The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows. Q4 2023 had 13% drop in murder, 6% drop in violent crime

DaisyDay

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I'm thinking about minor crimes that are no longer reported. Like shoplifting.
When I lived in NYC, I found reporting a crime to be useless. Someone hit my car so hard it spun around, but the police wouldn't take a report. My husband was punched in the face a couple of time by a guy who then tried to run him over. Two strangers went with him to the police station as witnesses but the police still refused to take a report (they just ran the guys plates and gave my husband his info, nothing more). When our bikes were stolen from the back porch, they did take a report. So, one out of three.

Part of the problem was that police didn't want their crime stats to go up; but at the same time, there was an arrest quota (illicit).
 
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Reasonably Sane

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When I lived in NYC, I found reporting a crime to be useless. Someone hit my car so hard it spun around, but the police wouldn't take a report. My husband was punched in the face a couple of time by a guy who then tried to run him over. Two strangers went with him to the police station as witnesses but the police still refused to take a report (they just ran the guys plates and gave my husband his info, nothing more). When our bikes were stolen from the back porch, they did take a report. So, one out of three.

Part of the problem was that police didn't want their crime stats to go up; but at the same time, there was an arrest quota (illicit).
I don't understand why people don't leave such a place. After 46 years I left Seattle for a lot less reasons. I'm 13 years now in central, rural Kentucky, and much happier here. And zero crime. The only time I've seen law enforcement anywhere around here was when my neighbor's cattle got on my property. I leave my keys in my cars in the driveway.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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Illegal aliens more law-abiding than native-born Americans

1712085930569.png

https://www.cato.org/publications/i...igrants-their-numbers-demographics-countries#

I've seen similar statistics before...

There are a couple different caveats to the data (which is why PolitiFact often rates claims like this as "partly true" or "mostly true" and not "completely true"

1) They often set the time period to specifically cover a range of years that makes the point they're trying to convey

For example (let's pick an unrelated topic) Pretend we were talking about food poisoning.
Hypothetical --
For Burger King, every year for the last 10 years, they've had 10 cases of food poisoning (100 cases for the decade)
For McDonalds, for the first eight years of the time period, the had 2 cases per year, but in the past two years, they've had a couple of high profile incidents that resulted 30 cases per year (total of 76 cases for the decade)


So depending on which way you want to spin it, you can make two different claims, and they'd both be accurate
"Based on data from the last decade, the likelihood of getting food poisoning is actually over 20% lower at McDonald's"
and
"Over the past 2 years, you're three times as likely to get food poisoning at McDonald's"

...would both technically be "factually true" statements, but would be employing some creative presentation in order to put a positive or negative spin on McDonald's depending on the motivations of the author.

It's similar to when people are debating extremism/terrorism for the purposes of being able to label one group or another "worse" with regards to it, the choice to specifically include or specifically exclude certain key dates (of specific events) often gives away the motivations of the publisher.


2) A lot of the data they're aggregating is based on arrest and incarceration data, and by the very nature of being undocumented, it's going to make you far less likely to get arrested for certain situations as there's a certain level of anonymity and "flying below the radar" when you're name isn't in the police systems, and you have no registered address or family members living in the area who may be able to tell police where to find you.

For instance, if a citizen assaults someone, or steals from a store, etc... "Oh, that's Bill Miller, he lives over on 9th street" or "That's Steve Jenkins's son", police have addresses and family names they can look up to find the person. Police have options when it comes time to try to make an arrest. (nothing that in many cases, arrests don't happen at the scene of the crime, they often happen days to weeks later)


3) The glaringly obvious one, the violation of immigration law, itself, is a crime. Therefore, for each person who enters the country illegally of their own will, or knowingly overstays their visa, has committed a crime.
 
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The Barbarian

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I don't understand why people don't leave such a place. After 46 years I left Seattle for a lot less reasons.
I have two sons who live in Seattle. Going there tomorrow, in fact. And there's been a marked rise in crime there. Still, it didn't break the top 25 most dangerous American cities. But not the Emerald City, anymore.

I have a daughter who lives in a suburb of St. Louis, which is one of the most dangerous American cities. There are just places downtown one needs to avoid after dark.
 
