President Trump - hopes and risks

[mindlight]

It looks like Trump has pulled off a remarkable comeback despite being a convicted felon. God preserved his life when others wanted to assassinate him and gave the American people a choice about their future and they have chosen his way forward.

Their reasons appear to be inflation and immigration.

Hopes:
1) With Musk in the cabinet can we expect a man on Mars in the next 4 years - at the very least there will be some kind of extra commitment to space travel from the president who founded the Space Force.
2) The idea of a federal abortion bill is dead and the idea of a state-by-state solution to the divisions on this issue now has time to be cemented
3) Maybe Musk can deliver efficiencies and purge some woke stupidities from the Federal bureaucracy and institutions.
4) Can the change in leadership and Trump's unpredictable and slightly scary character bring about peace in Ukraine & Gaza?
5) Maybe Britain has a chance of a trade agreement now.

Risks:
1) Will he break America's alliances and thereby sabotage the security and stability of the current world order - or will he reverse his isolationist rhetoric now that he is in power and faced with the realities of global geopolitical actors and scheming?
2) What will he do with Ukraine and Taiwan? - neither one should be lost to the West.
3) Will he pursue revenge vendettas against his enemies of the last few years or will he bring healing to a divided America?
4) Rich men in the cabinet and power positions present a range of corruption and conflict of interest scenarios. Their temptation is to use power to enrich themselves but that should not be possible in a working democracy.
5) Tax cuts will simply exaggerate the issues with the deficit and bankrupt the nation turning the dollar into a debased currency.

Will Trump adapt to deal with the genuine fears about his victory that exist around the world or are we all doomed?

 

[mindlight]

The Guardian wrote a good article on the hopes and fears surrounding Trump's comeback. It views America's choice as an expression of democratic (not the party) decline,

Fear triumphs over hope as Trump wins the presidency – how did it happen?

To elect Donald Trump once may be regarded as a misfortune; to elect him twice looks like craziness

www.theguardian.com

Nature magazine sees it as a threat to genuine scientific research the world over. Though some of their reasoning has to do with atheistic contempt for Christian principles.

‘We need to be ready for a new world’: scientists globally react to Trump election win

Trump’s decisive defeat of Kamala Harris spurs fears about the future of the United States among researchers.

www.nature.com

Europe is preparing for a trade war, hopes for peace in Ukraine, worries that Trump will wreck NATO and other global institutions, and despairs about his environmental policy. Less worryingly Trump is a challenge to European wokism.

Trump’s in. Here’s what it means for Europe.

From energy and trade to finance and defense, here’s how Donald Trump’s second presidency will impact EU policy.

www.politico.eu

 

[mindlight]

Trump is saying he wants to annex Greenland, control the Panama Canal, break up the EU to make individual trade deals with European nations and make Canada a mineral resource for the USA. He appears to be ignoring China's plans for Europe and Taiwan.

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

Trump is saying he wants to annex Greenland, control the Panama Canal, break up the EU to make individual trade deals with European nations and make Canada a mineral resource for the USA. He appears to be ignoring China's plans for Europe and Taiwan.

If any of these scenarios occur, then China will be a lesser concern for the United States.

Americans sometimes see Europe as a paper tiger, but they should remember that Europe was once a superpower and could be again.

If the United States were to break up the European Union, purchase Greenland, or annex Greenland, it would likely be perceived as a provocation. Such actions will result in the dissolution of NATO.

Europe may take 20 years to rebuild their military and economy without the U.S., but they will eventually succeed, and they will succeed more spectacular way then China. Canada would prefer to be an equal partner with Europe rather than aligning with the U.S. for its resources.

Only those who lack an understanding of geopolitics or world history would support such a scenario.

 

[mindlight]

If any of these scenarios occur, then China will be a lesser concern for the United States.

Americans sometimes see Europe as a paper tiger, but they should remember that Europe was once a superpower and could be again.

If the United States were to break up the European Union, purchase Greenland, or annex Greenland, it would likely be perceived as a provocation. Such actions will result in the dissolution of NATO.

Europe may take 20 years to rebuild their military and economy without the U.S., but they will eventually succeed, and they will succeed more spectacular way then China. Canada would prefer to be an equal partner with Europe rather than aligning with the U.S. for its resources.

Only those who lack an understanding of geopolitics or world history would support such a scenario.

Europe has its natural weight and is similar to the USA in that respect when considered over the longer term. With Europe, the USA has the economic weight to deal with a Chinese economy already larger than it in PPP terms. Breaking the alliance for temporary trade deals is a self-defeating policy in the long run especially if it drives Europe into the hands of the Chinese.

