Violent crime has increased under Harris-Biden admin — after ABC’s David Muir disputed Trump’s claim that crime is ‘through the roof’: DOJ report

[The Barbarian]

And in the end helped them right out of Marthas Vinyard. So yes it does fit.

There isn't much industry in Martha's Vineyard, but the people of that community took in the refugees (they were fleeing a Marxist dictatorship in Venezuela) fed them, housed them, and helped them find jobs.

That's not the only difference. Ron DeSantis tricked them into getting on a plane to Martha's Vineyard, and then left them stranded there. The community had to step up to take care of them. In Sylacauga the immigrants came in to fill jobs and needed no such help.

 

[The Barbarian]

Calculating offending rates for a specific group is usually a simple operation: First count the number of arrests in that group, then divide by the group’s total number of people. For undocumented immigrants, however, both numbers have been difficult to estimate in the past.

To count the total number of undocumented immigrants in Texas (i.e., the denominator of the offense rate), this study used data from the Center for Migration Studies, which the authors called “one of the most reliable, respected, and peer-reviewed sources on the undocumented immigrant population.”[6]

But the real innovation of this study was in counting the number of arrests within Texas’s undocumented population (i.e., the numerator of the offense rate). To find that number, the study relied on a unique feature of the state’s legal system. When a Texas law enforcement agency arrests someone, they are legally required to look up that person’s place of birth and citizenship. To do that, agencies send the person’s fingerprints to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which reports the person’s immigration status. This status becomes part of any criminal record in Texas.

As the study’s authors write, “To our knowledge, Texas is the only state that requires the determination and documentation of immigration status as part of its standard criminal justice records practice. …Simply put, no other data source in the United States could accomplish this task with the same degree of breadth, rigor, and detail.”[7]

Examining only the overall immigrant offending rate (i.e., documented and undocumented immigrants combined) obscures meaningful differences between these two groups. Because of the unique nature of Texas’s arrest records, the authors could reliably separate arrests of undocumented immigrants from those of documented immigrants (including naturalized U.S. citizens).[8] Disentangling the groups’ arrest records gave the study an unprecedented window into how their offending patterns differ from each other and from those of U.S.-born individuals. Future research should explore whether these findings are replicated in other states and localities, including those with different shares of immigrant populations and variations in immigration enforcement policies.[9]

Undocumented Immigrant Offending Rate Lower Than U.S.-Born Citizen Rate

An NIJ-funded study examining data from the Texas Department of Public Safety estimated the rate at which undocumented immigrants are arrested for committing crimes. The study found that undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent and...

nij.ojp.gov

 

[BPPLEE]

Violent Crime Dropped in 2023 Despite Trump Saying Crime 'Through the Roof'

Despite former President Donald Trump recently stating that crime is "through the roof," violent crime dropped in 2023, according to FBI statistics released on Monday. Overall, violent crime declined an estimated 3 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, the FBI report said, signaling a continued downward trend after the spike that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In addition, homicides and non-negligent manslaughter dropped by nearly 12 percent.
Monday's report comes after violent crime surged in the early years of the pandemic, with homicides jumping nearly 30 percent in 2020, marking the largest single-year increase since the FBI began tracking these statistics. Experts have cited a range of factors behind this rise, from economic stress to disruptions caused by the pandemic and escalating gun violence.

Violent crime dropped in 2023 despite Trump saying crime "through the roof"

Amid the 2024 election, violent crime dropped 3 percent in 2023, according to FBI statistics released on Monday.

www.newsweek.com

Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats

When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a

www.realclearinvestigations.com

 

[Vambram]

Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats

When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a

www.realclearinvestigations.com

I wonder how the liberals will respond to this?

 

[rjs330]

I just read an article on this. Turns out Trump was correct. It did increase and rhe FBI numbers used by the left were incorrect just as we all suspected. All these posts and liberal articles lauding that the crime was down. We all.point3d out that they were missing information and we were told it didn't matter really. Crime was down. No it wasn't. Rhe numbers were put out as if accurate and when all the data came in, it was up. The numbers were fudged. How quiet has the media at large been on this change? Where's all the mainstream media outlets front paging this stuff like they did when they though crime was down. Makes one wonder what else they are hiding from us or not being fully honest about it.

 

[The Barbarian]

I just read an article on this. Turns out Trump was correct. It did increase and rhe FBI numbers used by the left were incorrect just as we all suspected.

Sorry, you've been betrayed by people you trusted.

US stats show violent crime dramatically falling, so why is there a rising clash with perception?​

"I don't believe the statistics," said Auriol Sonia Morris, a Trump supporter.
With 2023 ticking down, the nation is poised to finish the year with its biggest annual drop in homicides on record, according to preliminary data from law enforcement agencies both large and small.