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The Barbarian

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The Barbarian

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1) They often set the time period to specifically cover a range of years that makes the point they're trying to convey
Feel free to show that this has changed significantly. I've been watching it for years and it hasn't. Notice that for the six years documented above, illegal aliens were much less likely to commit crimes than were native-born Americans. So your responsibility now, is to show us any similar period in which illegal aliens were even close to the crime rates of native-born Americans. What do you have? I'll ask again, if you forget.

2) A lot of the data they're aggregating is based on arrest and incarceration data, and by the very nature of being undocumented, it's going to make you far less likely to get arrested for certain situations as there's a certain level of anonymity and "flying below the radar" when you're name isn't in the police systems, and you have no registered address or family members living in the area who may be able to tell police where to find you.
Police in Texas determine the immigration status of criminals. That's why their data is more reliable than most. Thought you knew.

3) The glaringly obvious one, the violation of immigration law, itself, is a crime.
Not necessarily. Most illegal aliens now come in legally and overstay. Which is illegal, but not a crime. And you surely realize what a weak excuse that is. As you have probably realized by now, illegal aliens actually boost our economy, ( I'll show you again, if you like) and because they are less violent and less prone to steal than native-born Americans, they reduce the violent crime and property crime rates.
 
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Landon Caeli

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The Barbarian

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(which is why PolitiFact often rates claims like this as "partly true" or "mostly true" and not "completely true")
Well, let's take a look...

Immigrants are not more likely to commit crimes than people born in the U.S.

About a quarter of Americans surveyed incorrectly believe it is "true" that immigrants are more likely to commit crimes or be in prison than people born in the U.S., according to the NPR/Ipsos poll. But studies counter that argument.

"U.S.-born citizens are over 2 times more likely to be arrested for violent crimes, 2.5 times more likely to be arrested for drug crimes, and over 4 times more likely to be arrested for property crimes," according to a 2020 study from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

The number of criminal-related charges listed as the basis for the deportation of immigrants has also decreased over the past decade. In 2010, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement listed around 57,000 criminal-related grounds for deportation. That number decreased to less than 9,000 in 2021, data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University shows.


Villaraigosa said "undocumented immigrants commit less crimes than the native born."

He cited a 2015 study by the National Academy of Sciences that backs up this claim.

In a fact check last year, PolitiFact rated a similar claim Mostly True. It cited additional studies by scholars and partisan groups that show that the foreign-born population is less likely to commit crimes than the native-born.

It also found that researchers agree more data is needed to get a better understanding of immigration and crime. It said this was a needed clarification.

PolitiFact California agrees with these findings.

We rated Villaraigosa’s claim Mostly True.


Fact-checkers used none of the excuses you mentioned.
 
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returntosender

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DaisyDay

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I like high crime rates. That's why I can't wait to move out of Chino Hills and back to somewhere I can stop looking over my shoulder for cops all the time. I want to go to where they're too busy to deal with traffic citations.
Too busy? For a lot of places, traffic violations are a main source of revenue.
 
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DaisyDay

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Every gardener truck in Los Angeles drives under the speed limit.

(curse them)
In NY they give tickets for driving under the speed limit, too, even when there is no other traffic. Law's the law.
 
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Landon Caeli

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Too busy? For a lot of places, traffic violations are a main source of revenue.

Yes, that's how democratic lawmakers think. Always wanting to take people's money by hustling them. Oftentimes the ones most effected are the poor, who can't afford things like updated registration stickers, they can't afford to fix that cracked windshield, or broken tail light. But the left chooses to penalize them by tacking on lots of fees that they definitely can't afford, making them struggle even harder than they already are.

...They think they're doing some kind of service, I'm guessing. But really they're only causing more damage than good.
 
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Landon Caeli

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In NY they give tickets for driving under the speed limit, too, even when there is no other traffic. Law's the law.

Law's the law. No matter how damaging and destructive to the common good.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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Feel free to show that this has changed significantly. I've been watching it for years and it hasn't. Notice that for the six years documented above, illegal aliens were much less likely to commit crimes than were native-born Americans. So your responsibility now, is to show us any similar period in which illegal aliens were even close to the crime rates of native-born Americans. What do you have? I'll ask again, if you forget.

