Would Trump defend Australia if we were attacked? We HAD a big purchase deal worked out... but....

[eclipsenow]

Probably UUVs are the future, basically build smart torpedo/mines that sit in station permanently and active when directed and attack shipping.

I hear you - those Ukrainian "Sea babies" certainly are cheap and scared the whole Russian fleet away!
However, this is as long as humans have the final say and assign the target themselves.

If we fit them all out with Ai, I'm less worried about the Terminator, and more concerned we might set up a system that is fragile and causes WW3 by Accident.

 

[stevevw]

The US has a lot of bases in Australia and a vested interest to protest its own people and hardware. From memory they have a military industrial complex in the middle of Australia ate Pin Gap which gathers intel and is also associated with the communications as well which would effect their own capabilities around the world.

 

[Malleeboy]

Pine Gap during the cold war was the relay point for satellite comms on a Soviet first strike.
We have 2,500 marine force in Darwin which comes for 6 months training every year.
Sub base in Perth for US to cover the Indian ocean.
Plans to fly P8 from Christmas Islands.

 

[eclipsenow]

The US has a lot of bases in Australia and a vested interest to protest its own people and hardware. From memory they have a military industrial complex in the middle of Australia ate Pin Gap which gathers intel and is also associated with the communications as well which would effect their own capabilities around the world.

You are correct about Pine Gap being an intel base. But America itself is a "Military Industrial Complex" - including 4 civilian jobs down the supply chain for every $1 million spent on actual military kit with a military contractor or aerospace job. I think you meant Pine gap is a "military interest" or base. I'm assuming in a full scale nuclear war that it gets nuked and all Australian cities get nuked as a result of our being your allies. Our population would go from 25 million down to about 8 million in a few hours. If this happens - it's been nice knowing ya - I live in Sydney.

But friends and family out beyond the mountains would survive - and one day rebuild while America and (catastrophically) ALL the Northern Hemisphere agriculture fails and everyone starves to death in the dark. Nuclear winter lasts 5 to 10 years.

 

[stevevw]

You are correct about Pine Gap being an intel base. But America itself is a "Military Industrial Complex" - including 4 civilian jobs down the supply chain for every $1 million spent on actual military kit with a military contractor or aerospace job. I think you meant Pine gap is a "military interest" or base. I'm assuming in a full scale nuclear war that it gets nuked and all Australian cities get nuked as a result of our being your allies. Our population would go from 25 million down to about 8 million in a few hours. If this happens - it's been nice knowing ya - I live in Sydney.

But friends and family out beyond the mountains would survive - and one day rebuild while America and (catastrophically) ALL the Northern Hemisphere agriculture fails and everyone starves to death in the dark. Nuclear winter lasts 5 to 10 years.

Its hard to know. My son who is pretty up on this stuff reckon American has an industrial military complex in the middle of Australia. Which would be in the Northern Territory at its bottom somewhere. Its top secret so we will never know. But that is what some have said.

I do know the US has been continually building up bases for a long time. The latest in becaudse of the threat from China in the south Pacific which is off the north of Australia. There is a pretty big military presense around the noth of Australia in the NT and Western Australia.

US military, seeking strategic advantages, builds up Australia's northern bases amid China tensions

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-military-seeking-strategic-advantages-builds-up-australias-northern-bases-2024-07-26/

United States Force Posture Initiatives

https://www.defence.gov.au/defence-activities/programs-initiatives/united-states-force-posture-initiatives

Pine Gap’s secret expansion

Pine Gap’s secret expansion - ICAN Australia

A new article by Peter Cronau states that ‘the expansion of Pine Gap’s capabilities to assist a US strike on China amplifies the risk of … a nuclear war’. It highlights the dangers of Australia assisting in nuclear war planning and is clearly contrary to the spirit of the Treaty on the...

icanw.org.au

We are sort of lucky in that if a nuclear strike does happen its more than likely going to be military bases first which are far away from cities. But then the US has also been investing in anti missile tech as well. So hopelyy they also have some satellite defense that will stop most of the bombs.

I think the concentration of bombs would be around the norther hemisphere across Europe, Isreal, Asia, Russia, and North America.

But what a horrible scenario which I hope never happens. The next couple of years is crucial I think as the war in the middle East has not ended, nor terrorism. Russia is still a bully on the block and China is sneaky and cannot be trusted.

But this seems to be all coming to a head at the same time and all the different issues are being rolled into one as China, Russia and Iran verses hopefully the forces of the US, Britain, Australia, Britain and most European nations.

But this is now complicated by the tensions in relationship Between the US and Eurpean nations like France and Germany over the Ukraine war. So who knows who your friends and enermies are at the moment.

