Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts

Paulos23

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Funny, when I go looking, I find articles like these:



Why should I trust your sources over these?
 
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Hans Blaster

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Hans Blaster

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sjastro

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I do not deny climate change it has been going on since the earth existed.
With all due respect you are a cast iron climate change denier.
You deny CO₂ is a major cause for AGW, make false claims the bulk of temperature measurements are made from the top of buildings when in reality they are from satellites measuring temperatures in the troposphere and stratosphere, and CO₂ has become a cult.

Climate change going on since the earth existed is not a convincing argument either as the following evidence shows based on satellite measurements.

1714434958477.png

Before humans destroyed the CO₂ equilibrium with the burning of fossil fuels when earth's climate warmed the lower stratosphere and troposphere both warmed and were in phase.

AGW produces an opposite effect, the troposphere warms up but the lower stratosphere cools.

1714435338857.png

I provided a math and thermodynamics free explanation of why lower stratospheric cooling is a unique signature for AGW in this post.
 
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AV1611VET

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I provided a math and thermodynamics free explanation of why lower stratospheric cooling is a unique signature for AGW in this post.

This was one doosey of a thread between two scientific powerhouses here: Glenn Morton (RIP) and Thaumaturgy.

The Holocene Deniers

Charts and pics were flying every which way!
 
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eclipsenow

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the evidence is in the data just look for it, i did not believe it myself until in canada they announced a carbon tax on gasoline, our P.M. Trudeau said he would plant 200 million trees, well, years later only 20 thousads, yes we still cut the trees for wood like decimate forest in french it is called coupe a blanc, I dont know the correct way to say it in English, sorry but it means to raze completely leaving nothing standing.

i posted for everyone to look for themselves it is o.k not to trust someone on the internet i get that no problem.

Blessings.
Conspiracy theorists of the world unite - you have nothing to lose but your credibility!
1714442161313.png
 
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Gene2memE

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the evidence is in the data just look for it, i did not believe it myself until in canada they announced a carbon tax on gasoline, our P.M. Trudeau said he would plant 200 million trees, well, years later only 20 thousads,

Your numbers are way out.

Trudeau said 2 billion (not 200 million) trees planted between 2020 and 2030. As of the end of August 2023, about 110 million trees had been planted (20 million ahead of target). Tree planting has happened at 2,900 different sites, involving 179 different projects.

If you can't even get basic numbers right (you're out by literally an order of magnitude) or bother to do bare minimum fact checking, why should anyone think you're able to get something complicated - like climate change - correct?
 
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Halbhh

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I know people prefer to believe the narrative from the news medias but sometimes the truth is elsewhere;


the person writing this article above is to be trusted.
We know there are many factors, and also I think we don't know them all, as I said above.

But, here's my thought..... Let me use a very good analogy that exactly fits, and tell me what you think....

Analogy:

Suppose you arrive to find your home is very warm -- in fact, really uncomfortably warm. (Perhaps it will turn out that a visiting 5 yr old grandkid before ya'll left the house the day before was curious and experimented by turned up the thermostat to 92F....)

Ok, what to do.

You check the programmable thermostat, but find it's already automatically set itself to the daily temperature reset (a nice setting of 72F maybe)....

Why not open the window and let some heat out?

What's your idea at this moment?

--------------------------


Climate is quite complex, but we can understand some/several important factors (even if we don't know all of them yet, as I suggested in my OP).

(If you already know the data (graph below), and if you already know the mechanism for infrared absorption, you'll still want to see the fascinating section on VENUS at the end)

One factor must be CO2 due to the observed and well understood fact that it absorbs and the re-emits infrared in a random new direction (so that infrared that had been traveling upward toward space but hits CO2 will then be re-radiated, so that about 1/2 will be aimed back downward towards the surface of Earth below).

Here's the temperature trend since about 1850, also graphed with CO2 in the atmosphere:

1714504021150.png

Yearly temperature compared to the twentieth-century average (red bars mean warmer than average, blue bars mean colder than average) from 1850–2022 and atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts (gray line): 1850-1958 from IAC, 1959-2019 from NOAA ESRL. Original graph by Dr. Howard Diamond (NOAA ARL), and adapted by NOAA Climate.gov.

--------------
For those interested, before looking at Venus, here's a brief Discussion of how this process works. (off the top of my head, from my background in physics):

It's experimentally known (fact) (and long understood also with old, well tested physics theory) that CO2 gas absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation in a random new direction.

