How long to rebuild civilisation after an all out nuclear war?

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Yes - but Metro was a super-apocalypse with weird psychic forces loose on the surface and weird new biological / psychic / vampire monsters. When your whole food ecosystem is in the dark, it's a major disadvantage. That was a surrealist nightmare more than traditional post-apocalyptic literature. My son played the games and then told me about the books and I read the first two. They were both intriguing and deeply, deeply sad. I understand other authors now contribute to that world and that it is now absolutely huge - like the Star Wars universe?

Yeah, that's why I had the bit which said "unless you're a stickler for biology".
But they are a unique, interesting and semi-plausible way to view a post-apocalyptic society that is rebuilding itself. Obviously, minus the mutations and stuff (Don't personally remember any vampires in it. Do you mean the Dark Ones? Or did you do one look up STALKER and the Blood Suckers?).

There is an expanded universe of sorts, but I don't know how much of it is considered canon by Glukhovsky.

 

[eclipsenow]

Cool!

One level of technology that it might be possible to stabilise at is 1911.

There was a rather good Encyclopædia Britannica from that year, if you can still find one. And it was extremely practical: it told you how to do stuff and make things. Full of useful tips, like how to cut the stone blocks to make a lighthouse:

Yes! Exactly this! Old manuals and books and encyclopedias that people will read - by candlelight if necessary - after the day's farming is done to try and put the lights back on? So much of the scavenging will be for knowledge - whether that's books, hard drives, or server farms fired back up to try and recover certain youtube channels!

 

[eclipsenow]

Yeah, that's why I had the bit which said "unless you're a stickler for biology".
But they are a unique, interesting and semi-plausible way to view a post-apocalyptic society that is rebuilding itself. Obviously, minus the mutations and stuff (Don't personally remember any vampires in it. Do you mean the Dark Ones?).

Well, life draining forces that sort of just lurked in the tunnels. I remember one guy next to the hero in the first book muttering weird things about weird voices, and then suddenly saying "I just died" and dropping dead. The Dark Ones were so sad - such a misunderstood species.

There is an expanded universe of sorts, but I don't know how much of it is considered canon by Glukhovsky.

Always the issue with these things! But his first 2 novels were classic - even if disturbing.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Well, life draining forces that sort of just lurked in the tunnels. I remember one guy next to the hero in the first book muttering weird things about weird voices, and then suddenly saying "I just died" and dropping dead. The Dark Ones were so sad - such a misunderstood species.

They were so depressing. But a good example of human's inane fear of the unknown at play. Although the bit you mentioned... I don't think that was the Dark Ones since I think that was Bourbon who died and he died in a tunnel that was known for weird and creepy stuff like voices and such.
The Dark Ones just drove people insane.

Always the issue with these things! But his first 2 novels were classic - even if disturbing.

I got partway through book 2, got distracted by work related stuff and never finished it back up. I honestly aspire to that level of freaky writing.

And to be honest, I think we can call this finished since mentioning the Metro Series was all I could think of contributing to this thread and this thread could probably dissolve into a thread solely about the Metro Series, so I shall bug out now.

 

[eclipsenow]

...so I shall bug out now.

One last question - what do you see yourself doing if you survived as part of the one percent of a super-virus? What would be your contribution to this Brave New World?

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

One last question - what do you see yourself doing if you survived as part of the one percent of a super-virus? What would be your contribution to this Brave New World?

Well, I work in retail largely, so there's organizational stuff involved with that, making sure things are in their right place and making sure everything is stocked right, so maybe working with people who need to do scavenging or going with the scavengers, ala the Stalkers from Metro 2033 (that had to happen, it did).
Personal stuff, I do build miniature models and I am quite handy with screws and nails and other stuff so there's some form of building work that could be interspersed with readings on mechanics and engineering.
And lastly, I own a recurve bow. Not that I call myself a huntsman, but there'd be practice involved no doubt.

 

[Radagast]

Yes! Exactly this! Old manuals and books and encyclopedias that people will read - by candlelight if necessary - after the day's farming is done to try and put the lights back on? So much of the scavenging will be for knowledge - whether that's books, hard drives, or server farms fired back up to try and recover certain youtube channels!

Exactly. As people die, the knowledge in people's heads disappears from the planet.

But will the hard drives and server farms survive? In a zombie apocalypse, maybe. In a nuclear scenario, no.

As we move further away from physical books, civilisation becomes more fragile. Maybe some rich guy needs to set up "emergency libraries" in underground bunkers.

