Birthrates in the U.S. hit historic low in 2023, preliminary CDC data show

[Ana the Ist]

I ain’t never been in no college (I determined that had I attended an institute of higher learnin’, I’d’ve never escaped), but the myth that every American Child deserves/aspires to a college education is a factor in the inflation of college tuition.
IF future children need “more schoolin’” before taking their place in the workforce, the Nation would serve itself well to adequately provide such.
Once this becomes a policy-goal of a government, then the meritocracy model can be implemented.
Right now, it’s “can you afford it!? Sure you can, with these humongous loans!”

The "You get what you pay for" principle applies here.

Our public school education system isn't exactly so great that it's the envy of all nations across the globe. I can only imagine our higher education system would similarly fall if we were to fund it in the same manner as our K-12 school systems.

 

[Fantine]

South Korea's economy can be brutal. They've had to endure the worst aspects of neoliberalism.

South Korea is a very homogeneous culture. Rural farmers have married Mail order brides from the Philippines and Southeast Asia because rural girls want careers. This will help stabilize the population.

 

[wing2000]

That could change for certain fields in the future, so hopefully you've research ways to transfer that into another type of tax-deferred account

When I first got into the IT field, it was the "norm" that people needed at a degree in computer science for such endeavors.... that's changed quite a bit. Over the last 2 years, we've hired more people with no college (but with certifications) than degreed people.

529 funds can be used for trade schools as well.

 

[Estrid]

The number of babies born in the United States fell by 2 percent in 2023, according to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The drop signals a return to the downward trend in birthrates seen before the pandemic, with numbers hitting historic lows.

The decline follows relative stability in the birthrate from 2021 to 2022 after a modest 1 percent rise from 2020 to 2021, when the coronavirus pandemic raged.

Hamilton also noted that the data show the fourth consecutive increase in the yearly rate of caesarean deliveries since 2020. [to 32.4%] That is a worrying trend because of the high risk of complications associated with caesarean versus vaginal births.

Julia Strasser, director of the Jacobs Institute of Women’s Health and an assistant research professor of health policy and management at George Washington University, said that although experts have not pinpointed a single cause for this decline, factors such as student loan debt, high housing costs and economic uncertainty are thought to influence younger generations’ decisions to delay or forgo having children.

Strasser added that recent court rulings on birth control, fertility treatments and women’s reproductive health also could have an effect on birthrates.

--

From the CDC link, the total fertility rate was 1.62 births per woman. Replacement rate would be a little over 2 per woman.

Could you graph that with the falling IQ?

 

[The Barbarian]

A declining birthrate is an argument for immigration reform. I'm OK with improved border security, but we need people willing to work. Guest workers should be fully documented, treated humanely, and paid fairly. Sure, they'll send money to families in their home countries, but they'll also spend money here. With a shrinking pool of native-born workers, immigrants will be necessary to keep our economy growing. This should be common sense.

This is precisely why Russia, China, Japan, and many other developed nations will be having serious problems in the coming decades, while we will not. And it's not a conservative/liberal issue. It's something Americans have always celebrated:

President Ronald Reagan gives his Farewell Address to the Nation. In doing so, he defined his vision of “the shining city upon a hill.”
“In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here.”

They come here not to replace us or overcome us. They come because they believe in the promise of the American Dream. They don't seek to destroy it; they want to be part of it.

 

[rjs330]

A declining birthrate is an argument for immigration reform. I'm OK with improved border security, but we need people willing to work. Guest workers should be fully documented, treated humanely, and paid fairly. Sure, they'll send money to families in their home countries, but they'll also spend money here. With a shrinking pool of native-born workers, immigrants will be necessary to keep our economy growing. This should be common sense.

I agree with this. The US needs to make it easier to come here and become a citizen. We don't need more workers. We need more citizens. I think many of our illegal workers would become citizens if it were easier. There's much we could do but neither side has offered up anything. It's quite frustrating.

