However, if there's a major population shift, and the group that has a 67% propensity for wanting that power consolidation starts considerably outnumbering the group that only has a 15% propensity for wanting that type of consolidation, things will change.
The stat you posted lines up with the global number as well in terms of preferences for that sort of thing.
30% of the 45% (~15%) of Christians in the US want that sort of thing
Globally, of the ~120 Christian majority countries, 31 have an official state religion (that number gets smaller when factoring whether or not it's reflected in law or gets special benefits)
Whereas, 34 of the 53 Muslim majority countries ended up with it.
It only takes a few decades for a voter composition to radically change when birth rates are disparate, and you stack immigration on top of that.
Now, this isn't even factoring in immigration, just forecasted growth based on available statistics just to show how quickly things can shift
AI disclaimer, I did outsource this to Anthropic's paid version of Claude using the premium tier Sonnet model (which is very accurate -- sources can be provided if you'd like as it cites them)
To the question of:
If you have a city that's currently comprised of
20,000 Christians
8,000 Muslims
3,000 Hindus
Given the current birth rates of these demographic groups in the US.
What would the population breakdown be in 40 years?
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for US Religious Groups:
- Christians: ~1.5-1.6 children per woman
- Muslims: ~2.5 children per woman (average of US-born at 2.2 and foreign-born at 2.6)
- Hindus: ~2.3 children per woman
The Math: Exponential Growth Model
For demographic projections, we use the formula:
P(t) = P₀ × e^(rt)
Where:
- P(t) = population at time t
- P₀ = initial population
- r = growth rate
- t = time in years
- e = Euler's number (≈2.718)
To calculate the growth rate from TFR, we need to convert fertility rates to annual growth rates. A simplified approach assumes:
r ≈ (TFR - 2.1) / 30
Growth rates:
- Christians: r ≈ (1.55 - 2.1) / 30 = -0.0183 per year
- Muslims: r ≈ (2.5 - 2.1) / 30 = 0.0133 per year
- Hindus: r ≈ (2.3 - 2.1) / 30 = 0.0067 per year
After 40 years:
- Christians: 20,000 × e^(-0.0183 × 40) ≈ 20,000 × 0.478 ≈ 9,560
- Muslims: 8,000 × e^(0.0133 × 40) ≈ 8,000 × 1.69 ≈ 13,520
- Hindus: 3,000 × e^(0.0067 × 40) ≈ 3,000 × 1.30 ≈ 3,900
Total population: ~26,980 (down from 31,000)
Percentages:
- Christians: 35.4% (down from 64.5%)
- Muslims: 50.1% (up from 25.8%)
- Hindus: 14.5% (up from 9.7%)
It happened much faster in those towns in Michigan, because as noted, when you layer immigration on top of it, that accelerates the shift.
No, but it's unequal treatment under the law. The sharia topic is a separate subject.
If I rolled around the neighborhood in a car with those loud subwoofers, blasting music at 6am, I'd get a ticket.