I say go by how you feel over the numbers a scale throws at you.
Muscle weighs more than fat so naturally if you burn fat and build muscle there will be a trade iff and for a season you will gain or at least not lose as much weight as you think you should
If you go by how you feel, it is far more likely to be encouraging rather than discouraging like a scale.
Also keep in mind, not everybody is built to carry weight the same, so not every numerical scale goal can be achieved and the person maintain health.
In my experience through the years and my own body... When I weighed in at the offical "ideal" weight for my height. I felt like a twig. Then I put on good weight and felt great even though the scale said I was over weight.
Being a guy I never had to battke baby pounds, but I did go from fit overweight to bad overweight due to eating more after quiting a 2.5 pack a day smoking habit and a new found love of cookies, but I still feel SOO much better soft and doughy over weight than I ever felt at "ideal".