The Greenland and Canada talk is only going to turn the backs of allies up.

 

[Lukaris]

If Trump can free the US from endless hassles with Europe, it would be for our mutual benefit.

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

If Trump can free the US from endless hassles with Europe, it would be for our mutual benefit.

Do you mean that making Europe an adversary instead of an ally will benefit the USA?

The United States is currently a superpower partly because of its alliance with Europe and NATO. Without this alliance, the USA might not have the same level of dominance it enjoys today.

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

Europe has its natural weight and is similar to the USA in that respect when considered over the longer term. With Europe, the USA has the economic weight to deal with a Chinese economy already larger than it in PPP terms. Breaking the alliance for temporary trade deals is a self-defeating policy in the long run especially if it drives Europe into the hands of the Chinese.

The Greenland and Canada talk is only going to turn the backs of allies up.

I do not believe Europe will form an alliance with China or Russia similar to its alliance with the USA. Europeans will not tolerate such partnerships with Chinese or Russian authoritarian regimes. Instead, I foresee a closer European alliance with Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—in other words, a NATO-Plus alliance without the USA.

Unfortunately, my fellow countrymen don't see a problem with this. They believe the USA is carrying all of Europe's burden so you can have free healthcare.

 

[Yarddog]

It looks like Trump has pulled off a remarkable comeback despite being a convicted felon. God preserved his life when others wanted to assassinate him and gave the American people a choice about their future and they have chosen his way forward.

Let's remember, about as many Americans voted for someone other than Trump, as voted for him.

Hopes:
1) With Musk in the cabinet can we expect a man on Mars in the next 4 years - at the very least there will be some kind of extra commitment to space travel from the president who founded the Space Force.

Won't happen and a dumb idea to try.

2) The idea of a federal abortion bill is dead and the idea of a state-by-state solution to the divisions on this issue now has time to be cemented

Yes.

3) Maybe Musk can deliver efficiencies and purge some woke stupidities from the Federal bureaucracy and institutions.

Republicans can't even agree on what woke means. They add whatever they disagree with to the list. Jesus is woke by the original meaning.

4) Can the change in leadership and Trump's unpredictable and slightly scary character bring about peace in Ukraine & Gaza?

No

5) Maybe Britain has a chance of a trade agreement now.

???

Risks:
1) Will he break America's alliances and thereby sabotage the security and stability of the current world order - or will he reverse his isolationist rhetoric now that he is in power and faced with the realities of global geopolitical actors and scheming?

1. Probably 2. He never likes to admit that he's wrong, so if he does he'll blame someone else.

2) What will he do with Ukraine and Taiwan? - neither one should be lost to the West.

He plays footies with Putin and Xi, so up in the air.

3) Will he pursue revenge vendettas against his enemies of the last few years or will he bring healing to a divided America?

He continue, as he has for over ten years. Divide, divide, divide.

4) Rich men in the cabinet and power positions present a range of corruption and conflict of interest scenarios. Their temptation is to use power to enrich themselves but that should not be possible in a working democracy.

Watch and see .

5) Tax cuts will simply exaggerate the issues with the deficit and bankrupt the nation turning the dollar into a debased currency.

Likely.

Will Trump adapt to deal with the genuine fears about his victory that exist around the world or are we all doomed?

Trump doesn't adapt.

 

[Lukaris]

Do you mean that making Europe an adversary instead of an ally will benefit the USA?

The United States is currently a superpower partly because of its alliance with Europe and NATO. Without this alliance, the USA might not have the same level of dominance it enjoys today.

America needs to help bring about an end to the Ukraine war with Ukraine in a strong and sovereign state. After that, we should wave goodbye to Europe. It is better for America to be isolationist, nationalist and strong; we could probably spend more on humanitarian aid instead.

 

[Gene2memE]

America needs to help bring about an end to the Ukraine war with Ukraine in a strong and sovereign state. After that, we should wave goodbye to Europe.

Why?

There was $1.7 trillion in trade (goods and services) between the US and the EU in 2023 - that's 19% of the US' total trade and about 17% of the EU's total trade. It's the largest trade relationship in history.

In the current economic and political climate, its also a LOT easier for the EU to refocus its trade than it is for the US.

It is better for America to be isolationist, nationalist and strong; we could probably spend more on humanitarian aid instead.

By bankrupting your country? If you end trade with the EU and isolate the country, US economic activity PLUMMETS. The US becomes isolated, insular and weak. This is Middle Kingdom circa 1793 style thinking**.

The estimated impact of a 10% increase in existing tariffs on EU trade alone is that US economic activity slows by about 0.2-0.3 percentage points of GDP. Doesn't sound that bad, but it would likely put about 400,000 to 600,000 people out of a job in the US alone.