 

[rjs330]

there was a 27 year old who wasn't working, but owned a home valued at $450k and had $600k in the bank, and said "I'm not working, so I need you to send me some money", our immediate response would be "uhhh what?!?! Dude, sell that house and downsize and cut out all the vacations and bus trips to Atlantic city" before we'd consider giving them a dime. But you replace 27 with 67, and then all of the sudden it becomes completely acceptable.

I see your point, however being close to that age range there is a coupie of issues one is the cost of living and availability of downsizing. There certainly may be places where downsizing is viable. I have a house that is worth $400,000. A downsize for me would very difficult due to the unavailability of cheaper places. My house is paid for so renting is stupid.
I will need to do something someday as like my Dad I won't be able to take care of my property anymore. So I will struggle to find a place because the cheaper ones are taken very quickly.

Secondly there absolutely us age discrimination for jobs.

But I do agree with you on the money issue. I would have an income requirement. If I have a certain amount of money in income or in the bank you shouldn't get social security until you need it. I've got a decent retirement. It's not a ton but we can shrink expenses and a live okay and wouldn’t need social security. People like me shouldn't get it.

If you've got $400000 in the bank you don't need it either. Not of you invest right and use it wisely. At some point you might need it, but it can wait until you do. I would absolutely make it needs based rather than age based

 

[rjs330]

And I'm not even opposed to free college in the way that the Nordic countries do it.

Meritocratic based entry requirements, and an extremely rigorous selection process for the "specialized" degrees that are evaluated, by in large, by analysts looking at market conditions and job forecasts.

I completely agree. In today's world in the US college is very expensive. Often the kids don't even get jobs in the field they went to school for or jobs that don't allow them to pay thier loans off for a lot of years. The Nordic way would cut down on this a lot and would re-install a job market that wouldn't demand a college education.

 

[jayem]

I agree with this. The US needs to make it easier to come here and become a citizen. We don't need more workers. We need more citizens. I think many of our illegal workers would become citizens if it were easier. There's much we could do but neither side has offered up anything. It's quite frustrating.

Back in 2013, a bill that would modernize immigration was introduced in the Senate. S.744 addressed the most important immigration issue that no one talks about. Which is what to do with all of the undocumented immigrants who have been living and working in the US for years. I've heard estimates of over 10,000,000. Aside from agricultural workers, many are blue-collar housekeeping and maintenance employees who just want to earn money for their families. These are people who don't smuggle fentanyl or form criminal gangs. Under S.744, they would have to register, pay a $1,000 fee, and pass a background check. Then they would receive RPI--Resident Provisional Immigrant--status. This lasts for 10 years. If they have obeyed all the laws and stayed out of trouble, they're eligible for Permanent Resident Alien (Green Card) status. Or if they want, they can begin the naturalization process to become citizens. The DREAM Act, which applied to minor children brought into the US by their parents, was included in the bill. Not to mention that S.744 also beefed up border security by expanding the number of border patrol agents, modernized electronic monitoring, and funded physical barriers where feasible. S.744 was a very comprehensive, and sensible piece of legislation. It passed the Senate with a decisive majority--all the Democrats and 14 Republicans voted for it, and Pres. Obama was ready to sign it. But the Republican controlled House said it was an unacceptable amnesty, and never even gave it a hearing. A triumph of bigotry and political asininity over constructive rationality.

A link to the full bill:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/744

And BTW, what's wrong with amnesty? It's just another term for forgiveness. And S.744 is an earned forgiveness:

1) Confession. Undocumented immigrants must register, and pass a background check.
2) Repentance. S(he) must pay a fine and work on the books, staying out of trouble for 10 years.
3) Forgiveness. The person is now eligible to live here permanently and possibly become a citizen.

Doesn't this follow the Christian paradigm?