My previous post addressed the point you're talking about. Which is, most criminals aren't apprehended at the scene of a crime, it's a process involving research and legwork by detectives and officers. If you're undocumented, you have better chances of flying under the radar and not getting caught compared to a citizen who's name, address, family members, known coworkers, known places of employment, etc... are at a cop's fingertips in a system like LEADS (that's Ohio's system, but each state has their own equivalent)
Police in Texas determine the immigration status of criminals. That's why their data is more reliable than most. Thought you knew.
Yes, they determine the immigration status of the people they catch in the act or are able to get a lead on. Only 11% of crimes result in an arrest, and an even smaller percentage are actually apprehended at the scene of a crime. A null paper trail means their efforts are very hamstrung.


Not necessarily. Most illegal aliens now come in legally and overstay. Which is illegal, but not a crime. And you surely realize what a weak excuse that is. As you have probably realized by now, illegal aliens actually boost our economy, ( I'll show you again, if you like) and because they are less violent and less prone to steal than native-born Americans, they reduce the violent crime and property crime rates.

I mentioned overstays in my post. ...You'll have to clarify what you mean by something being "illegal, but not a crime"

1712187711226.png


Is overstaying your visa illegal? Is it an offense that's punishable by law? If the answer is yes (Hint: the answer is yes), then it's a crime.


Obviously illegal immigrants boost the economy in certain areas, but that's not what this conversation is about. Plus, the economic "benefits" attributed to illegal immigrants by the left are the exact same economic "benefits" that they chastise when talking about citizens who are workers. Sure, getting desperate groups of people do demeaning labor for "under the table" pay that's less than minimum wage provides an economic stimulus for other people, but that's not really a good selling point is it?

The economy boosting argument is a weak one. The cocaine trade in South Florida boosted their economy in the 1980's. When the rest of the country was in a recession, Florida had a recession proof economy during that time where you had to get on a 3-month waiting list to buy a new Mercedes and every high end restaurant had a 45 minute wait 7-nights a week. Does that mean the illicit cocaine trade was a good thing?


But back to the original point, people can't have it both ways here...

Someone can't go on and on about the "exploitative nature of labor in the US" in one breath, and in the next breath say "illegal immigration is actually good because they're desperate enough that they're willing to submit themselves to something even worse than this thing that we said was terrible 20 seconds ago"
 
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ThatRobGuy

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In NY they give tickets for driving under the speed limit, too, even when there is no other traffic. Law's the law.
NY is a hell hole in terms of driving in general...I dread it when I have to travel to it (or thru it) for work lol.

The i-90 Thruway is a combination of "person driving 49 MPH in the left lane holding up traffic" combined with "Person who keeps riding your rear end no matter how fast you go and won't pass, just hover around your bumper, and then have the nerve to flip you off 20 minutes later"

The only worse driving experience is the times I've been on the i-495 outer beltway around Washington DC lol
 
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ThatRobGuy

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NY is a hell hole in terms of driving in general...I dread it when I have to travel to it (or thru it) for work lol.

The i-90 Thruway is a combination of "person driving 49 MPH in the left lane holding up traffic" combined with "Person who keeps riding your rear end no matter how fast you go and won't pass, just hover around your bumper, and then have the nerve to flip you off 20 minutes later"

The only worse driving experience is the times I've been on the i-495 outer beltway around Washington DC lol
I amend my statement... New Jersey is the worst.

It combines both of those terrible elements, plus the inconvenience of not being able to pump my own gas lol
 
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The Barbarian

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Feel free to show that this has changed significantly. I've been watching it for years and it hasn't. Notice that for the six years documented above, illegal aliens were much less likely to commit crimes than were native-born Americans. So your responsibility now, is to show us any similar period in which illegal aliens were even close to the crime rates of native-born Americans. What do you have? I'll ask again, if you forget.

My previous post addressed the point you're talking about. Which is, most criminals aren't apprehended at the scene of a crime, it's a process involving research and legwork by detectives and officers. If you're undocumented, you have better chances of flying under the radar and not getting caught compared to a citizen who's name, address, family members, known coworkers, known places of employment, etc... are at a cop's fingertips in a system like LEADS (that's Ohio's system, but each state has their own equivalent)
No one else can find it either, If you ever do find some evidence of a period in which illegal aliens were committing crimes at rates even close to those of native-born Americans, come on back and show us hear?

