Is Trump breaking the alliance?

[trophy33]

It's what we call a "fire sale", not unlike what happened in Russia in the 90's. When it's all over, the billionaire oligarchs are going to fly out of the US, and to New Zealand, or Mars, or whatever.

I heard that many Americans emigrate to South American countries, recently. And of course to Asia.

Europe, New Zealand, Canada, Australia may be too expensive to move to and lack the exotic feeling.

 

[mindlight]

We did not lose an ally.

lose was too strong a word. To be clear, this would not be a desirable outcome. I remain an Atlanticist, but Trump is provoking trust issues, and the German election result illustrates this perfectly.

Europe needs to step up its game, and I believe that the military component of that is a priority for the new Chancellor and indeed has cross-party support. A rearmed Germany with a lethal force able to defend the weaker countries of Europe and working with France and the UK could well be more powerful than Russia.

Trump is not exactly wooing Germany is he?

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

A rearmed Germany with a lethal force able to defend the weaker countries of Europe and working with France and the UK could well be more powerful than Russia.

Do you really want to find out?

 

[Nithavela]

View attachment 361920
Do you really want to find out?

Not depicted: about 150 billion dollars of today's money in US lend lease equipment, as well as the US army attacking from the west.

 

[mindlight]

Not depicted: about 150 billion dollars of today's money in US lend lease equipment, as well as the US army attacking from the west.

Not to mention that Britain, with all the resources of a global empire at its disposal, had secured the Mediterranean, knocked out Hitler's main ally - the Italians and won the air war in the West while securing the Atlantic and running convoys to the Russians in Russia's darkest hours. Germany, against the entire world, failed. But a Germany with the UK, France, and the rest of Europe is a different story altogether.

 

[Nithavela]

Not to mention that Britain, with all the resources of a global empire at its disposal, had secured the Mediterranean, knocked out Hitler's main ally - the Italians and won the air war in the West while securing the Atlantic and running convoys to the Russians in Russia's darkest hours. Germany, against the entire world, failed. But a Germany with the UK, France, and the rest of Europe is a different story altogether.

Comparing today's german army against the Wehrmacht is like comparing apples to oranges.

Especially since, in a few years, there will be autonomous drones and robots in the battle line. Nobody can say how a war in 10 years will be fought, but I suspect that against things like slaughterbots, Russian army tactics will be pretty useless.

In the end, we'll probably kill each other wholesale. I fully expect to die by the hands of a russian in the span of the next decade or two. At least I'm male, so I won't get raped beforehand. I just hope i get to take out a few of them myself before that happens.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

The problem is that the USA is changing course radically almost every election. Trump is not Biden, Obama is not Bush etc. So its difficult to be a long term ally to generic USA, its rather to this or that administration.

Its the consequence of their political system. Here in Europe, changes are more gradual, because of the plurality system.

Also, the population in the USA is divided almost 50:50 into two camps that both radicalized against each other in the last decade or two. And any of them, when they get power, try to revert the politics of the previous one.

Another brilliant reason why NATO cannot, and shouldn't, be dependant on the United States. Ideally, they need to be in a position to defend Europe as if the U.S. didn't exist. But as things are right now, Europe is in no better situation than Canada. I don't think Trump is going to break the alliance, but through some tough love and growing pains, Europe will be stronger and more unified. I am looking forward to a day when Europe can tell the U.S. "we don't need you anymore."

 

[trophy33]

Another brilliant reason why NATO cannot, and shouldn't, be dependant on the United States. Ideally, the need to be in a position to defend Europe as if the U.S. didn't exist. But as things are right now, Europe is in no better situation than Canada. I don't think Trump is going to break the alliance, but through some tough love and growing pains, Europe will be stronger and more unified. I am looking forward to a day when Europe can tell the U.S. "we don't need you anymore."

What would that mean for the US, though? They would get another competitor on the world scene... China, Brasil, India are growing economies with enormous population. Then Russia. And then the EU as strong as the USA and politically independent?

It could also mean that the US dollar might not continue to be the world's reserve currency, if the US will lose its hegemony. What impact it would have on its debt-based economy, I do not know. But not a good one, I guess.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

What would that mean for the US, though? They would get another competitor on the world scene... China, Brasil, India are growing economies with enormous population. Then Russia. And then the EU as strong as the USA and politically independent?