The current Trump tariff proposals for Europe and full EU retaliatory tariffs would see US economic activity slow by anywhere from 0.4 to as much as 0.7 points of GDP. If he goes completely silly and does the 10% universal/60% on China, the results are even more devastating - most estimates have the US economy shrinking by at least 1% and some put this as high as a 3.8% drop.

You'd be speed running the 2006-2008 financial crisis AND the opening protectionist phases of the great depression. Even in mild scenarios, unemployment grows by somewhere between 6 million and 9 million and the US economy takes a bigger hit than COVID-19 caused.


** The Chinese emperor's response to the UK requesting revised trade terms in 1793 was this: "‘Our dynasty’s majestic virtue has penetrated unto every country under Heaven, and Kings of all nations have offered their costly tribute by land and sea. As your Ambassador can see for himself, we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and have no use for your country’s manufactures.’

 

[mindlight]

I do not believe Europe will form an alliance with China or Russia similar to its alliance with the USA. Europeans will not tolerate such partnerships with Chinese or Russian authoritarian regimes. Instead, I foresee a closer European alliance with Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—in other words, a NATO-Plus alliance without the USA.

Unfortunately, my fellow countrymen don't see a problem with this. They believe the USA is carrying all of Europe's burden so you can have free healthcare.

It would not be a soulful friendship with either of Americas rivals. It would be a more independent Europe making trade deals on its own terms with whoever it wants and acting as a competitor against the USA. Most Americans appear very naive about the costs of this. These would be economic with the Euro becoming a more acceptable global reserve currency and with the Chinese and Russians gaining greater shares of European markets. Americas supply chains are global and so isolationism is impossible. So also the loss of Europe and the Commonwealth would weaken the USAs bargaining position in trade deals.

Most medical innovation occurs outside the USA. But American companies have exploited many of these discoveries. Europe's defence budget is not insignificant and includes two nuclear powers. The main problem with American health is that it costs twice as much to produce lower outcomes.

 

[mindlight]

Why?

There was $1.7 trillion in trade (goods and services) between the US and the EU in 2023 - that's 19% of the US' total trade and about 17% of the EU's total trade. It's the largest trade relationship in history.

In the current economic and political climate, its also a LOT easier for the EU to refocus its trade than it is for the US.



By bankrupting your country? If you end trade with the EU and isolate the country, US economic activity PLUMMETS. The US becomes isolated, insular and weak. This is Middle Kingdom circa 1793 style thinking**.

The estimated impact of a 10% increase in existing tariffs on EU trade alone is that US economic activity slows by about 0.2-0.3 percentage points of GDP. Doesn't sound that bad, but it would likely put about 400,000 to 600,000 people out of a job in the US alone.

The current Trump tariff proposals for Europe and full EU retaliatory tariffs would see US economic activity slow by anywhere from 0.4 to as much as 0.7 points of GDP. If he goes completely silly and does the 10% universal/60% on China, the results are even more devastating - most estimates have the US economy shrinking by at least 1% and some put this as high as a 3.8% drop.

You'd be speed running the 2006-2008 financial crisis AND the opening protectionist phases of the great depression. Even in mild scenarios, unemployment grows by somewhere between 6 million and 9 million and the US economy takes a bigger hit than COVID-19 caused.


** The Chinese emperor's response to the UK requesting revised trade terms in 1793 was this: "‘Our dynasty’s majestic virtue has penetrated unto every country under Heaven, and Kings of all nations have offered their costly tribute by land and sea. As your Ambassador can see for himself, we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and have no use for your country’s manufactures.’

Cool comparison to Qing dynasty China and the disastrous, naive and arrogant isolationist choices it made just as the European powers came knocking. Though I hope American democracy can deliver a more flexible response before it goes that far.

 

[Lukaris]

Why?

There was $1.7 trillion in trade (goods and services) between the US and the EU in 2023 - that's 19% of the US' total trade and about 17% of the EU's total trade. It's the largest trade relationship in history.

In the current economic and political climate, its also a LOT easier for the EU to refocus its trade than it is for the US.



By bankrupting your country? If you end trade with the EU and isolate the country, US economic activity PLUMMETS. The US becomes isolated, insular and weak. This is Middle Kingdom circa 1793 style thinking**.

The estimated impact of a 10% increase in existing tariffs on EU trade alone is that US economic activity slows by about 0.2-0.3 percentage points of GDP. Doesn't sound that bad, but it would likely put about 400,000 to 600,000 people out of a job in the US alone.

