IF Ai & droids grow exponentially & cause a post-scarcity world - what are YOU going to do all day?

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

I'll worry about it when it becomes an actual problem.

 

[eclipsenow]

I saw that movie. But AI can only "think" the way they have been programed to think.

Ai is not programmed - it's trained. Sometimes we don't know what it is 'learning' in this statistical accumulation of knowledge. (At the base level of computers are binary gates or bytes, at the base level of Ai is 'tokens'. Fundamentally different thing.)

They let one Ai trawl the net for grammar - and it 'taught' itself chemistry to a Phd level! We don't really know what's going on in there - which is why every Ai should have a transparent 'scratch pad' where we can watch its thinking processes.

 

[partinobodycular]

We don't really know what's going on in there - which is why every Ai should have a transparent 'scratch pad' where we can watch its thinking processes.

Ahhh, the thought police.

 

[eclipsenow]

Ahhh, the thought police.

Haha - well if you want to anthropomorphise applied statistics... ?
All good - I see what you did there.

 

[RDKirk]

Ai is not programmed - it's trained. Sometimes we don't know what it is 'learning' in this statistical accumulation of knowledge. (At the base level of computers are binary gates or bytes, at the base level of Ai is 'tokens'. Fundamentally different thing.)

They let one Ai trawl the net for grammar - and it 'taught' itself chemistry to a Phd level! We don't really know what's going on in there - which is why every Ai should have a transparent 'scratch pad' where we can watch its thinking processes.

Or the two AIs conversing with each other that developed their own private grammar.

 

[eclipsenow]

Remember those annoying battle-droids from Phantom Menace? "Roger Roger - yes sir!" (Honestly - )



I used to wonder why they were so stupid - and why a military would have them all controlled from one point up in the mothership rather than autonomous? Was it something to do with saving manufacturing costs per unit?

China has given us the answer. YES! It's one of those cost-per-unit things.

Their Leju robot has 5Ga internet connection so they can outsource more complex Ai processes to a supercomputer on 'the cloud' somewhere.

Or is that way above the cloud? In one of those doughnut shaped Trade Union ships?



Oh no. The Phantom Menace is coming true! Forget the rise of the Emperor - this means Jar Jar BINKS is real!

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Remember those annoying battle-droids from Phantom Menace? "Roger Roger - yes sir!" (Honestly - )



I used to wonder why they were so stupid - and why a military would have them all controlled from one point up in the mothership rather than autonomous? Was it something to do with saving manufacturing costs per unit?

China has given us the answer. YES! It's one of those cost-per-unit things.

Their Leju robot has 5Ga internet connection so they can outsource more complex Ai processes to a supercomputer on 'the cloud' somewhere.

Or is that way above the cloud? In one of those doughnut shaped Trade Union ships?



Oh no. The Phantom Menace is coming true! Forget the rise of the Emperor - this means Jar Jar BINKS is real!

Again: I'll be worried when it happens.

 

[eclipsenow]

Again: I'll be worried when it happens.

Sure - good way to live.
But a little preparation can also be wise. "Consider the Ant..." and all that.

Did you ever see "I Robot"? There was a scene were Will Smith investigated a factory packed with the latest mass produced super-high tech androids.

But in other spots we see the earlier generations - and they're much clunkier.
Well - China's started mass producing these.

They're not prototypes - they're for sale. Now. When I see new industrial processes where the cost could crash down with economies of scale and learning rates, I pay attention. For years I was a fan of nuclear power to solve climate change. I did not realise how much the world was changing around me. Solar panels are STILL getting cheaper - something like 20% every time global capacity doubles. But here's the punchline. Global capacity doubles every 3 years!

Solar could be HALF the cost again by 2030.

So what kind of build out are today's crude robots - compared to the super-sophisticated Androids of "I Robot" above?

It has already produced more than 1,500 humanoid robots even though it has only been operational for less than a year according to AgiBot, the artificial intelligence and robotics startup that runs the factory.​

​

The company plans to open a second factory in Shanghai in 2025, and is aiming for an annual capacity of 10,000 units.​

​

“At scale, our robots will cost under 200,000 yuan (S$36,000) — less expensive than a family car,” said Peng Zhihui, co-founder of AgiBot.

Tech start-up in China eyes cheaper robots, new applications

The factory is the first in Shanghai to mass produce humanoid robots. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

​

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Sure - good way to live.
But a little preparation can also be wise. "Consider the Ant..." and all that.

Did you ever see "I Robot"? There was a scene were Will Smith investigated a factory packed with the latest mass produced super-high tech androids.
View attachment 362436

But in other spots we see the earlier generations - and they're much clunkier.
Well - China's started mass producing these.

They're not prototypes - they're for sale. Now. When I see new industrial processes where the cost could crash down with economies of scale and learning rates, I pay attention. For years I was a fan of nuclear power to solve climate change. I did not realise how much the world was changing around me. Solar panels are STILL getting cheaper - something like 20% every time global capacity doubles. But here's the punchline. Global capacity doubles every 3 years!

Solar could be HALF the cost again by 2030.

So what kind of build out are today's crude robots - compared to the super-sophisticated Androids of "I Robot" above?

It has already produced more than 1,500 humanoid robots even though it has only been operational for less than a year according to AgiBot, the artificial intelligence and robotics startup that runs the factory.​

​

The company plans to open a second factory in Shanghai in 2025, and is aiming for an annual capacity of 10,000 units.​

​

“At scale, our robots will cost under 200,000 yuan (S$36,000) — less expensive than a family car,” said Peng Zhihui, co-founder of AgiBot.​

Tech start-up in China eyes cheaper robots, new applications

The factory is the first in Shanghai to mass produce humanoid robots. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

​

​

And I have seen nothing except bad extrapolations from science fiction, fear-mongering from the press and actual examples of how bad the quality of AI is right now to even be remotely worried about AI in any capacity, let alone Chinese made AI.