 

[rjs330]

Back in 2013, a bill that would modernize immigration was introduced in the Senate. S.744 addressed the most important immigration issue that no one talks about. Which is what to do with all of the undocumented immigrants who have been living and working in the US for years. I've heard estimates of over 10,000,000. Aside from agricultural workers, many are blue-collar housekeeping and maintenance employees who just want to earn money for their families. These are people who don't smuggle fentanyl or form criminal gangs. Under S.744, they would have to register, pay a $1,000 fee, and pass a background check. Then they would receive RPI--Resident Provisional Immigrant--status. This lasts for 10 years. If they have obeyed all the laws and stayed out of trouble, they're eligible for Permanent Resident Alien (Green Card) status. Or if they want, they can begin the naturalization process to become citizens. The DREAM Act, which applied to minor children brought into the US by their parents, was included in the bill. Not to mention that S.744 also beefed up border security by expanding the number of border patrol agents, modernized electronic monitoring, and funded physical barriers where feasible. S.744 was a very comprehensive, and sensible piece of legislation. It passed the Senate with a decisive majority--all the Democrats and 14 Republicans voted for it, and Pres. Obama was ready to sign it. But the Republican controlled House said it was an unacceptable amnesty, and never even gave it a hearing. A triumph of bigotry and political asininity over constructive rationality.

A link to the full bill:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/744

And BTW, what's wrong with amnesty? It's just another term for forgiveness. And S.744 is an earned forgiveness:

1) Confession. Undocumented immigrants must register, and pass a background check.
2) Repentance. S(he) must pay a fine and work on the books, staying out of trouble for 10 years.
3) Forgiveness. The person is now eligible to live here permanently and possibly become a citizen.

Doesn't this follow the Christian paradigm?

We need a complete overhaul and not just amnesty. A complete overhaul would mean a complete shut down at the border. Strict laws of immediate deportation if caught crossing illegally. A much more robust system to arrest those who have overstayed their visas and deport them. Along with verification laws for all employers where they must access the system and verify whether or not person has a work visa or a legal SSN before giving them a job. Severe penalties for hiring illegals. All of which would make sure people are here legally and working legally. They would have to be paid fair wages as legal workers.

Along with a change in laws that make it much easier to apply to come either on a green card just to work or to come and live as a citizen here. We could have work sponsorships for employers who need workers. If you want to be a citizen then as long as you don't have a criminal record, you live here and hold down a job, don't commit crimes, aren't a gang member, learn English and pass a civics class and test, you are welcome to stay and be a citizen. No excessive paperwork needed, no thousands of dollars in attorneys fees etc.

But I don't see any of this happening from either side.

If you are going to do amnesty, then just do it. No fines or anything. All that does is keep people illegal because they don't want a fine and would rather stay illegal. Of you want a fine then, you would have to have a much more robust system for you ding up the illegals for those who do t voluntarily step forward.

 

[jayem]

We need a complete overhaul and not just amnesty. A complete overhaul would mean a complete shut down at the border. Strict laws of immediate deportation if caught crossing illegally. A much more robust system to arrest those who have overstayed their visas and deport them. Along with verification laws for all employers where they must access the system and verify whether or not person has a work visa or a legal SSN before giving them a job. Severe penalties for hiring illegals. All of which would make sure people are here legally and working legally. They would have to be paid fair wages as legal workers.

Along with a change in laws that make it much easier to apply to come either on a green card just to work or to come and live as a citizen here. We could have work sponsorships for employers who need workers. If you want to be a citizen then as long as you don't have a criminal record, you live here and hold down a job, don't commit crimes, aren't a gang member, learn English and pass a civics class and test, you are welcome to stay and be a citizen. No excessive paperwork needed, no thousands of dollars in attorneys fees etc.

But I don't see any of this happening from either side.

If you are going to do amnesty, then just do it. No fines or anything. All that does is keep people illegal because they don't want a fine and would rather stay illegal. Of you want a fine then, you would have to have a much more robust system for you ding up the illegals for those who do t voluntarily step forward.

I think we're mostly on the same page. I'm all in for tighter border security. But government should still offer amnesty to those undocumented immigrants who--aside from illegally entering--are otherwise law abiding, and have been living, working, and contributing to our economy for years. They could number in the millions. Rounding up and deporting all such persons is impossible. We must provide these folks with a way to come out of the closet, and live in the open. Because that's what a modern, civilized, humanitarian society does.

 

[Pommer]

We need a complete overhaul and not just amnesty. A complete overhaul would mean a complete shut down at the border.