 

[eclipsenow]

As we move further away from physical books, civilisation becomes more fragile. Maybe some rich guy needs to set up "emergency libraries" in underground bunkers.

There are many government places around the world hardened against nuclear attack and various super-virus scenarios that have all this.

 

[Radagast]

There are many government places around the world hardened against nuclear attack and various super-virus scenarios that have all this.

But, like I said, if it all goes really bad you need a paper copy of the 1911 Encyclopedia Britannica. I doubt that they have that.

 

[eclipsenow]

There are large private bunker-villages for the wealthy.
45 unreal photos of 'billionaire bunkers' that could shelter the superrich during an apocalypse

There are many independent survivalist groups. Many of these would have hardened computers and electronics with the whole of wikipedia downloaded, and if not, good old fashioned books as you said. Also, many have specific "Primitive Tech" books that explain how to do things from the ground up! I mean, stone age to maybe Amish level. There's an Aussie guy in the Queensland bush that shows how to build stone-age axes, bow and arrow, huts with tiles, forges, even some basic small amounts of metal for a knife. But I hasten to add I don't think we'll go back to the stone age because even if nuked, our cities will still have fantastic supplies of hammers and drills and drill bits and copper and all the bits and bobs that make the world possible.
YouTube

Let alone the fact that doomsday prepping is a hobby of the rich and famous, and they'd have extensive private libraries on how to survive and thrive.
Survival of the Richest

Country towns not hit by the nukes would have libraries. And if it's a super-virus, maybe we'll get lucky and some of our big city national libraries would survive? Australia would have to act quick in archiving a lot of that in safe deep underground bunkers to avoid our 'natural nukes' - our megafires. I'm in my 50's and I've NEVER seen some of the weird mega-fire behaviour before. Some of it looked almost supernatural.

Anyway, if you need something relaxing to watch, try that Aussie Primitive Tech youtube channel because it's a zen thing. Here's how to make a bow and arrow.

 

[Radagast]

There are many independent survivalist groups. Many of these would have hardened computers and electronics with the whole of wikipedia downloaded

And what happens when they break down?

A lot of the "preppers" think about what they will need, not about what the 2nd and 3rd generation will need.

Also, many have specific "Primitive Tech" books that explain how to do things from the ground up! I mean, stone age to maybe Amish level.

I'd be interested in their choice of books.

Also, as I said, the Amish lifestyle assumes that somebody, somewhere, knows how to make tool steel. That's one of the tough technologies to rebuild.

Country towns not hit by the nukes would have libraries.

With lots of romance novels. Not so much practical stuff.

You'll probably find soap-making books in a country library, but not books on lye-making, for example.

 

[eclipsenow]

America alone has heaps of government bunkers that have everything to rebuild civilisation already in them, including all the knowledge. Watch this one - it mentions Mount Weather - which rings a bell if you've seen "The 100"? (That's my B-grade sci-fi for when I'm sick.)

These places are already loaded with all the knowledge we need - but the official plans are also to take certain individuals as well.

In truth, the depth and breadth of continuity planning — which focuses not just on surviving the catastrophe but also on rebuilding the country’s economy, society and democracy afterward — means that plans over the years have also gone further. Officials have imagined saving certain titans of industry, who would help restore the economy: President Dwight Eisenhower selected CBS News’s Theodore Kopp to be the head of a wartime censorship bureau, and a half-dozen other private-sector leaders to be national wartime economic czars. Other plans called for a “Doomsday press corps,” reporters who would be flown to the bunkers to help communicate with the public, and some companies like Shell Oil and Standard Oil even built their own bunkers for their executives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...5dbe26-736a-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html
​

Now here's a personal story. Years ago a family crisis elevated my general anxiety to the point where one of those peak oil doomer websites from the mid 2000's freaked me out. I got quite concerned about the state of the world, and looked into the whole doomsday prepper permaculture farm thing, and bought a few books on it. I never did leave my beloved Sydney, and those books are still on my shelves. They discuss everything from how to store food for long periods to how to do low tech chemistry, low tech refrigeration (without moving parts or engines, just some fire to cool!), and even how to make steel. Yup, steel. Some even talk about how to maintain good communities and set up your own local laws after a disaster, that sort of local culture building.

If I have them on my shelves - and I only flirted with this stuff - imagine what the hard corps true believers have? Also, steel can be recycled. We won't have to mine iron ore for generations - steel is abundant in our cities.

