Earth in hot water? Worries over sudden ocean warming spike

sjastro said:

I used to be an AGW skeptic, not based on religious or political reasons, but finding no convincing argument to differentiate it from natural climate change until a climate scientist pointed out lower stratospheric cooling was the smoking gun which was predicted in the 1960's and confirmed by satellite measurements in the late 1970s .

Click to expand...

eclipsenow said:

Sure there are some politics after vast new amounts of information are gathered and old naming and category conventions need to be changed. None of this changes the fact that if you were to spend the money, you could get 2 large glass bottles and put 2 thermometers in each. Add just a little bit more CO2 to one than the other. The temperature in that bottle WILL go up. It's called physics. It's called reality. As my signature says: In 1856 Eunice Foote discovers CO2 traps heat. That's how she did it! 168 years ago!
View attachment 345223

And climate deniers want to challenge this? It's like challenging the temperature water boils at at sea-level, or other old stuff you look up in old books. We know the basic physics. We KNOW it's warming the planet. The hardest part sometimes is tracking down exactly where that heat is going and what it is going to do. EG: 91% of it ends up in the ocean, which is a mathematically chaotic system and there are some mysteries and nuances in there that are challenging some ocean models in some parts of the globe. But generally speaking - on the largest models - the trends are predictable. And bad. And now being increasingly confirmed with every year. And the effects are too broad and universal and yet complicated to also spell out here in one easy go - which is why I'm still working on an acronym that is a sufficient summary of it all over in the other thread.
But the bottom line? It makes every charitable or social concern we care about worse. It hurts the poor and vulnerable. It wrecks economies so there's less to share with the sick and poor and elderly. It hurts agriculture so there's less food to go around. And if it gets too bad - it could cause major powers wars. Christians have no business coming in and sneering at all this. It's like someone going in and sneering at MS patients and saying "You just don't have enough faith to get better" or something like that. It's not kind, not accurate, and not very moral.

Click to expand...

Estrid said:

Let's call it profoundly immoral.
Among a lot of other things.
None of whih align with christian
principles.

Click to expand...

Neogaia777 said:

Kinda makes you hate a lot of Christians, doesn't it?

Not just this subject, but everything they are very hypocritical/blind/stupid/evil about, etc.

Doesn't make you exactly want to be one, does it?

God Bless.

Click to expand...

Estrid said:

Let's call it profoundly immoral.
Among a lot of other things.
None of whih align with christian
principles.

Click to expand...

Neogaia777 said:

Kinda makes you hate a lot of Christians, doesn't it?

Not just this subject, but everything they are very hypocritical/blind/stupid/evil about, etc.

Doesn't make you exactly want to be one, does it?

God Bless.

Click to expand...

AV1611VET said:

This is what I sneer at:

First of all, tree huggers telling me we need to get onboard and start doing something about the climate, when said tree huggers:

1. drive gas-powered cars
2. have cement patios
3. have glass windows
4. use barbecue grills
5. have fireplaces
6. drink soda pop
7. use CO₂ extinguishers

Second of all, are you aware that the impact of one pound of N₂O is 265 times more potent than a pound of CO₂?

That's two hundred and sixty five.

So when I see tree huggers taking these issues seriously, I might consider how honest they are.

Click to expand...

sjastro said:

The notion climate change deniers are uneducated or just plain dumb is not seen in the data when it comes to Republican supporters where the more educated they are the less worried they become about climate change.

Click to expand...

AV1611VET said:

1. see a gas-powered car go by
2. walk on a cement patio
3. look out of a glass window
4. get invited to a barbecue
5. light a fire in a fireplace
6. drink a can of Coca-Cola
7. put out a fire with a CO₂ extinguisher

Click to expand...

eclipsenow said:

We can ...
We can ...
We can ...
We can ...
We can ...
We can ...

Click to expand...

eclipsenow said:

I have answered you before on this. Why are you just 'rinsing and repeating'? How am I to take you even remotely seriously when you just 'rinse and repeat' facile objections that I comprehensively shot down last time?

Click to expand...

eclipsenow said:

I think you mean the more educated they are in professional matters the more wealthy and entitled they become? You mean the rich and powerful don't care about the plight of the poorer in society - especially in as something as hard to grasp as climate change? You mean - there's a relationship between how educated and entitled rich (mostly white) Republicans become and how ready they are to just sneer at science and 'causes' and any of that lefty SJW stuff - and maybe have 'motivated reasoning' behind why they are NOT educated in what is actually pertinent to this thread - climate science?