 

[eclipsenow]

Its hard to know. My son who is pretty up on this stuff reckon American has an industrial military complex in the middle of Australia. Which would be in the Northern Territory at its bottom somewhere. Its top secret so we will never know. But that is what some have said.

You might hide some sort of military base somewhere. But the Military Industrial Complex is basically a way of speaking about a massive, coordinated command of a good fraction of the whole economy producing military kit.A MIC is a way of speaking about more than just the percentage of GDP that a nation puts in - but the single command of an entire supply chain behind that command. Every factory making stealth bombers through to bullets, shells to subs, across the whole of America is part of the MIC.

Europe doesn't really have one. They only build a third of their own stuff - and buy two thirds off America.

The EU has a few factories here and there and it's bespoke, with high duplication, confusion, and no central command. They have lots of little bits - at very high unit cost. They put a STACK of money in maybe 40% of America's - but it's mostly retirement cheques and salaries - and the hardware procurement is not coordinated.

In some ways the whole of America IS their MIC. You can't hide something like that - it's a way of describing a whole economy.

 

[stevevw]

You might hide some sort of military base somewhere. But the Military Industrial Complex is basically a way of speaking about a massive, coordinated command of a good fraction of the whole economy producing military kit.A MIC is a way of speaking about more than just the percentage of GDP that a nation puts in - but the single command of an entire supply chain behind that command. Every factory making stealth bombers through to bullets, shells to subs, across the whole of America is part of the MIC.

Europe doesn't really have one. They only build a third of their own stuff - and buy two thirds off America.

The EU has a few factories here and there and it's bespoke, with high duplication, confusion, and no central command. They have lots of little bits - at very high unit cost. They put a STACK of money in maybe 40% of America's - but it's mostly retirement cheques and salaries - and the hardware procurement is not coordinated.

In some ways the whole of America IS their MIC. You can't hide something like that - it's a way of describing a whole economy.

In some ways I think they can build the ability to act in that role if necessary. Putting the infrastructure and tech in place to be able to control if necessary. I think tech is the new economy and controlling information or rather having the ability to control information or use information is the basis for control and power.

If the US or any power can manipulate and infiltrate information from adversaries or even as seen with the Covid controls hold entire economies and communications at bay. Thats the scarey thing in a modern tech and information age that a lot of power and control is invested in what could be abused in the wrong hands if they have the tech and ability to do so. Its a cold war that has been getting warmer all the time.

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

Remember WW2?
Remember Hitler marching on France and France begging the USA for a huge air force to fly across and defend them?
Didn't happen. Not for years.
They were occupied - and it was horrendous.
They never forgot.

That's why France has its own nukes.

They never forgot - and always considered that the isolationism until Peal Harbour would be America's default position.

Since then we've had a history of western nations buying HEAPS of military kit from the USA as a sort of 'protection payment'.

But not France. They knew this was a risk!

As I've said in the other thread - the EU's 'protection payment' to America is worth a quarter of America's military industrial complex.
A quarter. $180 to $190 billion a year.
A quarter of those high paying Aerospace jobs!
It's 65% of all EU military kit!

Trump refuses to understand all this, and still whines about the mere $800 million America puts into NATO. (Someone should whisper in his ear that it's less than 0.5% of the money the USA gets back in arms sales as part of this 'little deal' America made!)

Unlike Trump, other Presidents get it!
Going back to JFK and every President since!
They discouraged an EU army - "Trust us! We'll protect you? And in the meantime - buy our kit!"

They all KNEW they had an awesome deal.

(Oh - and there was this little matter of defending against the Soviet Union as well - in a club of democratic nations that really WOULD defend each other!)

Now to Australia. We made a huge deal (for us) with the USA in the last few years.
$368 billion over the next few decades.
That's only 2 years worth of the EU's current purchase rate - but hey - we're only little Australia!

So here's where all this stands since Trump decided to betray the entire western world.
From an Aussie point of view.

Please watch Matt Bevan - "If you're listening" - from our ABC.

Also, this ABC website article is pretty spot on about how we feel.




...




Then the ABC went on to explain that the ADMINISTRATION knows what AUKUS is and would defend it even if Trump didn't know what it was - but really? Trump? We're going to trust 'back channels' - that those around Trump can make the COMMANDER IN CHIEF HIMSELF honour an agreement? This guy is so erratic I wouldn't put it past him to brush off some major international ally because Trump took offense at some joke from some media outlet down here!

So.... despite assurances from a nebulous group of administration officials - Trump himself is the problem. The article continues!

Even so, a number of Your Say contributors remain sceptical the submarines will ever be handed over to Australia.







OH yeah - an

But this is TRUMP we are talking about?

Maybe he's got a deal to offer us?

No, I wouldn't count on Trump. He all ready accused Ukraine of starting Russia terrorist attack. Or took it back. I hope nothing happens to your country or and country. But you can't depend on Trump.

