Earth in hot water? Worries over sudden ocean warming spike

[Halbhh]

We do not have millions of years of actual data ... I'm not the one in denial here ... the models used outside of actual climate data we have are a concept NOT ACTUAL DATA.

I'm not the one in denial here ....

Actual data available

Scientists mark the start of modern global record-keeping at roughly 137 years ago, in 1880. That's because earlier available climate data doesn't cover enough of the planet to get an accurate reading,

The oldest continuous temperature record is the Central England Temperature Data Series, which began in 1659, and the Hadley Centre has some measurements beginning in 1850, but there are too few data before 1880 for scientists to estimate average temperatures for the entire planet.

Models based on anything earlier 1880 than that are concepts (ideas) not facts (no real data)

Climate models are based on concepts (ideas) NOT real available data.

Hi, suppose one hears a theory about a natural cause of climate change that isn't man made -- that wouldn't change the fact that we are adding a lot of CO2 to the atmosphere and that CO2 factually increases heat retention proportionally to it's quantity on any planet by a well established physical process of absorbing infrared radiation and then reemitting it in a random direction, thus slowing the escape of radiated heat from a planet, causing it to be warmer than it would be without the CO2. I'd like to offer you someone to talk with and sound out ideas on science that won't misrepresent your posts, won't make up straw men to knock down, etc., and could talk with you about it more reasonably and civilly than many who post here, so consider me a friend to talk with about it. I've been very busy the last month or 2, but even if I'm gone a day or a week at a time, I'll eventually come back to respond.

You're correct to think that climate models can fail at some point in the future to correctly anticipate something, of course, but that won't change one factor we can usefully address: the general trend we see in relation to CO2 level we can do something about:

This site has a couple of useful graphs of data https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/if-carbon-dioxide-hits-new-high-every-year-why-isn’t-every-year-hotter-last

Peak CO2 & Heat-trapping Emissions | Climate Central

Heat-trapping emissions have continued to increase—and atmospheric CO2 is on track to reach record-high concentrations this month.

www.climatecentral.org

 

[eleos1954]

We are talking about climate models. There is lots of data.

Of course there is. It's not daily temperature records for individual places, but there is data about the climate 1,000,000 years ago.

Sure we do. We have more detailed data from now than then, but we do have data from a few thousand years ago. We have more detail from 2005 than from 1955, but that doesn't mean we must not use the data from 1955 because it is not as complete or detailed as the 2005 data.

This is just denialism. Climatology has gobs of data.

There is data collected and that data is interpreted .... climate models go before actual data collected .... the models assume (scientific ideas) about what went on before "the time period" before that of collecting actual data.

Time

Time itself is an illusion ... planet earth was not ground zero in relation to when time began ... according to science.

Time cannot exist without consciousness. Time only exists in the human mind. It is a human construct.

What time is it on Venus, Mars etc?

If planet earth was non existent ... what time is it? Without mankind on planet earth how would time be calculated or realized? Impossible.

There are several theories and perspectives on the nature of time, and they offer different explanations and interpretations.

Theories and interpretations about time .... not fact.

Many scientists and philosophers argue that time is not a fixed and objective reality, but rather a subjective and human-made illusion. As Albert Einstein once famously said, “People like us who believe in physics know that the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Have no idea why you brought up the liver thing .... we are talking about (at least I was) the premise of the idea/theory of how life began on earth according to the theory of evolution.

This you?

No one has ever actually observed a genuine mutation occurring in the natural environment which was beneficial (that is, adding useful genetic information to an existing genetic code), and therefore, retained by the selection process.

 

[The Barbarian]

There is data collected and that data is interpreted .... climate models go before actual data collected .... the models assume (scientific ideas) about what went on before "the time period" before that of collecting actual data.

I notice Jame Hanson's model precisely predicted our warming trend over 30 years earlier, based only on CO2 emissions.

If planet earth was non existent ... what time is it? Without mankind on planet earth how would time be calculated or realized? Impossible.

Does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody really care? If so, I can't imagine why.

 

[The Barbarian]

Reactions: essentialsaltes

I figured someone would get it.

 

[The Barbarian]

This you?

As you know, there are lots of observed mutations that benefit the population in which they occurred. I'd be happy to provide some, if anyone else wants to know.

 

[AV1611VET]

Worries over sudden ocean warming spike.

If you are genuinely worried, raise your hand.

 

[The Barbarian]

If you are genuinely worried, raise your hand.

I don't have any property on the gulf coast or in the Great Plains, so it probably won't directly affect me for some years to come.

 

[essentialsaltes]

If you are genuinely worried, raise your hand.

I don't live in a hurricane zone. We already have a bet (of sorts) on the storm season, so (in time) we'll see if there was sufficient reason to worry.

 

[Hans Blaster]

There is data collected and that data is interpreted .... climate models go before actual data collected .... the models assume (scientific ideas) about what went on before "the time period" before that of collecting actual data.

We build models to interpret data. That's just what happens. You seem to be claiming the climatologists don't know what they are doing. I've seen nothing to indicate that you have the requisite knowledge or experience to critique their methods.

Time

Time itself is an illusion ...

Time is one of the coordinates of spacetime -- the fabric of reality. It is not an illusion.

planet earth was not ground zero in relation to when time began ... according to science.