To immigration? Sure that’s easy, if a person isn’t a part of the $323 billion worth of commerce that flows across our border, they don’t get in. In six weeks, they won’t even bother trying to get in any more.

Strict laws of immediate deportation if caught crossing illegally. A much more robust system to arrest those who have overstayed their visas and deport them. Along with verification laws for all employers where they must access the system and verify whether or not person has a work visa or a legal SSN before giving them a job. Severe penalties for hiring illegals. All of which would make sure people are here legally and working legally. They would have to be paid fair wages as legal workers.

All of this will need a functional Congress, any ideas of where we might buy one?

Along with a change in laws that make it much easier to apply to come either on a green card just to work or to come and live as a citizen here. We could have work sponsorships for employers who need workers. If you want to be a citizen then as long as you don't have a criminal record, you live here and hold down a job, don't commit crimes, aren't a gang member, learn English and pass a civics class and test, you are welcome to stay and be a citizen. No excessive paperwork needed, no thousands of dollars in attorneys fees etc.

Immigrants are stereotypically notorious for “not learning English”, my grandmother got here in 1902 and when I began to remember her in 1962, it was always her mother tongue from “the old country”. Their kids though, often gifted in English.
I’d let them have citizenship with a decent reading/recitation of the first verse of the Star Spangled Banner, with the other “necessaries” satisfied.

But I don't see any of this happening from either side.

If you are going to do amnesty, then just do it. No fines or anything. All that does is keep people illegal because they don't want a fine and would rather stay illegal. Of you want a fine then, you would have to have a much more robust system for you ding up the illegals for those who do t voluntarily step forward.

We have seemed to wandered away from the course where “politics” used to be the arena we “fought-the-good*-fight” and now instead of politics being the venue, they’re threatening to turn into the actual “weapons” we use to fight the fight.
This is untenable, and has to end.
And it will.

Let’s first vote in a Congress that’ll do the impossible, and pass bipartisan legislation once again!



*generic, not that one 1 Tim 6:12

 

[rjs330]

To immigration? Sure that’s easy, if a person isn’t a part of the $323 billion worth of commerce that flows across our border, they don!t get in. In six weeks, they won’t even bother trying to get in any more.

Illegal immigration.

All of this will need a functional Congress, any ideas of where we might buy one?

Good question.

Immigrants are stereotypically notorious for “not learning English”, my grandmother got here in 1902 and when I began to remember her in 1962, it was always her mother tongue from “the old country”. Their kids though, often gifted in English.
I’d let them have citizenship with a decent reading/recitation of the first verse of the Star Spangled Banner, with the other “necessaries” satisfied.

They should learn English to be a citizen. If they just want to get a work Visa they wouldn't need to learn anything. To be a citizen they don't need to be completely fluent. Half of native Ameticans aren't fluent in English lol. But they should be conversational enough.

Let’s first vote in a Congress that’ll do the impossible, and pass bipartisan legislation once again!

Color me optimistic, but I think it could be done. But it would take a lot if give and take and no one getting g everything they want. But I think my ideas would satisfy most people on both sides. But we are divided thats for sure.

 

[Pommer]

They should learn English to be a citizen. If they just want to get a work Visa they wouldn't need to learn anything. To be a citizen they don't need to be completely fluent. Half of native Ameticans aren't fluent in English lol. But they should be conversational enough.

Wouldn’t we have to make English the Official Language of this nation of immigrants before making such requirements?
Let’s first have that conversation before we “require” stuff.

 

[Pommer]

Color me optimistic, but I think it could be done. But it would take a lot if give and take and no one getting g everything they want. But I think my ideas would satisfy most people on both sides. But we are divided thats for sure.

Oh, for sure, we’ve just been in the backwaters of politics and have come to think that “this is all that there is”; no, we’re still fully capable of coming together to solve our problems and tackle tough issues without making it out that “the other side” wants to “destroy the Country”. While it’s fun as rhetoric, it’s lousy as policy.

 

[wing2000]

We need a complete overhaul and not just amnesty.