So, what happens then is that sunlight/radiation that reaches the surface of Earth warms the surface due to absorption of that sunlight/radiation (the portion not reflected away). Next, that surface having been warmed by sunlight then radiates more infrared radiation proportionally to its warmed temperature.

This was discovered experimentally long ago.

The first quantitative conjecture based on experimental observation of hole radiation was:

Stefan’s Law (1879):

the total power P radiated from one square meter of black surface at temperature T goes as the fourth power of the absolute temperature:


P=σT^4, σ=5.67×10−8 watts/sq.m./K4.=4, =5.67×10−8 watts/sq.m./K4.

Five years later, in 1884, Boltzmann derived this T^4 behavior from theory....


So, as a surface heats up, it radiates more energy outward, and one key part of the spectrum of interest to us is the infrared, where a significant portion of all the radiation will be emitted, and normally could travel upwards through an atmosphere out into space, helping remove heat energy, so that if all the radiation radiated upward could escape, then the surface would reach equilibrium at some certain temperature, which we call the 'Blackbody Temperature'....

Now, since an atmospheric gas like CO2 is able to absorb and re-radiate infrared in all directions, for a given surface temperature below, the CO2 will reduce the total infrared escaping out into space since some of that infrared is re-directed by the CO2 back downward towards Earth's surface, where some of it is then absorbed near or on Earth's surface where it will help heat up both the nearby atmosphere and the surface more as some of that redirected infrared is absorbed.

======
fun example:
VENUS -- Atmosphere: > 96 percent carbon dioxide and about 3.5 percent molecular nitrogen.

A fascinating example is Venus -- since Venus has far more CO2 in its atmosphere than Earth, that much higher level of CO2 traps far more heat on Venus than does Earth's atmosphere, so that Venus is far hotter than it would be without so much CO2.

If Venus did not have something in its atmosphere to trap infrared, then Venus's average surface temperature at it's distance from the sun would be near to the its blackbody temperature at that distance from the sun, much closer then to the blackbody temperature for that level of sunlight (where Venus orbits) resulting in a blackbody temperature nearer to ~250 Kelvin.

But Venus is far hotter than ~250 Kelvin, due to heat trapping in its atmosphere.

The measured (by Russian probes) surface temperature of Venus is about ~ 740 Kelvin.
 
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JesusFollowerForever

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see the link below;



Here is what I know;

please see this link, it is one of many but hard to find.

water vapour varies in the atmosphere from about 2.5 to 5.5%, this gas has a GWP index factor of 300, this number is now almost impossible to find on the internet, you might have to go to a library to confirm, Personally I did confirm.

CO2 on the other hand has a value of 1, water vapour is 300 times more effective in trapping heat then CO2.

some graphs (data) exists that you have never seen in the news before such as;
1714509654450.png

you can find more of these on the internet, co2 is a contributor to global warming but a minor one only,

the gases in our fridges and ac units have a GWP's in the range of 35,000, imagine industrialization in Asia, China, India, since a few years ago, most now have ac's and fridges, i speculate here and did not research this but it might be a factor to consider seriously. it is not CO2 I am certain. I am not the only one to denounce that CO2 is NOT the main factor, thousands of climate scientists think the same, that is is something else than CO2 ( 0.04%) with the lowest GWP of 1!

Blessings.
 
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Paulos23

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sjastro

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see the link below;



Here is what I know;

please see this link, it is one of many but hard to find.

water vapour varies in the atmosphere from about 2.5 to 5.5%, this gas has a GWP index factor of 300, this number is now almost impossible to find on the internet, you might have to go to a library to confirm, Personally I did confirm.

CO2 on the other hand has a value of 1, water vapour is 300 times more effective in trapping heat then CO2.

some graphs (data) exists that you have never seen in the news before such as;
View attachment 346891
you can find more of these on the internet, co2 is a contributor to global warming but a minor one only,

the gases in our fridges and ac units have a GWP's in the range of 35,000, imagine industrialization in Asia, China, India, since a few years ago, most now have ac's and fridges, i speculate here and did not research this but it might be a factor to consider seriously. it is not CO2 I am certain. I am not the only one to denounce that CO2 is NOT the main factor, thousands of climate scientists think the same, that is is something else than CO2 ( 0.04%) with the lowest GWP of 1!

Blessings.
No one is disputing water vapour is a more effective greenhouse gas than CO₂.
The question is whether water vapour is the driver for AGW or is an effect of temperature increase providing a positive feedback loop which increases the magnitude of the temperature rise.

Here is the answer to the question.