I mentioned overstays in my post. ...You'll have to clarify what you mean by something being "illegal, but not a crime"
It's against the law to overstay. But it's not a crime.

Obviously illegal immigrants boost the economy in certain areas,
Can you show even one state where they don't? Neither can anyone else.

Plus, the economic "benefits" attributed to illegal immigrants by the left are the exact same economic "benefits" that they chastise when talking about citizens who are workers.
Never saw that. I always thought "the left" liked strong economies and full employment.

Sure, getting desperate groups of people do demeaning labor for "under the table" pay that's less than minimum wage provides an economic stimulus for other people, but that's not really a good selling point is it?
It's why we need reform. Those people do build the economy, but they are being cheated out of fair wages.

Does that mean the illicit cocaine trade was a good thing?
Do people coming to the United States and increasing our economy by their labor mean that cocaine is a good thing? No. Why would you think so?

Someone can't go on and on about the "exploitative nature of labor in the US" in one breath, and in the next breath say "illegal immigration is actually good
Don't see why not. I just showed you why both of these are facts. I don't think you've given this careful thought. Think about it.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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Don't see why not. I just showed you why both of these are facts. I don't think you've given this careful thought. Think about it.
I already have thought about it... The economic benefit provided by illegal immigrants is specifically because of the nature of the work they're willing to do at exploitive rates and the fact that they're not able to collect on some of the societal benefits that citizens can. If they implemented the reforms you speak of to guarantee that illegal immigrants are paid minimum wage and business owners paid payroll taxes on those employees, the economic boost you speak of goes away.

Which means you can't have both simultaneously.

If illegal immigrants were guaranteed the same worker protections, benefits, and wages as a citizen, there would literally be no difference between hiring one vs. the other.
It's against the law to overstay. But it's not a crime.

I posted the official definition of the word crime, are you using some other definition for it?

Can you show even one state where they don't? Neither can anyone else.

I means "areas" as in areas of the economy and various job sectors, not "areas" as in geographic locations.


The reason why they provide a net economic boost is because of what I mentioned before, which is that they work for under-the-table rates, and end up paying taxes one their purchases, while not being able to collect on the normal societal benefits a citizen would be able to. If you passed reforms that changed that, illegal immigrants would offer no further economic benefit than you're average citizen.
 
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The Barbarian

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I already have thought about it... The economic benefit provided by illegal immigrants is specifically because of the nature of the work they're willing to do at exploitive rates and the fact that they're not able to collect on some of the societal benefits that citizens can. If they implemented the reforms you speak of to guarantee that illegal immigrants are paid minimum wage and business owners paid payroll taxes on those employees, the economic boost you speak of goes away.
No. You see, we have a labor shortage in the U.S. that is only covered by undocumented workers. The reason we aren't in a demographic catastrophe like China, Russia, Japan or (soon Western Europe) is we have people coming in to fill in. The boost to the economy would be the same; it would just be the people making the wealth would be getting a bigger share of it. Reagan correctly noted that in a free economy, a rising tide raises all boats, Think about how illegal immigrants spend the money they make. A bigger share to them, would mean more money circulating in the economy.
 
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DaisyDay

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NY is a hell hole in terms of driving in general...I dread it when I have to travel to it (or thru it) for work lol.

The i-90 Thruway is a combination of "person driving 49 MPH in the left lane holding up traffic" combined with "Person who keeps riding your rear end no matter how fast you go and won't pass, just hover around your bumper, and then have the nerve to flip you off 20 minutes later"

The only worse driving experience is the times I've been on the i-495 outer beltway around Washington DC lol
Lols, you noticed that too? It was I-9 for me. I figured out the slow left-laners choose that lane to read, text, etc. because compared to the other lanes, fewer people move in and out of it so it's safer for distracted drivers. Another issue is that city drivers are used to 30 mph being the fastest safe speed with the top speed allowed within the city being 55 mph coupled with upstate drivers used to going 80.

The tailgaters who won't pass drive me crazy as well as those who pass & then slow down or who drive right beside you in sparse traffic. My dad was a crazy driver who could go 60 in DC during rush hour using his elbows to steer because his hands were lighting his pipe.
 
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