Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

Hans Blaster said:
Sky2050 is the name of a particular scenario that was investigated by that group, it is not the name of the software. The exact name of the GCM is not given in that website, but it would be in a scientific paper where the Sky2050 results were presented.

There are many types of AI, some of them are useful, all of them are resource pigs (as you found out).

Weather and climate modeling have always been run on serious hardware requiring large amounts of power.

The biggest problems related to power usage in supercomputers is power density and cooling. The power-consuming units are packed so tightly that it is difficult to remove the waste heat. Recently the industry has moved to warm-water cooling. In the past (~15 years ago) nearly all supercomputers were cooled by running chilled air through them. Now most large supercomputers are cooled by using warm water. Water comes in at ambient temperatures, gets heated to sub-boiling temperature by the components and then cooled outside. This configuration allows less active cooling to be used even in hot climates. In some climates entirely passive cooling of the heated water may be possible.

The LUMI supercomputer is American technology. (It was built in your state of Wisconsin.) The "green" aspects of this system involve the power source (hydro) and design of the cooling systems.

I read that editorial. It was a bit overblown. 2% of all emissions is *ALL* of IT including the big internet companies. Supercomputers are a small fraction of that. Even the largest supercomputer uses less power than one Amazon/Facebook/Google/Apple data center.

Yeah, my bad, thought that Sky2050 was the software, but it was the scenario. Wow, it makes me proud that Wisconsin has a Cray factory. It is funny how the Finnish had to rely on Wisconsinites for the LUMI supercomputer. And yes, it is true that climate modeling needs powerful hardware. Yeah, AI has many different forms, and all use high energy, so there is nothing we can do about that.

By the way, this water cooling of supercomputers sounds interesting, and very efficient compared to air conditioning for supercomputers. Regular PCs, especially the gaming computers sometimes use water cooling as well.

It does seem like the editorial was overblown, as IT means all computers, not just supercomputers. Maybe the internet companies need to switch to renewable energy. I'd be willing to pay a few more dollars on my internet bill, if I knew that nearly 100% of the energy to run the servers was renewable.

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

Halbhh said:
Well, I notice that WI residents don't have to travel as far to get to a more likely cooler zone like Lake Michigan beach or such, where even if the power grid went down, if you get in that cool water in the northern half of the lake, you're going to feel cooled down nicely I'm thinking. So, while normally you'd have A/C during a really hot day, if the grid goes down, you are far more likely to be able to get relief than someone in Texas or Florida.

Yep, I have A/C, and lake Michigan is just a few hours away. Also, so people do not burn the grid out, it is best to set the A/C to a warmer temp.

Random A/C company says the temperature for the A/C should be around 78°F (26°C) during a heatwave: Keeping Your AC Running During a Heatwave | Sierra Air Conditioning

eclipsenow · Apr 28, 2024

Given solar is doubling every 4 years and wind not far behind it, and given battery prices are still on the way down, and given the world has 100 times the potential off-river pumped hydro it could need for days or weeks of storage - I'm optimistic that 2% of CO2 emissions will just be a rounding error - not even a speeding ticket - on our way through to a Bright Green SolarPunk future.

Your post inspired me to muck around with google Gemini - trying to draw a bright green Solar Punk city with both quaint old buildings and a huge data server tower at the end of the street. Gemini decided the data centre is just hanging there - a bit like a HG Wells Martian tripod but operating on force-field legs like the 1950's Sci-Fi movie. I then gave exactly the same text to bing ai and it turned it into a children's book style.

View attachment 346770

I think the third go got it almost right. It's like a little town in Austria landed somewhere on Coruscant! (Man - Jar Jar Binks had better not be hiding in that lily pond!) Anyway - the point of all this silliness? Thinking about climate change opens up the idea of post-carbon, post-car cities. Not that we're banning the car. But we should definitely look at domesticating it. American and many Australian cities have by and large forgotten what designing for community is like.

The best talk I've heard about the history of cities through to suburbia through to New Urbanism is by JHK. But LANGUAGE WARNING applies! It's also one of the funniest -and at the same time the angriest TED talks I think I've ever heard.

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

eclipsenow said:
Given solar is doubling every 4 years and wind not far behind it, and given battery prices are still on the way down, and given the world has 100 times the potential off-river pumped hydro it could need for days or weeks of storage - I'm optimistic that 2% of CO2 emissions will just be a rounding error - not even a speeding ticket - on our way through to a Bright Green SolarPunk future.

Your post inspired me to muck around with google Gemini - trying to draw a bright green Solar Punk city with both quaint old buildings and a huge data server tower at the end of the street. Gemini decided the data centre is just hanging there - a bit like a HG Wells Martian tripod but operating on force-field legs like the 1950's Sci-Fi movie.