 

[eclipsenow]

In some ways I think they can build the ability to act in that role if necessary. Putting the infrastructure and tech in place to be able to control if necessary. I think tech is the new economy and controlling information or rather having the ability to control information or use information is the basis for control and power.

I certainly hope they can get their act together. But developing something like an alternative to the F35 takes decades! They'll be buying from America for the next 5 to 10 years at least - and that's IF they can agree on a strategy. Some stats. (This is just the basics - military tech is a bit outside my focus.)

DIVISION CAUSES DUPLICATION: The EU's different militaries all have their own bespoke ‘weapons platforms’. EG: tanks and fighters and kit. America’s huge military is streamlined. They build just 30 weapons platforms - and LOTS of them! This creates economies of scale and brings down the cost. In sharp contrast, the EU’s 27 nations have 178 different different weapons platforms - driving up the cost per unit. This also duplicates the different personal required to service these in the field - creating the potential for confusion if different national units are thrown together in the chaos of the fog of war.

POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS: But a united military command must run from a united foreign policy framework. You cannot have 27 different national foreign policies trying to pull the strings on a military of this size - it would be like herding cats - but cats with machine guns! There is also the need for a co-ordinated body to streamline decision-making, harmonize procurement, and create a unified defence industry comparable to the centralized US military model.

In other words - for the EU to truly stand up to Russia - it must cease to exist! It must evolve into a Federation. The EU must become a country called Europe - maybe starting with a few of the core founders like Germany, France, Spain, Italy etc all becoming 'states' within the new European Federation. (Others might be attracted in once they see the economic benefits unfolding!) Then - if they get as efficient as the USA's Military Industrial Complex - and cut back to say 30 standardised weapons platforms - every country gets to produce at least one!

As a closing metaphor, Robert Baratheon from Game of Thrones has a few words of encouragement on this matter! (Winks - 2 minutes)

If the US or any power can manipulate and infiltrate information from adversaries or even as seen with the Covid controls hold entire economies and communications at bay. Thats the scarey thing in a modern tech and information age that a lot of power and control is invested in what could be abused in the wrong hands if they have the tech and ability to do so. Its a cold war that has been getting warmer all the time.

Again - I totally agree!

There are ENORMOUS civilian benefits to your nation having a well coordinated MIC!

The reason is twofold. Firstly, ordering weapons from local firms, rather than mostly importing them as the EU has been doing, would increase domestic production, lifting GDP, as well as create jobs, with the salaries spent in the European economy.​

Secondly, when cutting-edge military equipment is designed locally, the knowledge gained in the process spreads locally too, rather than staying abroad, generating so-called technological spillovers across the economy.​

​

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/business/europe-military-spending-economic-growth-intl/index.html​

 

[stevevw]

I certainly hope they can get their act together. But developing something like an alternative to the F35 takes decades! They'll be buying from America for the next 5 to 10 years at least - and that's IF they can agree on a strategy. Some stats. (This is just the basics - military tech is a bit outside my focus.)

DIVISION CAUSES DUPLICATION: The EU's different militaries all have their own bespoke ‘weapons platforms’. EG: tanks and fighters and kit. America’s huge military is streamlined. They build just 30 weapons platforms - and LOTS of them! This creates economies of scale and brings down the cost. In sharp contrast, the EU’s 27 nations have 178 different different weapons platforms - driving up the cost per unit. This also duplicates the different personal required to service these in the field - creating the potential for confusion if different national units are thrown together in the chaos of the fog of war.

POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS: But a united military command must run from a united foreign policy framework. You cannot have 27 different national foreign policies trying to pull the strings on a military of this size - it would be like herding cats - but cats with machine guns! There is also the need for a co-ordinated body to streamline decision-making, harmonize procurement, and create a unified defence industry comparable to the centralized US military model.

In other words - for the EU to truly stand up to Russia - it must cease to exist! It must evolve into a Federation. The EU must become a country called Europe - maybe starting with a few of the core founders like Germany, France, Spain, Italy etc all becoming 'states' within the new European Federation. (Others might be attracted in once they see the economic benefits unfolding!) Then - if they get as efficient as the USA's Military Industrial Complex - and cut back to say 30 standardised weapons platforms - every country gets to produce at least one!

I don't think thats going to happen considering they cannot even get on the same page on domestic issues. They tried to unite under economics and that hasn't been very successful. I think they could come to some agreements in production if they were not so tied to their party politics. Most European nations are battling to deal with civil unreast in their own nations let alone be capable of standing up to a major conflict.

As a closing metaphor, Robert Baratheon from Game of Thrones has a few words of encouragement on this matter! (Winks - 2 minutes)

I love it.

Yes one big army under Christ that is united in defeating satan and his agents of destructions.

Again - I totally agree!