 

[Radagast]

Also, steel can be recycled. We won't have to mine iron ore for generations - steel is abundant in our cities.

The problem with a cannibalisation-based society is that it works for a few generations, by which time the knowledge of how to make things has completely evaporated.

 

[eclipsenow]

After a few generations the population would be back to the point where they could dedicate specialists to opening up that iron ore mine and learning how to do it. The crisis would be well and truly over, and the whole scientific enterprise back. But I'm sure they'd have not only first principles in encyclopedias, but have found the old mines and operations manuals by then - even old mining equipment lying around that they could reverse engineer to build new again.

Have you heard of Open Source Ecology? You know Free Open Source Software like Linux, Libreoffice, etc? These guys are trying to design FOSH - Free Open Source Hardware. They're designing cheap ways to build the top 50 tools of civilization on a DVD or a download or a printed out workbook. In other words, people will be able to mix and match parts from hardware stores and come up with a tractor or harvester or laser table.

* Open Source Ecology have $2.5 million in funding, and are moving full speed ahead!

* The information is free, but you must supply the parts and materials yourself, preferably recycled from local metal scrap and junk yards and parts workshops. This prevents cash going overseas into some giant multinational, but stays and employs local people where it does more good.

* Even with sourcing local parts and labour it is still roughly 8 times cheaper than buying corporate brand names! For example, to buy a new tractor in America is anywhere from $25,000 to $120,000. The OpenFarmTech.org tractor was only $12,000 — and that money largely went to local suppliers.

* Designed for built-in longevity — NO built-in obsolescence! Finished products are more durable than industry standards.

* Once you have built it you know how to repair it! Build it for life. Multinational corporations cannot lock you into expensive service contracts.

* When you can build it from local materials and local *generic* parts, you liberate yourself from being locked in to expensive and very *specific* name brand parts from overseas. EG: In building the Power Cube (their basic engine for everything from the tractor to the workshop) you are free to mix and match with any brand of solenoid or hydraulic pump as you wish, as long as they meet the specifications. There’s also no waiting for overseas parts — fix it today instead!

Power Cube II Bill of Materials - Open Source Ecology

* Parts are fully interchangeable. That might make for some unusual looking stuff, but at least it works! It’s like a giant Lego set, so once someone has built the drill press they can probably gain the confidence to move onto the egg incubator, earth-brick maker or the truly awesome, military looking tractor!

* This could save lives! Just 13 parts makes the 30 of the most important machines they’ve built so far. When a poor African farmer breaks an important part of his tractor, he can’t just buy a new tractor. He’ll lose too much money to buy a new tractor, and needs his tractor running so he doesn’t lose this season’s produce! This could be the difference between his kids going to school or not, or, if desperate enough, this could be the difference between them eating or not! But when you built your tractor from the same modular parts that you built other farm equipment from, then you can probably swap out the piece that day, or borrow it from your neighbour down the road, or visit the village that day and borrow it from the workshop. Because everyone will have these parts! Disaster averted.

* Includes plans for some cheap local renewable energy systems. It is better for an African village to have some intermittent, irregular wind power than have no electricity at all!

* Please pass this on to any Aid Workers or Missionaries you know in poorer parts of the world that might need a little help getting started, or even recovering from a natural disaster!

* 4 minute TED talk

* Video site and blog
Home | Open Source Ecology

* Wiki that links to plans and other resources
Pharmacy Technician Career Guide

 

[Radagast]

After a few generations the population would be back to the point where they could dedicate specialists to opening up that iron ore mine and learning how to do it.

If you've lost several centuries worth of knowledge and tech, you don't recover that overnight.

And there are multiple stages between iron ore and steel. You also need alloying metals like chromium, tungsten, and cobalt, which need to be refined as well. And you generally need high-pressure oxygen too.

The crisis would be well and truly over, and the whole scientific enterprise back.

It doesn't work like that. Where would your professors of engineering and metallurgy be?

These guys are trying to design FOSH - Free Open Source Hardware. They're designing cheap ways to build the top 50 tools of civilization on a DVD or a download or a printed out workbook. In other words, people will be able to mix and match parts from hardware stores and come up with a tractor or harvester or laser table.

But where do the parts come from? Can you handmake an "18 hp Engine"? That requires precision tools -- and you need precision tools to make the precision tools, which is a giant catch-22.

 

[eclipsenow]

But where do the parts come from? Can you handmake an "18 hp Engine"? That requires precision tools -- and you need precision tools to make the precision tools, which is a giant catch-22.