1714512156358.png

As mentioned in a previous post lower stratospheric cooling is a consequence is of AGW caused by the increase of CO₂ levels.
Water vapour cannot explain lower stratospheric cooling because it does not form stable layers like CO₂ which is the mechanism for cooling as described in this post.

The only other possibility there is a component of natural warming where an increase in water vapour is due to greater solar forcing which is contradicted by the evidence.

1714512188625.png

The answer to the question is water vapour is not the driver for AGW or a product of natural warming.
A reduction in CO₂ levels will reduce temperatures which in turn decreases the positive feedback loop which water vapour provides in raising the temperature.
 
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JesusFollowerForever

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Here are articles ( see links below) that prove my point, about CO2 that it cannot be responsible for climate change.
no calculation even needed CO2 0.04% (which is 4 of then thousand )
to illustrate how ridiculous this is picture this;

place on the floor 10 thousand pennies take a picture, remove 4 pennies and take another picture do they look the same? Yes! CO2 is almost a trace molecule in the atmosphere also it if the lowest contributor of all the known gases causing global warming

with the lowest GWP of 1! it is obviously not the problem.


 
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FrumiousBandersnatch

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Recent global temperature figures suggest some unexpected tipping point has been passed. I've heard that some forests are near becoming or have become net emitters of CO₂ thawing permafrost is releasing rapidly increasing quantities of CH₄ (methane), and volcanic activity plays a role, but I assume those have been accounted for in the models...
 
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Hans Blaster

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Here are articles ( see links below) that prove my point, about CO2 that it cannot be responsible for climate change.
no calculation even needed CO2 0.04% (which is 4 of then thousand )
to illustrate how ridiculous this is picture this;

place on the floor 10 thousand pennies take a picture, remove 4 pennies and take another picture do they look the same? Yes! CO2 is almost a trace molecule in the atmosphere also it if the lowest contributor of all the known gases causing global warming
Your incredulity isn't an argument. CO2 is very opaque in the NIR and small amounts of it can absorb lots of IR radiation. Ozone (O3) is even more opaque, but in the NUV and absorbs most of the NUV light with even less concentration and only in a thin layer of the middle atmosphere.
with the lowest GWP of 1! it is obviously not the problem.
I don't know "GWP", but I'm going to guess that it is scaled to CO2. It would be like scaling all nuclear bombs to the Hiroshima explosion and saying "the Hiroshima bomb only had a strength of 1 Hiroshima bomb --- how did it destroy anything because there are bigger bombs."
Different lines in a spectrum of a molecule saturate at different column densities. The climatologists are aware of this. I haven't had the time to fully examine this work, but the references in discussion part imply motivated reasoning.
AEI is an industry funded think tank. They have run anti-AGW propaganda for decades.
This paper isn't particularly credible. I didn't check the specific claims in the link today.
The author seems to be arguing with various people about specific claims made in blogs, etc. I don't think the author is ready to dismiss GW like you are. It ends:

"And now, we humans have turned the thermostat up, with predictable results that we’re already observing — such as changes to permafrost in the Arctic that got me going on this post to begin with."

Oops.
 
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sjastro

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Here are articles ( see links below) that prove my point, about CO2 that it cannot be responsible for climate change.
no calculation even needed CO2 0.04% (which is 4 of then thousand )
to illustrate how ridiculous this is picture this;

place on the floor 10 thousand pennies take a picture, remove 4 pennies and take another picture do they look the same? Yes! CO2 is almost a trace molecule in the atmosphere also it if the lowest contributor of all the known gases causing global warming

with the lowest GWP of 1! it is obviously not the problem.
This argument employs the personal incredulity fallacy, you don’t understand the effects of CO₂ at low concentrations so therefore AGW associated with CO₂ must be wrong!!
The concentration of CO₂ is 0.04% = 400 ppm, by comparison the concentration of the O₃ (ozone) layer in the stratosphere is only 10 ppm and 0.3 ppm in the earth’s atmosphere overall.
Yet at this “ridiculously” low concentration it inverts the temperature altitude profile in the stratosphere and filters out high energy UV radiation from sterilizing life forms on earth out of existence.

Even at low concentrations in our atmosphere these gases have a considerable effect.
Did you try to comprehend this article because it clearly contradicts your requirement of needing high concentrations of CO₂ to have an effect.
It refers to CO₂ saturation where it is possible that further addition of the gas to the atmosphere will not result in further temperature increases.
At least the authors understand you don’t need high concentrations of CO₂ in order to have a saturation effect.