Click to expand...

AV1611VET said:

I'm not talking about what you can do.

I'm talking about what you do do.

Click to expand...

"I don't really care what you believe about the bible or claim you've found in there - I only care if you’ve adopted 30 children! I’ll ONLY listen to you about your bible stuff when you’ve done that! Now run along…”​

​

An ‘extremely active’ hurricane season is headed our way, experts warn​

A key preseason hurricane forecast predicts nearly two dozen tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, posing heightened threats to U.S. coastline​

eclipsenow said:

I've written to all sorts of politicians, spoken at events, raised kids that care about both the gospel and climate change (and other ecological and indigenous issues) - and even published a few magazine articles. I'm doing what I can about this disaster!

Click to expand...

AV1611VET said:

Just wondering:

Did you do the same with any of these?

If so, which ones?

If not, why not?

In the May 2000 issue of Reason Magazine, award-winning science correspondent Ronald Bailey wrote an excellent article titled “Earth Day, Then and Now” to provide some historical perspective on the 30th anniversary of Earth Day. In that article, Bailey noted that around the time of the first Earth Day, and in the years following, there was a “torrent of apocalyptic predictions” and many of those predictions were featured in his Reason article. Well, it’s now the 45th anniversary of Earth Day, and a good time to ask the question again that Bailey asked 15 years ago: How accurate were the predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970? The answer: “The prophets of doom were not simply wrong, but spectacularly wrong,” according to Bailey. Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) started:

1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

7. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

9. In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

10. Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

11. Barry Commoner predicted that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.

12. Paul Ehrlich chimed in, predicting in his 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

13. Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.

14. Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'”

15. Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.

16. Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look that, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

17. In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”

18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

SOURCE

Click to expand...

Ophiolite said:

And as a consequence of many of these warnings responsible and inventive people took action. In regard to AGW responsible and inventive people are taking action, but we don't think we are yet doing enough. Meanwhile irresponsible people sit on the sidelines making up excuses for not taking action, or even going so far as to say action is not necessary. The two most likely explanations for the latter behaviour are inadequate education as to the severity of the situation, or an intrinsic malevolence.

Click to expand...

essentialsaltes said:

An ‘extremely active’ hurricane season is headed our way, experts warn​

A key preseason hurricane forecast predicts nearly two dozen tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, posing heightened threats to U.S. coastline​

Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that accounts for storms’ frequency and longevity, could rise nearly twice as high as normal, to a forecast 170 percent of average by the season’s end Nov. 30.

The researchers said their hurricane season forecast comes with more confidence than usual, and it includes the highest predictions the team has made in 40 years of producing these outlooks. Although hurricane season predictions aren’t rock-solid at this time of year, sea surface temperatures are so extreme across the Atlantic basin that stormy conditions appear all but assured.

That said, “having warm water does not guarantee hurricanes,” said Kim Wood, an associate professor of hydrology and atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona. Storm activity will also depend on the African monsoon season, which can send atmospheric disturbances into the Atlantic that serve as “seeds” for tropical cyclones, they said.

View attachment 345274

Click to expand...

AV1611VET said:

Just wondering:

Did you do the same with any of these?

If so, which ones?

If not, why not?

In the May 2000 issue of Reason Magazine, award-winning science correspondent Ronald Bailey wrote an excellent article titled “Earth Day, Then and Now” to provide some historical perspective on the 30th anniversary of Earth Day. In that article, Bailey noted that around the time of the first Earth Day, and in the years following, there was a “torrent of apocalyptic predictions” and many of those predictions were featured in his Reason article. Well, it’s now the 45th anniversary of Earth Day, and a good time to ask the question again that Bailey asked 15 years ago: How accurate were the predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970? The answer: “The prophets of doom were not simply wrong, but spectacularly wrong,” according to Bailey. Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) started:

1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

7. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

9. In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

10. Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

11. Barry Commoner predicted that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.

12. Paul Ehrlich chimed in, predicting in his 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

13. Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.

14. Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'”

15. Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.

16. Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look that, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

17. In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”

18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

SOURCE

Click to expand...

essentialsaltes said:

An ‘extremely active’ hurricane season is headed our way, experts warn​

A key preseason hurricane forecast predicts nearly two dozen tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, posing heightened threats to U.S. coastline​

Click to expand...