Ukraine Might Still Loose the War

[Merrill]

Again with the appeasement. What happens when Russia rolls up to the Polish border and demands territory? Or Moldova? Or Finland?

That would 100% be on Russia. NATO has no interest in invading Russia. And this sort of intervention into a regional conflict is one of the UN's primary missions. Arguably, the only thing that's prevented the UN from stepping in is Russia's permanent position (and therefore veto) on the Security Council.

True, but that does not mean that we don't have a vested interest in maintaining the sovereignty of independent nations.

Based on 2021 statistics, the US is #12 on the list of Ukraine's export partners, and they do significant business with Western Europe: Ukraine Exports By Country

Russia barely squeaks in ahead of Italy. Ukraine may be "traditionally" in the Russian sphere of influence, but given Russia's behavior towards them over the last decade, they've been looking to change that - as is their right as a sovereign nation.

Allowing Russia to annex Ukraine would also go against our national interests.

Russia is NOT going to go attack Poland or Estonia --those are NATO countries. That is a neocon taking point meant to scare people. Putin is an evil guy, but he isn't completely insane. NATO expanded east into the Russian sphere--Putin wasn't moving west.

Imagine if Russia worked with Mexican separatists to overthrow Mexico's government and installed a puppet in there. Then they started moving arms and equipment into Mexico. The US would go completely ballistic, and attack Mexico. Tell me that isn't what happened with the Ukraine

Ukraine does do significant business with the EU --that is why I said EU membership is important.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Russia is NOT going to go attack Poland or Estonia --those are NATO countries. That is a neocon taking point meant to scare people. Putin is an evil guy, but he isn't completely insane. NATO expanded east into the Russian sphere--Putin wasn't moving west.

NATO is a defensive alliance that is open to anyone who wishes to join and meets the requirements. No country - Russia included - is entitled to a sphere of influence. A country builds a sphere of influence by being a good neighbor and a good trading partner and a protector. Russia has been none of those things (except perhaps a trading partner, but even in that they've been exploitative) to the former Eastern Bloc countries, which has driven them out of the Russian sphere of influence - and in some cases, into alliance with NATO. I can understand Russia's frustration at this, but they've brought it on themselves.

And I made no mention of Estonia. Moldova isn't a NATO country. Nor is Finland (yet). Should we let Russia invade them too?

Imagine if Russia worked with Mexican separatists to overthrow Mexico's government and installed a puppet in there. Then they started moving arms and equipment into Mexico. The US would go completely ballistic, and attack Mexico. Tell me that isn't what happened with the Ukraine

That is not what happened in Ukraine.

 

[Michael Snow]

"Russia will win" USMC Intelligence Officer. Just a matter of how far our Deep State will push it, "fighting to the last Ukrainian" as Linsey Graham put it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1641541132738764800

 

[Michael Snow]

Basic problem is American war mongers have no clue of the basics here.

USA broke its word. "The West is principally responsible" for this war. Until we have literate citizens that can read the basic history rather than just spout opinions the devastation goes on as we support our Neo-con politicians, both Dems and Reps.

Our Neo-cons killed the peace deal LAST April that was birthed by Israeli PM Bennett, who said we killed it. Over 200,000 bodies
since then.

Tucker Carlson "This is insane" on the broken peace negotiations

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Our Neo-cons killed the peace deal LAST April that was birthed by Israeli PM Bennett, who said we killed it. Over 200,000 bodies
since then.

Yeah, about that...

Former Israeli prime minister rebuts claim, boosted by Russia, that the US blocked a Ukraine peace agreement: 'It's unsure there was any deal to be made'

Naftali Bennett, Israel's prime minister at the start of the war, said that peace talks broke down after Russia massacred civilians in Bucha, Ukraine.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Hans Blaster]

"Russia will win" USMC Intelligence Officer. Just a matter of how far our Deep State will push it, "fighting to the last Ukrainian" as Linsey Graham put it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1641541132738764800

Scott Ritter? A guy who's been pushing Russia's view since at least the start of the invasion? Nah. I think I'll pass on taking his word for anything.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Russia is NOT going to go attack Poland or Estonia --those are NATO countries.

If Russia isn't going to attack NATO countries, then why do you say that Russia would attack if Ukraine joined NATO? Either Russia is willing to attack NATO or it isn't.

 

[Merrill]

If Russia isn't going to attack NATO countries, then why do you say that Russia would attack if Ukraine joined NATO? Either Russia is willing to attack NATO or it isn't.

if Russia saw that NATO membership was going to be ratified for Ukraine, it would go all-out against that nation. That is part of the reason why were are where we are.

Russia does not view NATO as a defensive alliance --it views it as an existential threat.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Russia does not view NATO as a defensive alliance --it views it as an existential threat.

If your neighbor threatens to break down your door if you get a security system because he thinks it's a threat, do you bow to his demands, or do you get the security system? Personally, I'd get the security system.