The homicide rate in the United States is expected to plummet nearly 13% compared to 2022, meaning more than 2,000 fewer people were the victims of homicide this year, Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst, told ABC News.

The drop in homicides comes as more than three-quarters of Americans say there is more crime in the U.S. than a year ago and more than half of Americans say the same about crime in their local area, according to a Gallup poll released last month. Adding to that perception is the annual National Crime Victimization Survey published this month by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics that found the number of violent crime victims nationwide climbed from 16.5 per 1,000 people in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022.

Cities say the 2023 drop in homicides and other violent crimes can be attributed to expanded efforts to prevent crime, including working with community volunteers, targeting gun possession in high-crime areas and placing officers on foot and bike patrols.

"It is historic. It's the largest one-year decline," said Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and a former crime analyst for the CIA and the New Orleans Police Department. "It's cities of every size, it's the suburbs, it's rural counties, tiny cities, it's large cities. It's really a national decline."

Homicide numbers poised to hit a record decline nationwide. But most Americans think murder is on the rise

With less than a week to go in 2023, the nation is poised to finish the year with its biggest yearly drop in homicides on record.

abcnews.go.com

Homicide numbers poised to hit a record decline nationwide. But most Americans think murder is on the rise

With less than a week to go in 2023, the nation is poised to finish the year with its biggest yearly drop in homicides on record.

abcnews.go.com

And the expected response: "THE POLICE ARE ALL LYING!!!!"

 

[The Barbarian]

I wonder how the liberals will respond to this?

From the report you cited...
Violent crime consists of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and
aggravated assault. Nationwide, from 2022 to 2023, the estimated volume of violent
crime offenses showed the following changes:
Violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent.
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter decreased an estimated 11.6 percent.
Rape decreased an estimated 9.4 percent.
Robbery decreased an estimated 0.3 percent.
Aggravated assault decreased an estimated 2.8 percent.
An estimated 1,218,467 violent crime offenses were committed in 2023, indicating a
rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, down from the 2022 offense rate of
377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.
(page 3)

I know, I know... the excuse is always the same: "THE FBI (or whoever) ARE ALL LYING!!!"

Realistically, if they were lying, why would they even bother to upgrade their report when new data came in? They wouldn't. You're trying to sell the story that they lied, but then made a correction. That's not what liars do.

Have you ever seen Trump back off on a lie and correct himself?

 

[Vambram]

From the report you cited...
Violent crime consists of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and
aggravated assault. Nationwide, from 2022 to 2023, the estimated volume of violent
crime offenses showed the following changes:
Violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent.
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter decreased an estimated 11.6 percent.
Rape decreased an estimated 9.4 percent.
Robbery decreased an estimated 0.3 percent.
Aggravated assault decreased an estimated 2.8 percent.
An estimated 1,218,467 violent crime offenses were committed in 2023, indicating a
rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, down from the 2022 offense rate of
377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.
(page 3)

I know, I know... the excuse is always the same: "THE FBI (or whoever) ARE ALL LYING!!!"

Realistically, if they were lying, why would they even bother to upgrade their report when new data came in? They wouldn't. You're trying to sell the story that they lied, but then made a correction. That's not what liars do.

Have you ever seen Trump back off on a lie and correct himself?

Your post directly contradicts the following analysis.
Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats

 

[The Barbarian]

Your post directly contradicts the following analysis.

You link is glitching for some reason.
But I would think the FBI is the authority on what their analysis says. I reposted the numbers from that report below:

You provided the first link. If you didn't read it carefully, and missed the bottom line:

From the report you cited...
Violent crime consists of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and
aggravated assault. Nationwide, from 2022 to 2023, the estimated volume of violent
crime offenses showed the following changes:
Violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent.
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter decreased an estimated 11.6 percent.
Rape decreased an estimated 9.4 percent.
Robbery decreased an estimated 0.3 percent.
Aggravated assault decreased an estimated 2.8 percent.
An estimated 1,218,467 violent crime offenses were committed in 2023, indicating a
rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, down from the 2022 offense rate of
377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.
(page 3)

It's not the first time one of us did that. It's happened to me. Not lately. Because it is hugely embarrassing, and it has made me more careful about that kind of thing. Still, it's always possible to mess up. Not intending to disparage you personally. Just commenting on the contents.

