After months of diplomatic negotiations, a decisive moment is approaching. According to information from government and Western circles, US President Donald Trump intends to announce the second phase of the Gaza agreement before Christmas. At the heart of this phase is an international committee that will oversee the reconstruction and political reorganisation of the coastal strip. Around ten leading figures from Arab and Western states are to be represented on this committee, flanked by an executive council of prominent international players. Tony Blair, Jared Kushner and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are to play central roles. This structure follows a clear formula that is already considered an internal guideline. The IDF is leaving the Gaza Strip, but Hamas is losing its power structures for good.
This is precisely where the most difficult line in the current talks lies. The mediators are working to persuade the terrorist organisation to completely renounce its weapons. A gradual process is being considered: first the heavy systems, then the light ones. For Israel, the crucial question remains whether an organisation that has spent years building up warheads, rockets and complex command structures is actually prepared to give them up completely. The American side is relying on pressure, guarantees and a regionally supported control system. For the Arab states, on the other hand, the future stability of Gaza is closely linked to the question of whether the population would recognise a civilian alternative to Hamas.
In Washington, it is said that all the building blocks are well advanced. Before the holidays, the US government wants to present its vision of a Gaza Strip that is building new structures without Hamas and without Israeli troops. For Trump, the timing has not only foreign policy implications, but also domestic political ones. He can present himself as the architect of a post-war model that integrates regional actors while clearly defining which powers must not be allowed to return.
Whether Hamas will agree to such a construct remains uncertain. As internal documents have recently shown, its leadership fears targeted attacks, international isolation and the loss of control. A ‘Board of Peace’ that intervenes deeply in security architecture, administration and reconstruction would end the organisation's decades-long monopoly-like rule. But this is precisely the prerequisite for any sustainable solution. Without an end to the structures of violence, without guaranteed security for Israel and without an administration that is not based on blackmail and oppression, the Gaza Strip will not find peace.
The coming weeks will determine whether Phase II will be a diplomatic success or another entry in the long list of failed reconstruction plans. For Israel, one thing is clear: withdrawal without a reliable successor structure is out of the question. For the United States, a great deal of political capital is at stake. And for the people of Gaza, perhaps the most important question of our time is: Will their future really change this time?