- Apr 14, 2003
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The media assumes that candidates nominated for President by the Democratic Party have a good chance of being elected. I’m not so sure. My reading of American Presidential elections is that a decisive majority of voters almost always vote Republican. The only time a Democrat is elected is when a Republican Administration really, really, really screws up. ( … and sometimes not even then. ) This has been true since 1968.
I say this without prejudice. In my view, every Republican Administration since 1960 has been a disaster. One factor disguising Republican Presidential dominance is that the Democrats seemed to have unchallenged control of the House of Representatives, at least until 1994.
In 1968, Richard Nixon flopped into office with 42% of the popular vote. His opponent, Democrat Hubert Humphrey, also received about 42% of the vote. George Wallace and the American Independent Party received about 17% of the vote. An overwhelming percentage of the voters voted for a candidate that was conservative or reactionary. Despite many controversies, Richard Nixon was re-elected in 1972. The press told us that it was a landslide.
The dark underbelly of the Nixon Administration came to the surface in Nixon’s second term. Vice President Agnew was forced to resign in 1973, and Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment in 1974. Gerald Ford, who had been the ranking Republican in Congress, became the first un-elected President. The last American forces in Vietnam made an extremely awkward exit when South Vietnam fell in May of 1975. Against this background, Democrat Jimmy Carter was elected President in 1976.
Although incumbents are re-elected more often than not, Jimmy Carter was unpopular and Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980. If you remember the 1980 election, several candidates held a debate in Des Moines, but Reagan boycotted the debate. Then he went on to make gaffe and gaffe on the campaign trail. He was elected anyway.
Ronald Reagan had promised to balance the budget but Congress did not accept all of the enormous spending cuts he asked for. Instead of balancing the budget, the Reagan Administration piled up the largest deficits in history, at that time. In 1984, Reagan was effortlessly re-elected. In 1988, Reagan’s Vice-President, George H.W. Bush, likewise coasted to victory.
In the early years of the Reagan Administration the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, was virtually dismantled. It was shut down by its Administrator, Ann Gorsuch, later Ann Gorsuch Burford, who did go to prison briefly. She has never apologized for her crimes. Through much of the Reagan Administration, Secretary of the Interior James Watt was known for incredible attacks on the environment. None of this hindered twelve years of Republican dominance.
In 1992, Ross Perot and the Reform Party split the conservative vote and Bill Clinton became President. In 1996, Ross Perot/Reform made a weaker showing but still split the conservative vote and Bill Clinton was elected again.
In 2000 is a peculiar case. We still don’t know for sure who would have won if voted had been counted in the usual way. The Supreme Court decreed that George W. Bush would be President. In 2004, Bush won the election. Following the September 11 attacks, the Bush Administration invaded Afghanistan, which was justified. The Bush Administration also invaded Iraq. Vice President Cheney and other Bush advisers had wanted to invade Iraq all along. The people accepted it because they thought the invasion had something to do with the September 11 attacks. By 2008, it had become clear that the Bush Administration had started two wars, one for dubious reasons, and botched both of them.
Against this background, Democrat Barack Obama was elected President in 2008 and again in 2012. Obama may have been re-elected through the power of the incumbency or simply because the Afghan War and Iraq War were still going on. It was impossible to forget either one of them.
In 2016, Donald Trump, running as a Republican, was elected President. Trump is the most undiplomatic, most abrasive, person ever to run for President, let alone win. Trump had never held elective office before, or run for office before. Apparently voters were mesmerized by his image as a billionaire, a financial wizard. They knew little about his past.
Running against an abrasive Republican President who knew little of the norms of government, and nothing about foreign policy, Joe Biden was elected President in 2020.
Overall, it looks like the only time a Democrat gets elected President is after a Republican President is forced to resign, the Republicans enter a disastrous war, or if a third party splits the conservative vote. My advice to the Democrats is that there is something seriously wrong with their strategy. Most Americans do not like their foreign policy or their domestic policy, so the Democrats need to rethink on both fronts.
I say this without prejudice. In my view, every Republican Administration since 1960 has been a disaster. One factor disguising Republican Presidential dominance is that the Democrats seemed to have unchallenged control of the House of Representatives, at least until 1994.
In 1968, Richard Nixon flopped into office with 42% of the popular vote. His opponent, Democrat Hubert Humphrey, also received about 42% of the vote. George Wallace and the American Independent Party received about 17% of the vote. An overwhelming percentage of the voters voted for a candidate that was conservative or reactionary. Despite many controversies, Richard Nixon was re-elected in 1972. The press told us that it was a landslide.
The dark underbelly of the Nixon Administration came to the surface in Nixon’s second term. Vice President Agnew was forced to resign in 1973, and Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment in 1974. Gerald Ford, who had been the ranking Republican in Congress, became the first un-elected President. The last American forces in Vietnam made an extremely awkward exit when South Vietnam fell in May of 1975. Against this background, Democrat Jimmy Carter was elected President in 1976.
Although incumbents are re-elected more often than not, Jimmy Carter was unpopular and Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980. If you remember the 1980 election, several candidates held a debate in Des Moines, but Reagan boycotted the debate. Then he went on to make gaffe and gaffe on the campaign trail. He was elected anyway.
Ronald Reagan had promised to balance the budget but Congress did not accept all of the enormous spending cuts he asked for. Instead of balancing the budget, the Reagan Administration piled up the largest deficits in history, at that time. In 1984, Reagan was effortlessly re-elected. In 1988, Reagan’s Vice-President, George H.W. Bush, likewise coasted to victory.
In the early years of the Reagan Administration the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, was virtually dismantled. It was shut down by its Administrator, Ann Gorsuch, later Ann Gorsuch Burford, who did go to prison briefly. She has never apologized for her crimes. Through much of the Reagan Administration, Secretary of the Interior James Watt was known for incredible attacks on the environment. None of this hindered twelve years of Republican dominance.
In 1992, Ross Perot and the Reform Party split the conservative vote and Bill Clinton became President. In 1996, Ross Perot/Reform made a weaker showing but still split the conservative vote and Bill Clinton was elected again.
In 2000 is a peculiar case. We still don’t know for sure who would have won if voted had been counted in the usual way. The Supreme Court decreed that George W. Bush would be President. In 2004, Bush won the election. Following the September 11 attacks, the Bush Administration invaded Afghanistan, which was justified. The Bush Administration also invaded Iraq. Vice President Cheney and other Bush advisers had wanted to invade Iraq all along. The people accepted it because they thought the invasion had something to do with the September 11 attacks. By 2008, it had become clear that the Bush Administration had started two wars, one for dubious reasons, and botched both of them.
Against this background, Democrat Barack Obama was elected President in 2008 and again in 2012. Obama may have been re-elected through the power of the incumbency or simply because the Afghan War and Iraq War were still going on. It was impossible to forget either one of them.
In 2016, Donald Trump, running as a Republican, was elected President. Trump is the most undiplomatic, most abrasive, person ever to run for President, let alone win. Trump had never held elective office before, or run for office before. Apparently voters were mesmerized by his image as a billionaire, a financial wizard. They knew little about his past.
Running against an abrasive Republican President who knew little of the norms of government, and nothing about foreign policy, Joe Biden was elected President in 2020.
Overall, it looks like the only time a Democrat gets elected President is after a Republican President is forced to resign, the Republicans enter a disastrous war, or if a third party splits the conservative vote. My advice to the Democrats is that there is something seriously wrong with their strategy. Most Americans do not like their foreign policy or their domestic policy, so the Democrats need to rethink on both fronts.