It's just fear-mongering.

 

[eclipsenow]

We shall see. The scaling seems to be working - for now. But there could be limits we do not know about. You're right that we do not know it will happen - but there is good reason to think it has a chance.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

We shall see. The scaling seems to be working - for now. But there could be limits we do not know about. You're right that we do not know it will happen - but there is good reason to think it has a chance.

But there isn't a good reason to think it has a chance. That's the problem. Just SAYING it has a chance, does not mean that there is a chance.

 

[eclipsenow]

But there isn't a good reason to think it has a chance. That's the problem. Just SAYING it has a chance, does not mean that there is a chance.

So you know what the theory is from the half of the experts that are optimistic we can make AGI?

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

So you know what the theory is from the half of the experts that are optimistic we can make AGI?

Saying that someone is optimistic just means they think there's a good chance of it happening. That does not mean it's definitely going to happen.

 

[RDKirk]

So you know what the theory is from the half of the experts that are optimistic we can make AGI?

And half of those think it will mean disaster for the human race if it does happen.

 

[eclipsenow]

And half of those think it will mean disaster for the human race if it does happen.

I agree! Sorry - optimists is the wrong word.

One podcast referred to the mere possibility of AGI as having experts on the cutting edge who were 'believers' and 'doubters' as to the possibility of it happening. Not whether it was going to be Terminator or Techno-utopia.

The 'believers' get there because of scaling.
Each time they scale up the server farms in the training run - the results get smarter.

Also - they're adding new features on top of the training run - I don't quite understand any of this as I'm not technical and this is all broken down into my brain as 'stories' - but they're putting self-monitoring analysis on top of the raw statistical output. That is - it generates not one but 1000 outcomes from the statistical guessing game of 'what word comes next' - and then has some other method that evaluates those super-fast. Or not. Sometimes it is doing a whole PHD of analysis and it may take some time.

Anyway - if they scale it up and it gets smarter - and this has happened every time SO FAR - what about super-scaling?

Has everyone watched this?

 

[timewerx]

My only fear is post-scarcity not happening in our country. Not every country in the world have leaders who aren't malevolent like countries in EU, Canada, etc who actually care for people and not see them revenue-generating cattle.

Countries with malevolent leaders will actually see AI as weapon against the masses to control, manipulate, exploit, take advantage of.

 

[eclipsenow]

My only fear is post-scarcity not happening in our country. Not every country in the world have leaders who aren't malevolent like countries in EU, Canada, etc who actually care for people and not see them revenue-generating cattle.

Countries with malevolent leaders will actually see AI as weapon against the masses to control, manipulate, exploit, take advantage of.

Those countries that have super abundant economies would not have a vote for paranoid whiners like Trump. When everyone has everything handed to them by droids - what is there to do? Immigration would bring something some people would crave - especially refugees fleeing some horrible regime. It would give the bored utopians something to do - some exciting mission as they directed droids to build another escape tunnel to somewhere. Or arranged another stealth chopper pickup from that farmer's field in the middle of the night. Then they get to make new friends and have a new story for the pub or club or Hogwarts castle dinner that night. The mind boggles!

IF super scaling works.

Have you read the Culture novels by Ian M Banks? Very highbrow, very philosophical, very well written. Like the Shakespeare of SciFi. Give them a go!

 

[timewerx]

It would give the bored utopians something to do - some exciting mission as they directed droids to build another escape tunnel to somewhere. Or arranged another stealth chopper pickup from that farmer's field in the middle of the night. Then they get to make new friends and have a new story for the pub or club or Hogwarts castle dinner that night. The mind boggles!

Many rich people who make money so easily like they're already living in post-scarcity won't lift a finger to do anything to matter enough to people who needed help. They may donate a bit to charity or sponsor a child or two yet their resources could allow them to rescue thousands from a life of misery but they never do. They do just enough to look good on PR but don't do enough to matter.

When I watched Batman vs Superman (2016) film. Superman's adoptive mother lost her home from foreclosure or w/e. NONE of the thousands of people superman helped to save their lives pitched in to save his mom's house.

It maybe fiction but I think it's an accurate representation of the modern westernized culture. Cold and unloving as the Bible has prophesied.

So I doubt anything like you imagined can actually happen. Governments themselves will make it very difficult to do missions like you imagine. They will make laws to make it illegal and sovereign nations have the legal right to shut down illegal drone activities.

Stealth technology of any kind and sophistication is getting obsolete, thanks to AI and networked radars.

You can still rescue people from horrible regimes but will be through legal means. People living easy and comfortable lives would find it too tedious to bother saving other people from miserable lives.

 

[Jipsah]

Languages. Spoken and written. Korean first (duh!) Then Spanish (lotsa opportunity to use it here.) Danish when I'm staying with the Dansk kinfolk. Japanese. Mandarin Chinese (which gives me written Chinese no extra charge.) Hindi (the better to follow India's National Religion - Cricket) Arabic. Amharic. Russian. French. German. Tagalog. Afrikaans. Dineh (Navajo). Swahili. Cockney rhyming slang.

Ultimately, all of them.

Probably won't be necessary in the Kingdom of God, -sigh-.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Again, I'll be worried about when it happens.

I keep seeing a newspaper at work, the Daily Star keep harping on and on about how AI is going to become Skynet, the Terminator, be a force for evil in the world... and yet, from seeing what AI actually puts out, forgive me if I say that I'm not exactly trembling in my boots about the idea of AI overlords when it creates stuff like this:

And before anyone tries and say "Oh, but that's not AI!". It is AI.