 

[rjs330]

You link is glitching for some reason.
But I would think the FBI is the authority on what their analysis says. I reposted the numbers from that report below:

You provided the first link. If you didn't read it carefully, and missed the bottom line:

From the report you cited...
Violent crime consists of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and
aggravated assault. Nationwide, from 2022 to 2023, the estimated volume of violent
crime offenses showed the following changes:
Violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent.
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter decreased an estimated 11.6 percent.
Rape decreased an estimated 9.4 percent.
Robbery decreased an estimated 0.3 percent.
Aggravated assault decreased an estimated 2.8 percent.
An estimated 1,218,467 violent crime offenses were committed in 2023, indicating a
rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, down from the 2022 offense rate of
377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.
(page 3)

It's not the first time one of us did that. It's happened to me. Not lately. Because it is hugely embarrassing, and it has made me more careful about that kind of thing. Still, it's always possible to mess up. Not intending to disparage you personally. Just commenting on the contents.

Sorry the numbers were adjusted to show a 4% increase. The 3% decrease was wrong. As shown in the article. You were deceived again.

 

[The Barbarian]

Sorry the numbers were adjusted to show a 4% increase. The 3% decrease was wrong. As shown in the article. You were deceived again.

Can you link us to the FBI report showing this? Or is this some other group disagreeing with the FBI data? Your other link leads to another FBI document that also records a decline in violent crime.

What have you got?

 

[rambot]

FYI...here is a direct link to the report: You're not going to get a useful link to prove their point so here's the report itself barbarian.
https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...4/09/UCR_Summary_of_Crime_in_-Nation_2023.pdf

I gotta tell you that I see NO adjustment in data that indicates what is being said in this thread.
It "doubles down" on it's previous report and I see no examples or (in my VERY VERY brief scan) any inclination of what is being suggested in this thread.

That said I'm not interested in preening through 42 pages of this document to find the sentence claimed to be reported if I'm looking at the data itself and it doesn't seem to show the revision I'm reading about in this thread.

BUT I'm not a security expert and I'm MORE than willing to be proven wrong by someone who is jumping all over the topic in this thread and loving the "gotcha moment" you guys may be having.

Perhaps someone can find some examples of data that show the changes mentioned?


There IS more hate crimes year over year though. BOy....I just...I can't imagine why.

 

[The Barbarian]

FYI...here is a direct link to the report: You're not going to get a useful link to prove their point so here's the report itself barbarian.
https://elements.visualcapitalist.c...4/09/UCR_Summary_of_Crime_in_-Nation_2023.pdf

Yes, I have that. But it only documents a decrease in violent crime.

Perhaps someone can find some examples of data that show the changes mentioned?

Might happen. But given the way the discussion has gone so far, I'm not holding my breath.

 

[rjs330]

This what is going on. You have to do a comparison which means a deep dive. The FBI didn't come out and announce that they revised data and there was an increase not a decrease. They did this quietly.

RCI discovered the change through aThe actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed? cryptic reference on the FBI website that states: “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” But there is no mention that the numbers increased. One only sees the change by downloading the FBI’s new crime data and comparing it to the file released last year.

The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how much guesswork is involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead, it offers estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that report only partial-year data. The Bureau also makes estimates for cities that report no data. The FBI’s method of generating these estimates changes over time, and it affects the figures they report.

“The [FBI’s] processes, such as how it tries to ‘estimate’ unreported figures, has long been a black box, even to the Bureau of Justice Statistics – the Department of Justice’s actual statistical agency,” says Jeffrey Anderson, who headed the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021.

Anderson said when he headed the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “We definitely would have highlighted in a press release or a report the 6.6% change recorded for 2022, which moved the numbers from a drop to a rise in violent crime.”

Of course this isn't unusual for rhe government to do. They do a lot of assumptions and extrapolations and guesswork. This happened with the jobs created by 800,000.

US job market gets biggest markdown since 2009 with 818K fewer jobs than previously reported

The downward revision means that the reported job growth during that period — 2.9 million non-farm payroll positions — was around 30% less.

nypost.com

The other issues regarding the FBI report is they only report on eepkrt3d crimes. This has been mentioned before when we all talked about this when Trump mentioned this in the debate.

There is evidence that people are not reporting crime by a large rate including violent crime.

A half-century ago, the DOJ provided a total crime measure, including both reported and unreported crime. The results of the department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey, released in mid-September, tell a very different story from the FBI data.

While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large.

So whole FBI did guesswork and estimations based on incomplete data the Ametican people know better that crime has increased.

 

[The Barbarian]

This what is going on. You have to do a comparison which means a deep dive. The FBI didn't come out and announce that they revised data and there was an increase not a decrease. They did this quietly.

But you can't show us this? If you can't, why do you think it's true?

RCI discovered the change through aThe actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed? cryptic reference on the FBI website that states: “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.”