There are ENORMOUS civilian benefits to your nation having a well coordinated MIC!

The reason is twofold. Firstly, ordering weapons from local firms, rather than mostly importing them as the EU has been doing, would increase domestic production, lifting GDP, as well as create jobs, with the salaries spent in the European economy.​

Secondly, when cutting-edge military equipment is designed locally, the knowledge gained in the process spreads locally too, rather than staying abroad, generating so-called technological spillovers across the economy.​

​

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/business/europe-military-spending-economic-growth-intl/index.html​

I also think its in the US interest to have satellite nations or territories where they can expand or even develop tech and intel. Have a base in the southern hemeisphere allows the US to have a more complete surveilance of the globe and different vantage points to launch themselves. This is a fundemental tactic seeing your enermies for more than one point.

China is doing the same except using economics. They get access to foreign territories and who knows what tech they have once allowed in through the front door. I'm pretty sure China owns some massive primary production in the outback. I wonder if they can see them from the US facilities. Certainly by satellite.

 

[eclipsenow]

I don't think thats going to happen considering they cannot even get on the same page on domestic issues

They're starting on some things. The EU recently announced a joint procurement exercise between a number of nations to buy military kit at a discounted price. That's a baby step in the right direction.

After COVID and now with potential military loans to face Russia, the EU itself has a lot of debt. This boring detail suddenly became interesting when TLDR YouTubers pointed out that the need to tax to pay off their debts is sort of how the Federal USA was formed AND the Federal German govt after WW1.

Yes one big army under Christ that is united in defeating satan and his agents of destructions.

That's one way to think of the church, yet our weapons are prayer, persuasion, service and suffering. While Christians can be engaged in the political process I don't buy into Christian Nationalism. (Also - this is not a theology section of the forum.)

I also think its in the US interest to have satellite nations or territories where they can expand or even develop tech and intel.

DARPA develops tech at home. BOEING and other aerospace giants also. It's about patent law, where the best people are and economies of scale. A base? That's systematically deployed according to the rulebook - not invented. Why would they develop tech in some other country? What if that country tried to claim it was theirs under their jurisdiction and laws and national interest?

Inventing stuff is hard. It requires the enormous resources of a university, or an aerospace company testing a new fighter over decades. Think of the tens of billions spent into the Aerospace industry to develop the F35! The helmet alone costs a million bucks with it's crazy HUD.

Have a base in the southern hemeisphere allows the US to have a more complete surveilance of the globe

But that's military strategy - not invention.

I'm pretty sure China owns some massive primary production in the outback

What do you mean? Did we let a state owned company in to mine directly?

 

[Malleeboy]

I'm assuming in a full scale nuclear war that it gets nuked and all Australian cities get nuked as a result of our being your allies. Our population would go from 25 million down to about 8 million in a few hours. If this happens - it's been nice knowing ya - I live in Sydney.

But friends and family out beyond the mountains would survive - and one day rebuild while America and (catastrophically) ALL the Northern Hemisphere agriculture fails and everyone starves to death in the dark. Nuclear winter lasts 5 to 10 years.

eclipsenow,

Modern nuclear weapons are generally airburst, which increase explosive damage but limits radioactivity. Furthermore, modern nuclear bombs tend to be smaller and better targeted. Even if Australian cities were targeted, which is unlikely as they have little military value, the death rate would be much lower, as our cities are spread out in suburb sprawl. Nuclear winter is largely science fiction, even the most alarmist reports have average temp in Australia dropping 5C. Australia's greatest challenge will be managing the streams of refugees coming from our near neighbors. We have plenty of food in Australia for Australia's population.

 

[eclipsenow]

eclipsenow,

Modern nuclear weapons are generally airburst, which increase explosive damage but limits radioactivity. Furthermore, modern nuclear bombs tend to be smaller and better targeted.

How small? What do you think the global average is?

Nuclear winter is largely science fiction, even the most alarmist reports have average temp in Australia dropping 5C.

I don't think you understand the latest work. It has a long and complicated history. But in the end you are half eight. The latest science shows the North will starve to death in 5 to 10 years of no crops, while Australia and Argentina are thermally protected by the oceans.

This page is a mess - I'm still rewriting and editing it. Bit the core science is listed there - but watch the YouTube's that are based on it . More fun.

Rebuilding after a full-scale nuclear war

I have heard Doomers say that if today’s technological civilisation collapsed – it is not coming back. They argue this is because we needed all those easy fossil fuels and concentrated …

eclipsenow.wordpress.com

Australia's greatest challenge will be managing the streams of refugees coming from our near neighbors. We have plenty of food in Australia for Australia's population.

Exactly! Both are true. Nuclear winter is awfully true, Australia surviving it seems also to be true. But this apocalypse would make the toilet paper hoarding of COVID look like a kindergarten dress ups in comparison!