The current Trump tariff proposals for Europe and full EU retaliatory tariffs would see US economic activity slow by anywhere from 0.4 to as much as 0.7 points of GDP. If he goes completely silly and does the 10% universal/60% on China, the results are even more devastating - most estimates have the US economy shrinking by at least 1% and some put this as high as a 3.8% drop.

You'd be speed running the 2006-2008 financial crisis AND the opening protectionist phases of the great depression. Even in mild scenarios, unemployment grows by somewhere between 6 million and 9 million and the US economy takes a bigger hit than COVID-19 caused.


** The Chinese emperor's response to the UK requesting revised trade terms in 1793 was this: "‘Our dynasty’s majestic virtue has penetrated unto every country under Heaven, and Kings of all nations have offered their costly tribute by land and sea. As your Ambassador can see for himself, we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and have no use for your country’s manufactures.’

I believe the US should get out of NATO and other military connections with Europe not discontinue economic trade.

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

America needs to help bring about an end to the Ukraine war with Ukraine in a strong and sovereign state. After that, we should wave goodbye to Europe. It is better for America to be isolationist, nationalist and strong; we could probably spend more on humanitarian aid instead.

If the USA were to part ways with Europe and leave NATO, Europe will respond. Two Western European countries already have nuclear capabilities, and if the opportunity arises, Germany and a few other countries could develop nuclear capabilities relatively quickly.

Do you think it would be good for America if another nuclear power with significant wealth became its adversary?

Do you believe that American isolationism would be beneficial? Currently, 40% of US goods are exported to NATO allies. If NATO were to stop purchasing American products and instead begin buying Chinese or Indian products, what impact do you think this would have on American companies?

In 2022-2023, the United States imported nearly $30 billion worth of food from Canada, France, and Italy. Considering the significant reliance on imports from NATO countries, what alternatives would America have for its food supply if these imports were unavailable?

Isolationism and nationalism made sense in 1750 when crossing the Atlantic took six weeks. Today it takes six hours. Back then, a European army needed six months to reach US soil; now an ICBM can strike the US within 45 minutes.

 

[Lukaris]

If the USA were to part ways with Europe and leave NATO, Europe will respond. Two Western European countries already have nuclear capabilities, and if the opportunity arises, Germany and a few other countries could develop nuclear capabilities relatively quickly.

Do you think it would be good for America if another nuclear power with significant wealth became its adversary?

Do you believe that American isolationism would be beneficial? Currently, 40% of US goods are exported to NATO allies. If NATO were to stop purchasing American products and instead begin buying Chinese or Indian products, what impact do you think this would have on American companies?

In 2022-2023, the United States imported nearly $30 billion worth of food from Canada, France, and Italy. Considering the significant reliance on imports from NATO countries, what alternatives would America have for its food supply if these imports were unavailable?

Isolationism and nationalism made sense in 1750 when crossing the Atlantic took six weeks. Today it takes six hours. Back then, a European army needed six months to reach US soil; now an ICBM can strike the US within 45 minutes.

So US trade with Europe is some sort of privelege that the US has to double pay for by being required to be the armed forces of Europe? I stated previously that I believe we should have economic trade with Europe but why does the US have to be their security guards?

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

I believe the US should get out of NATO and other military connections with Europe not discontinue economic trade.

Do you believe that if the United States were to end its 80-year security alliance with Europe, which would impact every European citizen, Europeans would continue purchasing $1.7 trillion worth of products from the US?

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

So US trade with Europe is some sort of privelege that the US has to double pay for by being required to be the armed forces of Europe? I stated previously that I believe we should have economic trade with Europe but why does the US have to be their security guards?

I believe the US should continue trade with Europe, but it will be Europe's decision whether they want to trade with the US or not.

If the United States withdraws from NATO, it may quickly discover a shift in European diplomatic relations. This outcome is likely to be unfavorable for the United States.

 

[Lukaris]

I believe the US should continue trade with Europe, but it will be Europe's decision whether they want to trade with the US or not.

If the United States withdraws from NATO, it may quickly discover a shift in European diplomatic relations. This outcome is likely to be unfavorable for the United States.

So America must have a perpetual Cold War apparatus and be shaken down to provide for someone else’s security. We need to pursue new options and find a way out of this stagnant drain on our own interests and well being.

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

So America must have a perpetual Cold War apparatus and be shaken down to provide for someone else’s security. We need to pursue new options and find a way out of this stagnant drain on our own interests and well being.

What are the alternatives to NATO or our current alliance?

What course of action should the United States take after exiting NATO? This move will damage our diplomatic relationships with the European Union and other NATO member countries. It may also signal to other nations, such as Japan or South Korea, that forming enduring alliances with the United States is not feasible due to perceived self-interest on the part of the U.S.