 

[Michael Snow]

Scott Ritter? A guy who's been pushing Russia's view since at least the start of the invasion? Nah. I think I'll pass on taking his word for anything.

Two faithful witnesses who both served in wartime and actually know something about it, say the same thing-- Ritter and
Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.) who also served as senior advisor to SecDef during the Trump administration.

 

[Michael Snow]

Russia is NOT going to go attack Poland or Estonia --those are NATO countries. That is a neocon taking point meant to scare people. Putin is an evil guy, but he isn't completely insane. NATO expanded east into the Russian sphere--Putin wasn't moving west.

Imagine if Russia worked with Mexican separatists to overthrow Mexico's government and installed a puppet in there. Then they started moving arms and equipment into Mexico. The US would go completely ballistic, and attack Mexico. Tell me that isn't what happened with the Ukraine

Ukraine does do significant business with the EU --that is why I said EU membership is important.

Most Americans are simply lemmings when it comes to war, dancing to the war drums. You see almost no sign on social media that our war mongers have any clue that USA broke its word, that "The West is principally responsible" for this war, which has been going on in the Donbass for over 8 years, since the USA backed coup that overthrew a democratically elected government. Ukraine Debacle Timeline

 

[Hans Blaster]

Two faithful witnesses who both served in wartime and actually know something about it, say the same thing-- Ritter and
Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.) who also served as senior advisor to SecDef during the Trump administration.

Macgregor the repeatedly wrong? No thanks.

Who ya gonna trott out next Mearsheimer, Girkin, Solovyov?

 

[Gene2memE]

Two faithful witnesses who both served in wartime and actually know something about it, say the same thing-- Ritter and
Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.) who also served as senior advisor to SecDef during the Trump administration.

Ritter and Macgregor have both been apologists for Russia for years. Both have also been consistently wrong about the war in Ukraine, Russia's intentions and lied, repeatedly, about the recent and not-so-recent history of Russia-Ukraine, Russia-US and Russia-NATO relations.

 

[USincognito]

Giving Ukraine NATO membership would be insane, and almost immediately lead to full-scale conflict between NATO and Russia.

Given how Ukraine, using NATO combined arms doctrine with Soviet and modern Russian equipment supplemented with NATO systems has been systematically destroying the Russian military, I'm not sure any rational actor in the Kremlin thinks a full on war with NATO would end up any differently.

Russia can also do another general mobilization and throw another 500k troops at Ukraine.

I'd suggest they order 500,000 more body bags, but since the Russians abandon dead and even wounded where they are hit, I don't think they'd need all of them.

 

[Merrill]

Given how Ukraine, using NATO combined arms doctrine with Soviet and modern Russian equipment supplemented with NATO systems has been systematically destroying the Russian military, I'm not sure any rational actor in the Kremlin thinks a full on war with NATO would end up any differently.

I'd suggest they order 500,000 more body bags, but since the Russians abandon dead and even wounded where they are hit, I don't think they'd need all of them.

a full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO means hyper-sonic warheads hitting London and New York. We don't want that.

 

[USincognito]

a full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO means hyper-sonic warheads hitting London and New York. We don't want that.

Could you clarify to which missile system/s you refer?

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Could you clarify to which missile system/s you refer?

The only operational hypersonic system that I'm aware of is Kinzhal. It's no threat to New York whatsoever - the max advertised range of 1900 miles would mean that a Russian aircraft would have to make it halfway across the Atlantic (or into Greenland/Canada if going over the North Pole) undetected in order to launch. London (or any city in Europe) is a feasible target, but frankly, it's not a particularly powerful missile (max yield of 50kt with a nuclear warhead, putting it firmly in the category of a "tactical" nuke rather than a "strategic" nuke), just one that's difficult to shoot down due to its speed.

I don't think it's a realistic fear. Kinzhal isn't (and isn't intended to be) a shock-and-awe, massively destructive weapon - its payload isn't any larger than a standard air-launched cruise missile. Rather, it's meant to penetrate missile defenses for precision strikes on high-value targets.

 

[Merrill]

The Russians still have the largest conventional ICBM arsenal in the world.

Now how much of that is actually operational is up to debate. But even if 50% of it is working, they could destroy the world.

Now do I think that is going to happen? Not really, but a direct conflict with NATO would be game-over for everyone.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

The Russians still have the largest conventional ICBM arsenal in the world.

Now how much of that is actually operational is up to debate. But even if 50% of it is working, they could destroy the world.

Now do I think that is going to happen? Not really, but a direct conflict with NATO would be game-over for everyone.

The problem with this position is that it grants Russia tacit permission to do more or less whatever it wants. That is very much not in anyone's best interests (except for Russia's) - there has to be a line somewhere.

 

[Hans Blaster]

The Russians still have the largest conventional ICBM arsenal in the world.

Now how much of that is actually operational is up to debate. But even if 50% of it is working, they could destroy the world.

Now do I think that is going to happen? Not really, but a direct conflict with NATO would be game-over for everyone.

Then why is it relevant. There is no direct conflict.