Who will Emerge as the World's Next Great Industrial Nation?

[HARK!]

If you're talking about the 50s, that was a unique time and situation. The US was the only large, developed country with a broad industrial base that was still intact after WW2. For over a decade, we were the largest manufacturer and exporter of goods because we had no competition. Everyone else's industry had been largely demolished in the war. I doubt that we will ever again have a manufacturing economy. Our focus will be research and design. Let other countries make what we conceptualize and develop. We should be the world's #1 nation in intellectual capital--not in nuts and bolts and screwing parts together.

I was talking about the early 1900's.

Our research and design catapulted Japan into industrial dominance; when they stole our R&D and sold it back to us in product.

 

[disciple Clint]

I was talking about the early 1900's.

Our research and design catapulted Japan into industrial dominance; when they stole our R&D and sold it back to us in product.

To say nothing about helping them to rebuild their factories and provide management systems that increased productivity, W. Edwards Deming.

 

[Homeowner]

China has the strongest economy and highest population in the world. I don't see China collapsing any time soon. As long as people buy MADE IN CHINA products, China prospers.

US is the world's strongest economy and China's population is in deep decline. They have very few friends and frequent border clashes with their neighbours. Their internal security needs are stupendous. They are corrupt and stiffled by CCP.

Their army is untested, poor trained and 70% composed of single child families that can't afford casualties due to Chinese cultural norms of boys being expected to look after their parents.

Their economy is coming apart. They are not going to make any stellar performances any time soon.

 

[Pavel Mosko]

China's housing bubble is already beginning to burst. Should this happen (and it would seem inevitable) ;this commentator explains how this will cause a chain reaction that will cripple China as a industrial nation. Who will fill the void? How will this impact the world economy, and for how long? It seems that there is trouble ahead, but also great opportunity. Will Walmart survive this transition?

Wow I stumbled on that guy / the same video channel also a few weeks back. He's got some interesting information, the whole real estate bubble could indeed bring down the CCP. Some of the Indian Journalists are also fun to watch. The TFI global people are especially fun to watch because they take great delight in covering all the stories that the Chinese Communist party doesn't want covered. President XI apparently has been dodging a few assassination attempts and other kinds of coups, and his position is very tenuous, like he hasn't left the country in a while because he fears a coup. Some of the old Soviet leaders apparently had the same problem like Gorbachev and Kruchev.


I actually have been thinking about this topic a lot but more in terms of how funny it would be if the Canadian government fell or abdicated to the Truckers Protest which then formed a Truckers government for Canada.

 

[mindlight]

China's housing bubble is already beginning to burst. Should this happen (and it would seem inevitable) ;this commentator explains how this will cause a chain reaction that will cripple China as a industrial nation. Who will fill the void? How will this impact the world economy, and for how long? It seems that there is trouble ahead, but also great opportunity. Will Walmart survive this transition?

The first country to make asteroid mining and space energy commercially viable. From then on energy and minerals and possibly food supplies are well nigh unlimited in scope and the earthbound demographic and environmental limitations no longer apply. This is a race between the American private sector and the Chinese right now.

 

[FireDragon76]

I would say India. If they can get their social and internal problems in order.

India is too dysfunctional. The conventional Hindu religious system, dominated by brahmins and the caste system holds it back and prevents progress.

 

[ottawak]

I would say India. If they can get their social and internal problems in order.

It could still be us, given the same hypothetical.

 

[RDKirk]

In those days the U.S. produced superior products. There was a time when the U.S. was by far the greatest exporter in the world. It was because we delivered superior products at a bargain. It brought us prosperity; and Ma and Pa shops excluded the need for us to visit Walmart to buy their junk.

No, the US gained undisputed global economic supremacy because of WWII. Every other world industry had been smashed flat by the war (with the US doing much of the smashing), while the US was protected from the ravages of the war by geography to become a production powerhouse purely by dent of being the "last man standing." The world was rebuilding from the war and had not choice but "made in the USA."

But by the end of the 1960s, Europe and Japan had rebuilt. They were sufficiently producing for their own needs and were making a strong push of export even to the US.

Subsequently, the US economy was beginning to plunge. The US would have suffered an economic collapse in the early 70s, if women had not streamed into the job market to change household incomes from one-salary to two-salary.

As it was, Nixon was forced to do some very fancy and unorthodox footwork to keep the economy afloat. Remember Nixon's mandatory national wage-and-price freeze? What president could get away with that today? That's just how close the US economy was to the precipice.

But that global economic supremacy was caused by a singularly unique factor. No other country will ever gain that much global economic power, nor will the US attain it again, because that peculiar world war situation will not be repeated.

 

[BobRyan]

Rev 13 seems to point to America as a super-power leading nation right to the end of time...

 

[RDKirk]

Rev 13 seems to point to America as a super-power leading nation right to the end of time...

You found America in Revelation 13? Do tell.

 

[BobRyan]

You found America in Revelation 13? Do tell.

