NY Times - Trump Leads in 5 Critical States

[ThatRobGuy]

Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.

www.nytimes.com

Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.

Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.



Apart from me beating the dead horse and asking "isn't there anyone else they can put up to take on Trump?"
(In a year from now, I suspect I may be able to get a lot of mileage out of this Randy Marsh moment)

From a strategic perspective, is it possible that due to certain demographics that Biden has tended to rely on (younger progressives), he may be in a situation where he can't tout a few of his policy decisions/accomplishments specifically because doing so would cause some backlash? So he's being left with the choices of A) coming across as totally ineffective or B) bragging about some of those accomplishments, to the disgust of some of his younger progressive voters?


To highlight what I'm talking about here... per those polls, 2 of the key areas that stick out where people (predominantly independent and swing state voters) claim they don't have confidence in him, is in the economy and in border security.

For instance, one example that I think highlights what I'm talking about is Biden's approval of new drilling permits. While it's obvious we shouldn't be trying to stay with fossil fuels long term, in the interim, while we're waiting for alternatives to get up to speed, approving those permits makes sense and was the right move on his part. If we are going to be stuck using some oil in the short term, it'd be better to get it ourselves than acquire it from countries of dubious morals who could have every interest in price gouging.

An example of he other would be his recent moves to tighten up the border, another solid move on his part.


The problem? He can't stand up in front of a young progressive audience and tout "I approved more new drilling permits than Trump, and I'm taking strong measures to stop the flow of illegal immigration"... saying that isn't really a "flex" in front of that crowd.



Another bit of trouble he may have is due to his stances on the Israel/Hamas conflict. We know which side the young progressives are on...he's on the other, and not only that, Trump's rhetoric against Netanyahu has been harsher than Biden's.

Israel, White House condemn Trump for remarks about Hamas attack, 'smart' Hezbollah

Israel and the White House on Thursday condemned remarks by Donald Trump in which he praised the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over an attack by Palestinian Hamas militants that killed more than 1,300 people in Israel.

www.reuters.com

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/13/politics/donald-trump-israel-netanyahu-diplomacy/index.html

Immediately following the Hamas attack, the media outlets bashed Trump for his statements against Netanyahu as being "irresponsible and unhinged"...the problem? A lot changes in a month and now Trump's verbal attacks on Netanyahu and Israel are closer to the progressive public sentiment than Biden's rhetoric has been. Now obviously it goes without saying that those progressives aren't going to be voting for Trump, but they could be inclined to either stay home on election day or do a third party spite vote as a result.

 

[durangodawood]

People are stupid. They look at conditions and mainly ignore decisions.

The questions they should ask - but generally dont - are: what different decisions would make better outcomes? And who will make those decisions?

Insead its just feely feels about the "world feels strange and wrong." We'll keep bouncing back and forth for the foreseeable future as global conditions will pretty much ensure a sense of chaos in the world. The incumbent from whatever side will take the hit no matter what the actual proposals are. This is a generalization of course and there are exceptions here and there.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump

Mindboggling!

 

[durangodawood]

Its also interesting that theres a category in the polling called "democracy".

Now we have to evaluate whos the likeliest to erode our actual system of voting to express the consent of the governed. That is new, and I think we know why its in the mix.

 

[wing2000]

Another bit of trouble he may have is due to his stances on the Israel/Hamas conflict. We know which side the young progressives are on...he's on the other, and not only that, Trump's rhetoric against Netanyahu has been harsher than Biden's.

I suspect some of the progressive drop in support is due to Biden's solid support of Israel.

 

[Brihaha]

Maybe these poll responders are simply motivating Mr Biden to face reality and drop out of the race? Surely Joe is wise enough to see which way the wind blows? The early polls are supposedly used for something. Perhaps to inspire other candidates as well as voters. I have heard some people are not honest with pollsters and there's probably an ulterior motive for this dishonesty.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

People are stupid. They look at conditions and mainly ignore decisions.

And it's especially disadvantageous for a candidate regarding decisions they've made where you can draw a line from the decision -> improved condition, but they can't talk themselves up for it due to attitudes from some in their own party.

The example I provided were the actions taken by Biden with regards to approving some new drilling and taking some decisive actions on border security. Both good decisions, and ones that you can draw a straight line to and improvement in conditions.

But can you imagine if he tried to tout that as a "Flex" while giving a speech at a progressive college? He may get booed.

Similar to the way Trump got booed in his "home field" when he tried to tout the vaccines and operation warp speed as accomplishments (albeit, exaggerating his own involvement...he talks like he was in the lab making them himself, but none the less). Obviously the vaccines and warp speed led to improved conditions with regards to a problem.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Mindboggling!

As my grandfather says sometimes it may be a situation of trusting him over the other guy. no, I am not not using the other guy's name trying to be disrespectful; instead am speaking in general terms of voting against someone instead of for someone no matter who the parties happen to be for example there may well be people out there who are voting more against Trump than for Biden. That is one of the major problems with a two-party system.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Maybe these poll responders are simply motivating Mr Biden to face reality and drop out of the race? Surely Joe is wise enough to see which way the wind blows? The early polls are supposedly used for something. Perhaps to inspire other candidates as well as voters. I have heard some people are not honest with pollsters and there's probably an ulterior motive for this dishonesty.

My mother always says she does not put much stock in polls even when she happens to be on the right side of what the polls show.

 

[Brihaha]

My mother always says she does not put such stock in polls even when she happens to be on the right side of what the polls show.

She sounds honest and wise. It was a blessing for me to grow up and learn from my own honest and fairly wise mother. Political polls are a big business now and grifters are exploiting these polls for profit. I suspect this early data is difficult to parse for accuracy.

 

[comana]

She sounds honest and wise. It was a blessing for me to grow up and learn from my own honest and fairly wise mother. Political polls are a big business now and grifters are exploiting these polls for profit. I suspect this early data is difficult to parse for accuracy.

I am leery of polling data. Questions can be worded to lead towards a biased response and where are they finding people to respond? If by phone, there are entire age groups who will not even answer a number that they do not know. My Boomer parents even screen all incoming calls with an answering machine and have for over 20 years.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

As my grandfather says sometimes it may be a situation of trusting him over the other guy.

But then there is the issue of "trust" v. policies. Would we rather have someone honest whose policies we do not like. Or someone dishonest whose polices we agree with? I vote for character and virtue even if I don't agree with specific polices.

 

[rambot]

So we're back to trusting polls again?


Dang! I'm gonna get whiplash if I'm not careful ...

 

[KCfromNC]

At this point in 2015, polls were talking about potential GOP candidate Carson's lead against potential DNC candidate Clinton.

Just saying, it might be overreacting to radically switch course based on polling a year out from the general election.

 

[dzheremi]

I don't want to vote for Biden. No one I know wants to vote for Biden. He's just all that's on offer that isn't Trump. I assume people in these battleground states feel the same way, but going in the opposite direction.

 

[dogs4thewin]

But then there is the issue of "trust" v. policies. Would we rather have someone honest whose policies we do not like. Or someone dishonest whose polices we agree with? I vote for character and virtue even if I don't agree with specific polices.

Well that is what I was saying maybe they trust neither. ( I do not know of course) so then it is who do you trust more sometimes among other factors.