The parts come from hardware stores and millions of abandoned backyard toolsheds and they make a standardised block engine that fits the tractor, harvester, and other kit.

Also, they haven't lost the knowledge. The basics of physics and chemistry and metallurgy and the history of the development of science are in so many homes as high school and university text books all scattered across the country. There are even hobbist guilds that probably have half the knowledge needed. Indeed, I went to a Sydney Medieval day and learned that there are more old-fashioned Blacksmiths working today as a hobby than were alive back during the heyday of their industry, just because there are so many more people alive than during the middle ages. There's an over abundance of knowledge out there, scattered in different homes, and I'm just certain a full scale salvaging effort would find more than they needed to kick it all off again.

 

[Radagast]

The parts come from hardware stores and millions of abandoned backyard toolsheds and they make a standardised block engine that fits the tractor, harvester, and other kit.

Making the engine block and pistons is the tricky bit. That's micrometre-tolerance metalworking.

Also, they haven't lost the knowledge. The basics of physics and chemistry and metallurgy and the history of the development of science are in so many homes as high school and university text books all scattered across the country.

Well, if you run a technology-scavenging society for a few generations, all the people with knowledge in their heads die. The great-grandchild of an engineering professor will be at pretty much a medieval level. They won't understand the engineering textbooks that their great-grandparent taught from. Engineering is hard even with 12 years of full-time schooling under your belt.

And if this was actually true, we wouldn't need universities now. But in fact, only a genius like Srinivasa Ramanujan can learn mathematics on their own from books. And modern engineering needs a lot of mathematics.

There's an over abundance of knowledge out there, scattered in different homes, and I'm just certain a full scale salvaging effort would find more than they needed to kick it all off again.

Post-apocalypse, you could never make advanced silicon chips. Those require plants so expensive that the planet can only afford a couple now. Even 1960s discrete-component computers would be tough. Learning how to make discrete transistors again would require similar groups of experts to the ones that made it happen the first time.

If you could still do micrometre-tolerance metalworking, you might roll back to diesel-world. If not, you might need to shoot for the age of steam. But rolling back to medieval technology seems to me the most plausible scenario. Kind of like this classic book:

 

[Nithavela]

My vote is firmly behind Lord Humungous, the Warrior of the Wasteland, the Ayatolla of Rock'n'Roller.

 

[eclipsenow]

Now the Canticle is a book my father has raved about for years but I've never read. I guess I needed a break from the genre after The Road!

Anyway, first, there are a lot of chipsets now that various PC people could kludge together in different ways, especially with 99% of the population already gone. They could be used to help co-ordinate the build out of all this stuff, and this stuff is only necessary after you've already used up all the second hand industrial stuff. https://www.opensourceecology.org/gvcs/gvcs-machine-index/

As for actually making home computing? I'm a humanities geek, not a technical boffin. But a 99% fatality rate puts the population of New South Wales back from 7.5 million to just 75,000. The good side of this is there are plenty of computers to go around for a long time to come. The bad side is how do you store all that to last?

The interesting news is the electronics boffins don't seem to think it would be impossible for a backyard industry to make chips - but the first generation of newly cooked up future chips are going to be huge and ugly and like something from maybe the 1980's. But just think of the engineering feats 1980's computers were able to do? That's hardly Medieval.

Basically, after the shock of a civilisation melt down I'm hoping couples are feeling like lots of kids and that the average family size has more than 4 kids. That's a doubling every 25 years, which brings you from 75k to 1.2 million people in New South Wales in a century. By then, maybe they will be building their own 1980's chips - or just buying them in from America or China again. (Which will have much larger populations that have also grown up.)

Backyard chips at:-
Home Semiconductor Manufacturing

How to construct my own computer chips - Quora

Also note: they probably won't need to rebuild the Sydney Harbour Bridge (if it was nuked) until the population reaches a million anyway... which was where we were back in 1923 and we didn't really even have computers when we built the Habour Bridge. So old tech from the 1980's back in 1923 helping them engineer stuff certainly seems like a head start! This is where the 1% survivors will have such a weird world, where they know so much and can dream of so much, but are so limited by their lower industrial capacity. But knowledge from the 'future past' will be strong, and growing, and calling them.

 

[eclipsenow]

PS: America's population of 330 million would be down to 1% at 3.3 million.
Isn't that enough to get the clean rooms up and running again, even if only for the Federal government needs for new computers?

China's 1.4 billion would be down to 14 million. Isn't that enough for their clean rooms?