It points to a world super power that comes into being after the 1260 years of dark ages described in Rev 12 and 13 -- which ended in 1798, not many super powers first came into being after 1798

 

[Estrid]

I prescribe to the idea that once a population reaches a certain density, nature begins to pull things apart. If true, that could work against India.

In the 70s Americans talked about how India should
just be "written off" , left to starve.

 

[Estrid]

Have we learned nothing, have we not learned that when we depend on other nations for our finished products we are at their mercy. What if China elected to cutoff all our medications tomorrow, how many people would die? Why did we not have protective masks at the beginning of the pandemic, because they were being manufactured in China. Time to wake up, this is a matter of national security.

As if any country is not heavily reliant on trade.

 

[2PhiloVoid]

It points to a world super power that comes into being after the 1260 years of dark ages described in Rev 12 and 13 -- which ended in 1798, not many super powers first came into being after 1798

So Bob, I have a question: From what you're implying here, am I to take it that the year A.D. 538 was particularly special in some way?

I'm just wondering what you think. Thanks!

 

[disciple Clint]

As if any country is not heavily reliant on trade.

The point is that we do not have to be dependent on China of all nations for things of importance to national security.

 

[Estrid]

The point is that we do not have to be dependent on China of all nations for things of importance to national security.

Was it?

As for " of all nations" America has a long history of political and
military intervention in Chinese affairs. As noted previously.

It was Americas choice to cross the ocean, land troops, patrol
our rivers with gun boats, arm one side of our civil war, enable
secession, and more.

The animosity is an American creation.

THAT is " the point ".

And of course that if you dont want to be weak and vulnerable
because of foolish dependence on others- dont do it.

Depending on England or Canada for something would not be foolish,
depending on a country that is your enemy is foolish. Sure.

But what was really foolish was the zero- gain actions that created the
distrust in China for America.

 

[James_Lai]

China's housing bubble is already beginning to burst. Should this happen (and it would seem inevitable) ;this commentator explains how this will cause a chain reaction that will cripple China as a industrial nation. Who will fill the void? How will this impact the world economy, and for how long? It seems that there is trouble ahead, but also great opportunity. Will Walmart survive this transition?

It can only be China. Wise, kind, hard-working country. Nobody is a match by a long shot.

Bubbles get inflated and bust all the time

But Chinese success is unstoppable

 

[Gene2memE]

For those doubting China's success, consider this:

In 2005, nearly 45% of China's GDP was generated via the production of goods for export. In 2020, that had fallen to 22%. As a reference, the US peaked at about 11% in 1917 and has averaged about 7-8% in the last 20 years.

What's driving the growth of China is now China. The country is increasingly moving away from an export based economy and is becoming an economy based around its internal consumption due to rapidly expanding middle class.

Once you get that export GDP share down below about 12-15%, China basically becomes self sustaining. The market is so large that China can become internally self-reliant, and it doesn't need the rest of the world barring primary imports (energy products mostly). The current five year plan emphasizes that: its aimed at expanding domestic self-sufficiency and the industrial base, while ensuring import substitution enterprises get a boost.

 

[Gene2memE]

The world was rebuilding from the war and had not choice but "made in the USA."

You'd think so, but the analysis shows that the US focused inwards after the war. Exports as a share of GDP bumped along at 3-4% of GDP from 1949 all the way through to 1972. That's about in line with the average of the preceding inter-war period, and notably worse than the period before WW1.

WW2 produced the greatest redistribution of wealth within the US that the country has ever seen. The wealthiest 1% controlled 18% of income earned in the US in 1935. By 1945, this had dropped to just under 10%, and in some measures as low as 7%. (By 2020 it was up to a record high of 27%).

The share of people in the middle classes went from roughly 20% in 1935 to nearly 65% in 1950. Mostly because employment opportunities for females, blacks and non Anglo Saxon immigrants soared (although this was already being rolled back by 1945).

Real incomes of the middle class rose more than 90% in that same 15 year period. In comparison, total real incomes have risen 7% in the last 15 years (and better than 70% of that increase has been captured by the top 10% of income earners). There are some analyses that suggest that real middle class incomes in the US are lower than the were before the onset of the Great Financial Crisis.

 

[RDKirk]

You'd think so, but the analysis shows that the US focused inwards after the war. Exports as a share of GDP bumped along at 3-4% of GDP from 1949 all the way through to 1972. That's about in line with the average of the preceding inter-war period, and notably worse than the period before WW1.

That doesn't change what I said, considering the post-war rise of American civilian-market production. That's 3-4% of a much larger production output.

WW2 produced the greatest redistribution of wealth within the US that the country has ever seen. The wealthiest 1% controlled 18% of income earned in the US in 1935. By 1945, this had dropped to just under 10%, and in some measures as low as 7%. (By 2020 it was up to a record high of 27%).[/quote]

I would not call that a "redistribution of wealth." That phrase implies a pie of fixed size, a zero-sum game.

In the post-war period, the pie itself grew enormously. Everybody got richer, although the wealthiest 1% got richer at a lower rate than those of lesser incomes.