The problem however is when you add CO₂ to the atmosphere through fossil burning you are not simply mixing the gas in the atmosphere but displacing atmospheric gasses in the process.
This amounts to the CO₂ envelope thickness around the earth increasing or adding further layers of CO₂ in the model for lower stratospheric cooling.
In others words CO₂ saturation will not occur and the temperature will increase the more CO₂ is added.
Try reading the IPCC reports instead of concentrating on the doomsday scenarios.
You will find climate scientists are far more restrained.
This is an article over ten years old, couldn’t you find a more up to date conspiracy theory.
What is the point you are trying to make with this link which basically states CO₂ is a good thing at equilibrium levels but too much through fossil burning which destroys the equilibrium is bad?
 
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sjastro

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Since ozone has been mentioned in this thread it is instructive to show how gasses at trace levels can have a profound influence on the environment.
In the late 1970s it was found there was a steady lowering in the total amount of ozone in the Earth's atmosphere by about 4%, and a much larger springtime decrease in the ozone layer in the stratosphere around the Earth's polar regions.
The latter phenomenon is referred to as the ozone hole.
There were also springtime polar tropospheric ozone depletion events in addition to these stratospheric events.

ozone.png

The main causes for ozone depletion and the ozone hole are halocarbon refrigerants, solvents, propellants, and foam-blowing agents using chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), HCFCs, and halons.
These compounds are transported into the stratosphere by turbulent mixing after being emitted from the surface, mixing much faster than the molecules can settle. Once in the stratosphere, they release atoms from the halogen group through photodissociation, which catalyze the breakdown of ozone (O₃) into oxygen (O₂).
Ozone depletion was observed to increase as emissions of ozone depleting chemicals increased.

These chemicals were banned by 1989 and ozone levels started to stabilize by the mid-1990s and began to recover in the 2000s.
Furthermore the levels of the ozone depleting chemicals began to decrease with time.

ozone2.png

Note the concentration levels are of the order of ppb. (1 ppb = 0.0000001%).
Yet even a small reduction in these already minute levels has had a considerable effect on ozone.

3nwPKxq.jpg

By comparison we are "suffocating" in CO₂ and ozone depletion and recovery serves to show emissions even in trace amounts can have an enormous effect on the environment.
 
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essentialsaltes

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Here are articles ( see links below) that prove my point, about CO2 that it cannot be responsible for climate change.
no calculation even needed CO2 0.04% (which is 4 of then thousand )
to illustrate how ridiculous this is picture this;

place on the floor 10 thousand pennies take a picture, remove 4 pennies and take another picture do they look the same? Yes! CO2 is almost a trace molecule in the atmosphere also it if the lowest contributor of all the known gases causing global warming
Something is ridiculous all right. The absolute magnitude of a number doesn't tell us much of anything.

"The oral LD50 for arsenic trioxide, sodium arsenite, and calcium arsenate in mice and rats ranged between 15 and 293 [ppm]"
 
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AV1611VET

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By comparison we are "suffocating" in CO₂ and ozone depletion and recovery serves to show emissions even in trace amounts can have an enormous effect on the environment.

When I see pictures of the ozone layer today, I get the impression as to how God is going to orchestrate the end times events.

God predicted wars and famines and pestilences and earthquakes as the "beginning of sorrows" ...

Matthew 24:8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.

... and this ozone depletion looks as if it is one of the methods He is going to use to fulfill His prophecies.
 
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Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory just captured ominous signals about the planet’s health

Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever.

Atmospheric levels of planet-warming carbon dioxide aren’t just on their way to yet another record high this year — they’re rising faster than ever, according to the latest in a 66-year-long series of observations.

Carbon dioxide levels were 4.7 parts per million higher in March than they were a year earlier, the largest annual leap ever measured at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration laboratory atop a volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island. And from January through April, CO2 concentrations increased faster than they have in the first four months of any other year.

1715442318674.png
 
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Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory just captured ominous signals about the planet’s health

Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever.

Atmospheric levels of planet-warming carbon dioxide aren’t just on their way to yet another record high this year — they’re rising faster than ever, according to the latest in a 66-year-long series of observations.

Carbon dioxide levels were 4.7 parts per million higher in March than they were a year earlier, the largest annual leap ever measured at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration laboratory atop a volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island. And from January through April, CO2 concentrations increased faster than they have in the first four months of any other year.

View attachment 347648
It is ironic that such elevation of concentration should be so depressing on the human spirit.
 
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