Presidential Election Polls

[Ruminator2]

I hear that Hitler's Christian Nationalism was also very popular:

https://www.ieg-ego.eu/en/mediainfo/adolf-hitlers-speech-in-the-berlin-lustgarten-1932

Famous Christian martyr explains:

"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers" - Carlin?

 

[essentialsaltes]

Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May​

32% give the economy positive marks, a record-high during Biden’s presidency​

President Biden is the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump for the first time since October, as positive views of the economy inch up — hitting their highest level thus far in the Biden presidency, according to a new Fox News national survey.

Since May, there was a 3-point change in the presidential race. Trump was ahead by 1 point last month, while Biden is up by 2 points today: 50%-48%. That’s well within the margin of error.

Trump does well among men (+15), rural voters (+17), White men without a degree (+30) and White evangelical Christians (+46). Biden matches that with strong support among voters ages 65 and over (+15), women (+17), urban voters (+23) and White women with a college degree (+28).

The key [to the shift] is that Independents favor Biden by 9 points, a shift from May when they preferred Trump by 2 points. While equal numbers of Independents say leadership (59%) and integrity (58%) are extremely important to their vote decision, they are more likely to say Biden has integrity by 23 points compared to Trump being a strong leader by only 11.

Similar Biden lead when 3rd party candidates are added:

 

[essentialsaltes]

Taking it pretty well.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Not just Fox News, but the NY Post, and The Economist

 

[XianGoth1334]

When I see a poll that close which favors Biden, it makes me think that he (Biden) will indeed win the popular vote. However, Trump can still win the electoral vote with that kind of narrow difference. Personally, I expect an out come similar to 2016, though one which is much closer on both counts... in other words, I think Biden's popular vote win will be very narrow (and likely due to illegal immigrant voting in places like Southern California) and I also think Trump will just barely clear the EV in the range of 270-273. However it does turn out, it is going to be very close and I am already anxious as to how "the losing side" will respond.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

32% give the economy positive marks, a record-high during Biden’s presidency

Wow! The bar for Biden is set so incredibly low!

 

[essentialsaltes]

I crave your Optimistic emojis.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Not that the 538 model is the be-all end-all of combining polling data into a prediction, but for a month or more before the debate, the model had them fairly deadlocked and unmoving in a tossup for the Electoral College. Then came the debate at the end of June.

 

[mark46]

Not that the 538 model is the be-all end-all of combining polling data into a prediction, but for a month or more before the debate, the model had them fairly deadlocked and unmoving in a tossup for the Electoral College. Then came the debate at the end of June.


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It is what is. Trump is now the heavy favorite. Now the Republicans are hoping to win states like NM, MN and NH.

Did we all notice the interview. Biden couldn't even remember if he had watched the debate, a truly horrible situation. This shows a poor memory AND poor judgement.

 

[mark46]

Not that the 538 model is the be-all end-all of combining polling data into a prediction, but for a month or more before the debate, the model had them fairly deadlocked and unmoving in a tossup for the Electoral College. Then came the debate at the end of June.


View attachment 351202

Ok, I use 270towin.

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Consider that if Biden wins in PA, MI and WI he is very likely to win the presidency. Biden sees this and INSISTS on continuing.
He needs to look carefully at the polls in PA, MI and WI. He also needs to look at forecasts for the House.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Not that the 538 model is the be-all end-all of combining polling data into a prediction, but for a month or more before the debate, the model had them fairly deadlocked and unmoving in a tossup for the Electoral College. Then came the debate at the end of June.


View attachment 351202

Note that Nate Silver is no longer at 538 and he took his model with him. The current 538 model is entirely new.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Note that Nate Silver is no longer at 538 and he took his model with him. The current 538 model is entirely new.

Thanks, I knew Silver left, but didn't realize he took the horse he rode in on. FWIW (which is not much given today's news) Nate's forecast shows (2pm Sunday) a similar pattern after the first debate. Silver had Trump more clearly leading most of the way, but diverging further after the debate.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Thanks, I knew Silver left, but didn't realize he took the horse he rode in on. FWIW (which is not much given today's news) Nate's forecast shows (2pm Sunday) a similar pattern after the first debate. Silver had Trump more clearly leading most of the way, but diverging further after the debate.

View attachment 352026

Not only did he take the horse he rode in on, but apparently there's also some amount of low grade beef between him and the new guy.

Why I don't buy 538's new election model

It barely pays attention to the polls. And its results just don't make a lot of sense.

www.natesilver.net

^this is less beef and more teardown of the new model. I would dig up the beefing if it were interesting, but it's not.

 

[Ace777]

I hear that Hitler's Christian Nationalism was also very popular:

There was a BIG wave of repentance after the war of the people who supported him. Actually there are still people today that support the Nazi or at least collect items with the Nazi insignia on it. It is banned on Ebay. Also eugenics is more widely accepted than people want to admit. For example:

Misconceptions about people with Down syndrome lead to a disproportionate number of diagnosed children being aborted. It is estimated that 60 percent to 90 percent of children diagnosed with Down syndrome are aborted in the U.S., compared to 18 percent of all pregnancies ending in abortion.

So what came first the chicken or the egg. Did Hitler effect eugenics or did eugenics effect Hitler?

 

[mark46]

There was a BIG wave of repentance after the war of the people who supported him. Actually there are still people today that support the Nazi or at least collect items with the Nazi insignia on it. It is banned on Ebay. Also eugenics is more widely accepted than people want to admit. For example:

Misconceptions about people with Down syndrome lead to a disproportionate number of diagnosed children being aborted. It is estimated that 60 percent to 90 percent of children diagnosed with Down syndrome are aborted in the U.S., compared to 18 percent of all pregnancies ending in abortion.

So what came first the chicken or the egg. Did Hitler effect eugenics or did eugenics effect Hitler?

Eugenics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Ace777]

Eugenics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Looks like this goes back long before Hitler. Only the Nazi took it to the extream.

 

[mark46]

Looks like this goes back long before Hitler. Only the Nazi took it to the extream.

In Sparta, they examined the newborns. The weak ones were killed.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Nate Silver has turned his model back on: Indeed, there was a lot of polling that came in since our initial model run yesterday, and a lot of it was pretty good for Kamala Harris. Her chances of winning the Electoral College have risen to 43 percent

The poll momentum is good, but is this just a honeymoon phase or the real deal?

 

[mark46]

Nate Silver has turned his model back on: Indeed, there was a lot of polling that came in since our initial model run yesterday, and a lot of it was pretty good for Kamala Harris. Her chances of winning the Electoral College have risen to 43 percent

The poll momentum is good, but is this just a honeymoon phase or the real deal?

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The Dems need to increase a bit in PA and they will win. PA, MI, VA and one of WI, NC and AZ is enough and they are now leading in WI.

 

[FreeinChrist]

Realclearpolitics

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

The momentum has changed. imho