The 2013 bill was expansive and included many provisions to increase border security. It died because the Tea Party cried "No Amnesty". The House Republicans always has an excuse when it comes to actually voting on comprehensive immigration reform.

A complete overhaul would mean a complete shut down at the border.

Republicans have yet to define what a "secure border" means in terms of policy. "Shut down" falls in the same bucket. Mexico is our largest trading partner. I assume Republicans would prefer we trade with Mexico over China.

Strict laws of immediate deportation if caught crossing illegally.

The asylum laws which the cartels are exploiting in recent years definitely need to be revised....but that requires cooperative, Congressional action.

A much more robust system to arrest those who have overstayed their visas and deport them.

Requires a lot more resources....again, Congress.

Along with verification laws for all employers where they must access the system and verify whether or not person has a work visa or a legal SSN before giving them a job. Severe penalties for hiring illegals. All of which would make sure people are here legally and working legally. They would have to be paid fair wages as legal workers.

Agreed.

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee for President is proposing to remove the estimated 11-15 million people living in the US without legal status. He's proposing to follow Eisenhower's "Operation Wetback" and kick out people who have been living here for decades.

 

[The Barbarian]

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee for President is proposing to remove the estimated 11-15 million people living in the US without legal status.

Which would be a devastating economic disaster. Most of those people are working at jobs that are needed in our economy. And there's a labor shortage.

Is there currently a labor shortage in the US?​

Job openings outnumbered unemployed people in the US from May 2021 to December 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In December 2023, there were 0.7 unemployed people per job opening.

Is there a labor shortage in the US?

In December 2023, there were 2.76 million more open jobs than unemployed people.

usafacts.org

 

[wing2000]

Which would be a devastating economic disaster. Most of those people are working at jobs that are needed in our economy. And there's a labor shortage.

Is there currently a labor shortage in the US?​

Job openings outnumbered unemployed people in the US from May 2021 to December 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In December 2023, there were 0.7 unemployed people per job opening.

Is there a labor shortage in the US?

In December 2023, there were 2.76 million more open jobs than unemployed people.

usafacts.org

Who knows if Trump is serious or merely trying to impress voters. If he were to try implementing it, it would be very disruptive and economically damaging to many communities:

Consider....

The Migration Policy Institute has estimates of the demographics of the country’s undocumented population as it stood in 2019. (The size of that population was about the same as it was in 2021.) From those estimates, we learn that:

• A third of undocumented immigrants are from places other than Mexico and Central America, including Asia.
• A fifth have been in the country for at least 20 years.
• A third have children who are U.S. citizens.
• Two-thirds — 6.8 million — were employed.
• Three in 10 own homes.

Some of the places where the undocumented population was estimated to be highest were:

• Los Angeles County, Calif.: 951,000
• Harris County, Tex.: 481,000
• Dallas County, Tex.: 293,000
• Cook County, Ill.: 257,000
• Orange County, Calif.: 236,000
• Queens County, N.Y.: 235,000

And then there is the cost of such a program:

In 2005, the Center for American Progress published a report looking at the cost of implementing a national program aimed at deporting every undocumented U.S. resident. That report estimated that the cost of such a program — targeting 10 million people — would run $41 billion a year for five years, assuming that a fifth of undocumented immigrants left of their own volition. That’s a total cost of about $321 billion in 2023 dollars. It’s more than a third of the entire budget request Biden submitted this year for the Defense Department.

https://wapo.st/3yA2bnP

 

[The Barbarian]

Who knows if Trump is serious or merely trying to impress voters. If he were to try implementing it, it would be very disruptive and economically damaging to many communities:

Today's winner.

 

[rjs330]

Which would be a devastating economic disaster. Most of those people are working at jobs that are needed in our economy. And there's a labor shortage.

Is there currently a labor shortage in the US?​

Job openings outnumbered unemployed people in the US from May 2021 to December 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In December 2023, there were 0.7 unemployed people per job opening.

Is there a labor shortage in the US?

In December 2023, there were 2.76 million more open jobs than unemployed people.

usafacts.org

I'd like to know why we have anyone on unemployment then. We shouldn't if this is the case.