View attachment 346769

Wow, that is some cool AI art. Looks like a small European town. Hopefully we can witness this solar punk future, if not on Earth, then in heaven. But ideally, we need this solar punk future on Earth. By the way, isn't Google Gemini the AI that drew George Washington as an African man or something?

Hans Blaster · Apr 28, 2024

AlexB23 said:
Yeah, my bad, thought that Sky2050 was the software, but it was the scenario. Wow, it makes me proud that Wisconsin has a Cray factory. It is funny how the Finnish had to rely on Wisconsinites for the LUMI supercomputer. And yes, it is true that climate modeling needs powerful hardware. Yeah, AI has many different forms, and all use high energy, so there is nothing we can do about that.

All Cray manufacturing has been in Chippewa Falls since the 1980s.

AlexB23 said:
By the way, this water cooling of supercomputers sounds interesting, and very efficient compared to air conditioning for supercomputers. Regular PCs, especially the gaming computers sometimes use water cooling as well.

You could do something similar with a desktop machine by hooking the cooling up to the tap and slowly running the warmed water down the drain. (Large facility water cooling systems are closed loops rather than open.)

AlexB23 said:
It does seem like the editorial was overblown, as IT means all computers, not just supercomputers. Maybe the internet companies need to switch to renewable energy. I'd be willing to pay a few more dollars on my internet bill, if I knew that nearly 100% of the energy to run the servers was renewable.

If the IT industry really cared, they'd stop generating full new pages and serving them every time you click a link. It would also reduce the bandwidth needs which also use power.

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

Hans Blaster said:
All Cray manufacturing has been in Chippewa Falls since the 1980s.

You could do something similar with a desktop machine by hooking the cooling up to the tap and slowly running the warmed water down the drain. (Large facility water cooling systems are closed loops rather than open.)

If the IT industry really cared, they'd stop generating full new pages and serving them every time you click a link. It would also reduce the bandwidth needs which also use power.

It is pretty cray cray that Wisconsin has a supercomputer manufacturer here (see what I did there, with the pun). Amen brother, on the part about the IT industry loading pages that are full of unnecessary info. Even worse are the videos that auto-play on news websites, hence why I have ad blocker. Also, not every website needs fancy animations.

eclipsenow · Apr 28, 2024

AlexB23 said:
Wow, that is some cool AI art. Looks like a small European town. Hopefully we can witness this solar punk future, if not on Earth, then in heaven. But ideally, we need this solar punk future on Earth. By the way, isn't Google Gemini the AI that drew George Washington as an African man or something?

Soz - I was still editing it. I forgot how fast you guys are off-the-mark! :oldthumbsup:

Hans Blaster · Apr 28, 2024

AlexB23 said:
It is pretty cray cray that Wisconsin has a supercomputer manufacturer here (see what I did there, with the pun). Amen brother, on the part about the IT industry loading pages that are full of unnecessary info. Even worse are the videos that auto-play on news websites, hence why I have ad blocker. Also, not every website needs fancy animations.

Chippewa Falls was Seymour Cray's home town. Prior to forming his own company he worked designing computers for CDC (Control Data Corporation) in the Twin Cities. Last I knew the Cray software operations were in the Twin Cities. I have no idea where they design hardware.

eclipsenow · Apr 28, 2024

AlexB23 said:
It is pretty cray cray that Wisconsin has a supercomputer manufacturer here (see what I did there, with the pun). Amen brother, on the part about the IT industry loading pages that are full of unnecessary info. Even worse are the videos that auto-play on news websites, hence why I have ad blocker. Also, not every website needs fancy animations.

I'm actually pretty upset with the climate narrative that says we've got to have shorter showers and give up stuff. For me - 'giving up' the car isn't even about the car (or the climate as much) - it's about gaining a community. The problem with most suburbia is there's no 'there' there. No destination. No third place. If we had Solar Punk cities with streams down the middle - what would we gain in the way of places to hang out for lunch time away from the office?

It's happened before.

In South Korea they solved a traffic problem by ripping up one of the widest and most stressful highways in Seoul. Instead of using this highway to escape your office to get somewhere else for lunch, the highway itself became the destination! They unearthed the river trapped underneath, and turned it into a park. The river is laced with footpaths and cycleways and bridges and viewing platforms and picnic spots. The local shops adapted and created eateries and services along the river. Changing the whole rationale behind this zone has invigorated the local economy, prioritised public transport, and made the whole region more prosperous and popular.