So what? It has nothing to do with the topic.

Time cannot exist without consciousness. Time only exists in the human mind. It is a human construct.

No. See my earlier response. Time exists without humans (and did for about 13.7 billion years).

What time is it on Venus, Mars etc?

Not relevant to Earth climate.

If planet earth was non existent ... what time is it? Without mankind on planet earth how would time be calculated or realized? Impossible.

The Earth does exist. That is why we care about the Earth climate data.

There are several theories and perspectives on the nature of time, and they offer different explanations and interpretations.

Theories and interpretations about time .... not fact.

Not relevant to the question at hand.

Many scientists and philosophers argue that time is not a fixed and objective reality, but rather a subjective and human-made illusion. As Albert Einstein once famously said, “People like us who believe in physics know that the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.

Again, so what. Not relevant to the question at hand. Silly distractions are noted.

 

[dlamberth]

If you are genuinely worried, raise your hand.

Concerned for my children and grandchildren, I raise my hand.

 

[sjastro]

Does anybody really know what time it is?

Chicago does.
(This post is about as relevant as others in this thread).

 

[eclipsenow]

It's just getting so much worse!

El Nino's are arriving more frequently, are hotter, and are longer.
Coral bleaching events are the same.
Bleaching used to last maybe 2 weeks - now it's multiple months.
Individual corals can take 5 years to recover to their full health and ability to reproduce.
But the whole ecosystem takes even longer.

A few years back the largest bleaching event in recorded history affected 56% of the world's ocean.
This year it's smaller - for now - but growing 1% per week.

 

[Shemjaza]

If you are genuinely worried, raise your hand.

I am genuinely worried about the long term consequences, absolutely I'll raise my hand for that.

But that doesn't mean I foresee imminent danger to my self or my community... this is going to be a serious long term problem that will lead to massive damage to human agriculture and the general order of natural ecology.

I really worry about wide scale collapse leading to an increase in famines and wars... which will in turn lead for further collapse.

 

[eclipsenow]

But that doesn't mean I foresee imminent danger to my self or my community... this is going to be a serious long term problem that will lead to massive damage to human agriculture and the general order of natural ecology.

I really worry about wide scale collapse leading to an increase in famines and wars... which will in turn lead for further collapse.

Absolutely. And when one considers that Christians are meant to be leading the charge in loving their neighbours as themselves - it's pretty hypocritical and not a good look at all to turn around and say "Oh, I trust in God instead." There are both New Testament verses that condemn that sort of self-centred behaviour - and some pretty colourful terms for it in secular literature as well! It of course deserves both barrels at point blank range.

 

[Ophiolite]

Absolutely. And when one considers that Christians are meant to be leading the charge in loving their neighbours as themselves - it's pretty hypocritical and not a good look at all to turn around and say "Oh, I trust in God instead." There are both New Testament verses that condemn that sort of self-centred behaviour - and some pretty colourful terms for it in secular literature as well! It of course deserves both barrels at point blank range.

This reminded me of a conversation with two Egyptian colleagues whom I worked with in Cairo. Both were devout Muslims, but they were decrying the attitude of some of their fellow Muslims that when bad things happened it was Allah's will. Their view was that Allah expected people to use their physical and mental skills to try to avoid, or solve problems. This view, they argued, was well supported by verses in the Koran. I find the parallels between the two situations fascinating.

 

[AV1611VET]

Absolutely. And when one considers that Christians are meant to be leading the charge in loving their neighbours as themselves - it's pretty hypocritical and not a good look at all to turn around and say "Oh, I trust in God instead." There are both New Testament verses that condemn that sort of self-centred behaviour - and some pretty colourful terms for it in secular literature as well! It of course deserves both barrels at point blank range.

Polishing brass on a sinking ship, are you?

 

[Shemjaza]

Polishing brass on a sinking ship, are you?

No, desperately grabbing provisions and tossing them into life boats so the survivors have a better chance.

 

[AV1611VET]

No, desperately grabbing provisions and tossing them into life boats so the survivors have a better chance.

Jonah 1:5 Then the mariners were afraid, and cried every man unto his god, and cast forth the wares that were in the ship into the sea, to lighten it of them. But Jonah was gone down into the sides of the ship; and he lay, and was fast asleep.

 

[eleos1954]

I notice Jame Hanson's model precisely predicted our warming trend over 30 years earlier, based only on CO2 emissions.


Does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody really care? If so, I can't imagine why.

Well ... here is the thing .... it's not that I (or others) don't believe (know) the climate is changing .... it is .... and it will .... what the difference is .... is what is causing it. The Bible teaches the earth is in fact dieing and that climatic events will worsen. We believe (know) that God is in control of everything and things will play out according to how He says it will ... no matter what we do or do not do.

Does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody really care? If so, I can't imagine why.

As a evolutionist ... one must consider this because in order for evolution to be believed time is the major factor .... billions of random occurrences happening over billions of years ... without significant passage of "time" the theory falls completely flat.

So ... if time is an illusion (and it is) because it can only exist because of the human mind and time is calculated in accordance with planet earth.

To many physicists, while we experience time as psychologically real (mind), time is not fundamentally real.