You misunderstood me. The United States is unlikely to remove themselves from NATO, even with Trump. I expect that in the end, Europe will be better and more capable partners with the United States and will actually have "cards on the table." In my opinion, the only foreseeable way that Europe would become another competitor on "the world stage" is they became unified under a single leadership. I if WWIII broke out in Europe today, and U.S. didn't take the lead, NATO would waste months trying to argue with each other about who was going to do what. But if all the countries abandoned their military sovereignty and were unified under NATO military leadership, it may be a different situation.

 

[mindlight]

Comparing today's german army against the Wehrmacht is like comparing apples to oranges.

Especially since, in a few years, there will be autonomous drones and robots in the battle line. Nobody can say how a war in 10 years will be fought, but I suspect that against things like slaughterbots, Russian army tactics will be pretty useless.

In the end, we'll probably kill each other wholesale. I fully expect to die by the hands of a russian in the span of the next decade or two. At least I'm male, so I won't get raped beforehand. I just hope i get to take out a few of them myself before that happens.

I do not believe the Russians will reach Germany. They had enough trouble running military convoys into North Ukraine. Europe is investing in drone tech see the Airbus Barracuda or the British Taranis and these are probably better than Russian alternatives and indeed globally competitive. Regarding swarms of suicide drones or so-called slaughter bots. They can be countered by HPM weaponry and by cyber warfare at source also. Europe has more geographical depth than Ukraine to position its defenses if probably coordinated and it has the technological base to create winning armaments. For me this about the development of an independent European military industrial complex large, with enough built in redundancy to fight a war if necessary and efficient and scary enough to deter aggressors. We can also make money out of military stuff. However the only way you really make money out of military stuff is if you are tough enough and scary enough to avoid getting into long protracted wars. That is a matter of political will as much as of having the right stuff and training. People need to know that you only have to hit them once to wipe them out, that you will do it if provoked and then they know not do it. Si vis pacem para bellum.

 

[mindlight]

Another brilliant reason why NATO cannot, and shouldn't, be dependant on the United States. Ideally, they need to be in a position to defend Europe as if the U.S. didn't exist. But as things are right now, Europe is in no better situation than Canada. I don't think Trump is going to break the alliance, but through some tough love and growing pains, Europe will be stronger and more unified. I am looking forward to a day when Europe can tell the U.S. "we don't need you anymore."

Yes Europe will come out the other end of this stronger.

 

[mindlight]

What would that mean for the US, though? They would get another competitor on the world scene... China, Brasil, India are growing economies with enormous population. Then Russia. And then the EU as strong as the USA and politically independent?

It could also mean that the US dollar might not continue to be the world's reserve currency, if the US will lose its hegemony. What impact it would have on its debt-based economy, I do not know. But not a good one, I guess.

That depends on how America works with Europe. An alliance is dominant but apart we live in a multipolar world and America under Trump might not realise it does not have enough to stand alone

 

[mindlight]

You misunderstood me. The United States is unlikely to remove themselves from NATO, even with Trump. I expect that in the end, Europe will be better and more capable partners with the United States and will actually have "cards on the table." In my opinion, the only foreseeable way that Europe would become another competitor on "the world stage" is they became unified under a single leadership. I if WWIII broke out in Europe today, and U.S. didn't take the lead, NATO would waste months trying to argue with each other about who was going to do what. But if all the countries abandoned their military sovereignty and were unified under NATO military leadership, it may be a different situation.

Europe is unlikely to unite in any thing like a Federal republic but if Germany gets its act together and maintains good relations with France and the UK then it will be a natural leader of a European military alliance by virtue of economic weight and its military industrial capabilities and this alliance would dominate the European military region deterring strong predators on Europes borders from preying on the weak.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

Europe is unlikely to unite in any thing like a Federal republic but if Germany gets its act together and maintains good relations with France and the UK then it will be a natural leader of a European military alliance by virtue of economic weight and its military industrial capabilities and this alliance would dominate the European military region deterring strong predators on Europes borders from preying on the weak.

I think it would be interesting who will be in charge of a European army.

 

[mindlight]

I think it would be interesting who will be in charge of a European army.

At the moment NATO gives the hierarchies, in the future if Trump makes the USA irrelevant to Europe, it will be contingent on the force composition of the deployed units and where they are fighting