With increased water breezes, the whole city temperature dropped 3.5 degrees, reducing air-conditioning costs a few blocks deep along the 6km. Before there was traffic jams, more pollution, and so much noise and stress. Now there is a river and birds and fish and wildlife. And people sitting, enjoying it all. Cheonggyecheon Stream Restoration Project

The green spaces and river might even help cool the city, protecting it from the urban heat island effect.

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

eclipsenow said:
I'm actually pretty upset with the climate narrative that says we've got to have shorter showers and give up stuff. For me - 'giving up' the car isn't even about the car (or the climate as much) - it's about gaining a community. The problem with most suburbia is there's no 'there' there. No destination. No third place. If we had Solar Punk cities with streams down the middle - what would we gain in the way of places to hang out for lunch time away from the office?

It's happened before.

In South Korea they solved a traffic problem by ripping up one of the widest and most stressful highways in Seoul. Instead of using this highway to escape your office to get somewhere else for lunch, the highway itself became the destination! They unearthed the river trapped underneath, and turned it into a park. The river is laced with footpaths and cycleways and bridges and viewing platforms and picnic spots. The local shops adapted and created eateries and services along the river. Changing the whole rationale behind this zone has invigorated the local economy, prioritised public transport, and made the whole region more prosperous and popular.

With increased water breezes, the whole city temperature dropped 3.5 degrees, reducing air-conditioning costs a few blocks deep along the 6km. Before there was traffic jams, more pollution, and so much noise and stress. Now there is a river and birds and fish and wildlife. And people sitting, enjoying it all. Cheonggyecheon Stream Restoration Project

View attachment 346772
View attachment 346773
View attachment 346774
View attachment 346775

The green spaces and river might even help cool the city, protecting it from the urban heat island effect.

Yeah, there is a Reddit space that I have been perusing, but I will never get a Reddit account (not gonna name it, as the subreddit's name has profanity) called r/[censored]cars, which discusses the issues of suburbia. Also, there is a YouTube channel named NotJustBikes which discusses the issues with car-centric societies.

America has become a wasteland of highways and suburbs.

NJB: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0intLFzLaudFG-xAvUEO-A

Video (3 minutes long)

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

Hans Blaster said:
Chippewa Falls was Seymour Cray's home town. Prior to forming his own company he worked designing computers for CDC (Control Data Corporation) in the Twin Cities. Last I knew the Cray software operations were in the Twin Cities. I have no idea where they design hardware.

That is a pretty cool tidbit of information. Also, the Cray 2 supercomputer from the mid-1980s has less computing power compared to a budget smartphone of today, or a flagship smartphone from 2014: A modern smartphone or a vintage supercomputer: which is more powerful?

eclipsenow · Apr 28, 2024

AlexB23 said:
Yeah, there is a Reddit space that I have been perusing, but I will never get a Reddit account (not gonna name it, as the subreddit's name has profanity) called r/[censored]cars, which discusses the issues of suburbia. Also, there is a YouTube channel named NotJustBikes which discusses the issues with car-centric societies.

America has become a wasteland of highways and suburbs.

NJB: Not Just Bikes

Video (3 minutes long)

Not just bikes is a classic.
I've permanently linked to one episode on the "Third Place" - which is what that river in Seoul became. That's what suburbia missing. A 'there'. A public lounge room you can hang out in and make new friends - whether that's a town square as in Europe, old fashioned Main Street in America (with wider pedestrian focused walkways and milk-bar chairs everywhere) - or even a village green as in Gilmore Girls.

Rezone

IntroductionWhat went wrong?The ugly truth — suburban sprawl:-* Steals our time:* Wastes our money:* Creates social injustice* Driving to the town square ruins it!My own definition:Feeling it — The…

eclipsenow.wordpress.com

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

eclipsenow said:
Not just bikes is a classic.
I've permanently linked to one episode on the "Third Place" - which is what that river in Seoul became. That's what suburbia missing. A 'there'. A public lounge room you can hang out in and make new friends - whether that's a town square as in Europe, old fashioned Main Street in America (with wider pedestrian focused walkways and milk-bar chairs everywhere) - or even a village green as in Gilmore Girls.

Rezone

IntroductionWhat went wrong?The ugly truth — suburban sprawl:-* Steals our time:* Wastes our money:* Creates social injustice* Driving to the town square ruins it!My own definition:Feeling it — The…

eclipsenow.wordpress.com

I actually watched the Third Place one at work during lunch a while ago, or a similar video. 20 minutes is a perfect duration to watch NJB's stuff during lunch, along with similar types of YT channels. There is a reason why no one has friends in 2024 anymore, cos the US lacks 3rd spaces and is focused on self.

eclipsenow · Apr 28, 2024

Ever see the old part-live actor, part animated "Who framed Roger Rabbit?"
It's all about a conspiracy to tear up California's trams to build more 'freeways'.
They should be called "time, money, health and life-parasites" instead of "freeways".