Here's the information from the site you just linked:
Estimates based on data submitted by the participating agencies show the following
nationwide year-to-year trends:
Violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent from 2022 to 2023.
Property crime decreased an estimated 2.4 percent from 2022 to 2023

and

UCR Summary of Crime in the Nation, 2023 U.S. Department of Justice—Federal Bureau of Investigation
Released September 2024
Violent Crime
Violent crime consists of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and
aggravated assault. Nationwide, from 2022 to 2023, the estimated volume of violent
crime offenses showed the following changes:
Violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent.
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter decreased an estimated 11.6 percent.
Rape decreased an estimated 9.4 percent.
Robbery decreased an estimated 0.3 percent.
Aggravated assault decreased an estimated 2.8 percent.
An estimated 1,218,467 violent crime offenses were committed in 2023, indicating a
rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, down from the 2022 offense rate of
377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.1

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/UCR_Summary_of_Crime_in_-Nation_2023.pdf

You're the victim of the old bait-and-switch. The NCVS has always had higher numbers because there are crimes people don't report to law enforcement, or accusations of crimes that were not actually crimes. NCVS just takes reports from individuals who interpret for themselves whether an incident is a crime.

Other sources pretty much agree with the FBI.

Criminal Victimization data:

https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv22.pdf

Violent crime higher under Trump.

Council on Criminal Justice:

WASHINGTON – Homicide and most other violent crimes have dropped to or slightly below levels seen before the onset of the COVID pandemic and nationwide protests that followed the killing of George Floyd, according to a new analysis of crime trends in 39 cities released today by the Council on Criminal Justice.

Examining patterns for 12 crime types in cities that have consistently published monthly data over the past six years, the study also found that levels of 11 of those offenses were lower in the first six months of this year compared to the first half of 2023. (Shoplifting was the exception.) The number of homicides in the 29 cities providing data for that crime was 13% lower, representing 319 fewer homicides in those cities. Nineteen of the 29 study cities recorded a homicide decrease during the first half of the year, ranging from a drop of 71% in Chandler, AZ, to an 8% decline in Austin. Nine cities experienced increases, ranging from 5% in St. Louis to 26% in Buffalo.

Motor vehicle theft, a crime that had risen sharply since the summer of 2020, reversed course during the first six months of this year, falling 18% below the first half of 2023. Residential burglaries (-14%), nonresidential burglaries (-10%), larcenies (-6%), and drug offenses (-2%) all decreased during the same period.

Homicide, Most Other Violent Crimes Drop to Pre-Pandemic Levels in U.S. Cities

New CCJ analysis of mid-year crime trends also shows year-over-year decreases in motor vehicle theft and carjacking, while shoplifting continues to rise

counciloncj.org

Again, violent crime higher under Trump.

 

[rambot]

This what is going on. You have to do a comparison which means a deep dive. The FBI didn't come out and announce that they revised data and there was an increase not a decrease. They did this quietly.

Well according to the OP and the article they did say the "numbers were adjusted" and that statement was in the 2023 report.

I can't find it in the report itself. And in fact, the entire document continues to indicate a decline (and yet this was the document linked to in the news report.

 

[rjs330]

You're the victim of the old bait-and-switch. The NCVS has always had higher numbers because there are crimes people don't report to law enforcement, or accusations of crimes that were not actually crimes. NCVS just takes reports from individuals who interpret for themselves whether an incident is a crime.

Thats what police do as well. People report a crime if which they consider themselves a victim. It's just that they chose to report it rather than not. The police take reports all the time from people who think they were victims of a crime when they really weren't. Not that they were lying, just mistaken. And as we know people often don't report the crime. Thats one of the biggest issues.

Although recent attention has focused on the decline in murder rates, even with the revised numbers, the 16.2% drop from 2020 to 2023 still leaves murder rates 9.6% higher than pre-COVID levels.

Nonreporting of crime doesn’t affect all crimes equally. Nonreporting of murder and motor vehicle theft is relatively rare. In murder cases, victims can’t be overlooked, and for auto theft, insurance claims require police reports. However, it’s difficult to fully trust even these numbers because the FBI underreported 1,699 murders and 54,216 motor vehicle thefts in 2022, casting doubt on the reliability of the data.

 

[The Barbarian]

Although recent attention has focused on the decline in murder rates, even with the revised numbers, the 16.2% drop from 2020 to 2023 still leaves murder rates 9.6% higher than pre-COVID levels.

The higher murder rate under Trump is, as you suggest, a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. You can blame him for bungling the pandemic response, but not directly for causing more murders. During the pandemic, there was a worldwide increase in violent crime, most notably domestic violence. And in most nations, it is now declining. The U.S. is typical.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/15248380211038690