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

eclipsenow said:
Ever see the old part-live actor, part animated "Who framed Roger Rabbit?"
It's all about a conspiracy to tear up California's trams to build more 'freeways'.
They should be called "time, money, health and life-parasites" instead of "freeways".

I do not remember seeing it. Yeah. Sadly, there is nothing we can do. The world will fall, as the Bible stated in Revelations. We can do our best to be good stewards, but climate change will happen because of our misdoings as humans. America will build more roads, and the country will crumble. I'm gonna say this, the EU is superior to the US in a lot of ways, and I'd rather pay higher taxes to have more convenience. We can not slide back though as a society: Stewardship of the Earth & Climate Change (Genesis 2:15, Isaiah 24:4-6, Jeremiah 2:7)

eclipsenow · Apr 28, 2024

AlexB23 said:
I do not remember seeing it. Yeah. Sadly, there is nothing we can do. The world will fall, as the Bible stated in Revelations. We can do our best to be good stewards, but climate change will happen because of our misdoings as humans. America will build more roads, and the country will crumble. I'm gonna say this, the EU is superior to the US in a lot of ways, and I'd rather pay higher taxes to have more convenience. We can not slide back though as a society: Stewardship of the Earth & Climate Change (Genesis 2:15, Isaiah 24:4-6, Jeremiah 2:7)

SHORT THEOLOGICAL NOTE. Revelation is not a time-table of the end, but a gospel sermon with incredible imagery to describe the Roman persecution of Christians. Through that, it applies to all Christians that have survived persecution across all time. Best book on it? "Apocalypse now and then" by Phd in history and theology, Dr Paul Barnett.

HOPE: I like to spread awareness of climate change as a threat, and then offer hope in the technological trends. Hope in Jesus is an ultimate thing - but some young men need hope to keep them alive long enough to have that further, more eternal conversation. Because I'm into all this greenie solutions stuff because of a suicide on a doomer email list I was on years ago. I've met with the father. The forum moderator was not brave enough! Grrr!

AlexB23 · Apr 28, 2024

eclipsenow said:
SHORT THEOLOGICAL NOTE. Revelation is not a time-table of the end, but a gospel sermon with incredible imagery to describe the Roman persecution of Christians. Through that, it applies to all Christians that have survived persecution across all time. Best book on it? "Apocalypse now and then" by Phd in history and theology, Dr Paul Barnett.

HOPE: I like to spread awareness of climate change as a threat, and then offer hope in the technological trends. Hope in Jesus is an ultimate thing - but some young men need hope to keep them alive long enough to have that further, more eternal conversation. Because I'm into all this greenie solutions stuff because of a suicide on a doomer email list I was on years ago. I've met with the father. The forum moderator was not brave enough! Grrr!

Yeah, there are debates on if the Revelations is set in the future, or in the past (or maybe even both). Some say Nero was the 666 dude. So, I am not sure about Revelations, and I try to avoid going into that section of the Bible.

Hope is a good thing, and we all must have hope in Jesus. But, I see where you are coming from. Some people do not feel enough hope, so we must try to be into the green solutions to save the Earth, cos maybe, just maybe, we can make the world a better place. Yeah, I recommend we stay away from doomer email lists. Hopefully, no one else harmed themselves.

By the way, here is a positive video on climate change, where we have the chance to save our Earth [Content warning, the guy shows images of twitter posts with curse words by doomers at the start of the video in relation to how the Earth is screwed, recommended ages 15+]

AV1611VET · Apr 29, 2024

Halbhh said:
Land and sea temperatures have warmed much more than models forecast in the last year, and as of these articles various new factors being considered appear not enough to account for that spike. Relatively speaking it's quite large.

Is it fair to say this is due to sloppy scientific work?

Is it fair to say this is due to science being myopic?

Ophiolite · Apr 29, 2024

AV1611VET said:
Is it fair to say this is due to sloppy scientific work?

Is it fair to say this is due to science being myopic?

No.

AV1611VET · Apr 29, 2024

Ophiolite said:
No.

Is it fair to say you're in denial?

Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts

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Scripture is God's word, Science is God's works

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Scripture is God's word, Science is God's works

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Scripture is God's word, Science is God's works

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Scripture is God's word, Science is God's works

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Scripture is God's word, Science is God's works

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SCIENCE CAN TAKE A HIKE

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SCIENCE CAN TAKE A HIKE

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