Regarding the
birth of Jesus, I like a popular theory that has been put forth by Messianic Jews.
1. They know what time of the year Zacharias was performing Temple duties and the angel announced the conception of his son; John, the Baptist [
Luke 1:5-25].
There are a number of historical problems with that article. The first and most obvious is that during 2nd Temple times, the Jews did not have a fixed calendar. The first day of each month was determined when official spotters in Jerusalem saw the first sliver of a crescent of the new moon. The evening which followed was officially the first day of the month. The problem is that it could be
either the first or the second day after the astronomical new moon before the crescent of the waxing moon was observable, depending on a number of variables including local weather conditions. And since no record has been discovered that actually recorded on what dates based on some existing calendar the crescent new moons were observed throughout these months and years, there is no way to actually determine the precise date of Biblical events, although some events we can get within a day or two. The fixed calendar based on the Metonic cycle, which this article references for their calculations, was not adopted by the Jews until the mid-4th century A.D. by Hillel II. And it was not fully codified until the 12th century A.D. by Maimonides. So you simply cannot use the modern Jewish calendar to try to date Biblical events. New Testament Jews did not have a “calendar” because they did not know when each month would begin, they had to wait until they saw the crescent new moon.
A second problem is the calculation of the priestly courses. First, the courses did not begin the rotation anew each year as the article assumes. From the time the priestly service was reinstituted during 2nd Temple period, the courses served in order from Sabbath to Sabbath to Sabbath to Sabbath without regard to the dates on the calendar. (Jerusalem Talmud, Sukka 5:7-8) And secondly, while it is true that all 24 courses ministered during the annual pilgrimage festivals, the course whose rotation fell on that week continued to offer the regular daily sacrifices as well as all non-festival sacrifices, while all 24 courses participated in the festival sacrifices. "At three times during the year, all twenty-four priestly watches have equal status, in that all receive a share in the Temple service independent of the standard order of the watches ... The principal is that the priestly watch whose time is fixed during the Festival, sacrifices the daily offerings during the Festivals, as well as vow-offerings, free-will offerings, and all other communal offerings. And that watch sacrifices all of them even during the Festival, when other aspects of the service are shared by all the watches." (Mishnah Sukkah 5:7) So the festivals did not cause a disruption in the regular rotation, as the chart calculates. Very often students see the bit of information that all 24 courses served during the three pilgrimage festivals and they assume the regular courses paused during these weeks. But that’s not the case.
A third and rather glaring problem is that during the annual pilgrimage festivals of Passover, Pentecost, and Tabernacles, all male Jews were commanded by law to observe the festival
in Jerusalem with the required sacrifices and offerings each day which made up the “feasts” which they ate each of the days. If Jesus had been born during the feast of Tabernacles, there would have been plenty of "room in the inn” as all the Jews would have been in Jerusalem celebrating the feast. Josephus reports that every city and town and village throughout the land was “deserted” every year at Tabernacles, every family having gone up to the city to celebrate the feast. The article makes mention that all male Jews were required to be in Jerusalem for Tabernacles but then fails to apply that to the question of the situation at the time of Jesus’ birth and the fact that Bethlehem was so crowded that there wasn’t room for a pregnant woman to find shelter but had to resort to a stable. Not to mention the question of whether Herod would have been foolish enough to conduct a nation-wide census, which by Jewish law required every citizen to return to their ancestral tribal seat to be counted, which would disrupt the entire nation, shop keepers leaving their shops, farmers leaving their fields, shepherds leaving their flocks and herds, which would shift the entire population causing considerable hardship on the people. And to conduct a nation-wide census requiring the people to travel to their ancestral seats
during a festival when the law required them to go to Jerusalem, Herod would have had a riot on his hands. In fact, the Jews did riot when Rome conducted a census in A.D. 6 but did not bow to the dictates of Jewish laws and sensibilities but conducted the census according to the Roman method and there was in fact a riot and the city of Sepphoris, near Jesus’ hometown of Nazareth, was burned to the ground, giving rise to the Zealots who later led the nation into war that destroyed the Jewish nation, millions of Jews were killed, and Old Covenant practice came to an end. So there is a lot of history behind all these events and sets the stage across which the Gospel and the life of Jesus is played out.
And some of these things you can actually test. The service of the priests, for example. One of the historical “markers” we can use to date events is the fact that the Mishnah Tractate Taniit at 29a:10 records that the course of priests that was on duty when the Temple was burned by the Romans on Av 9 of the year A.D. 70 was the course of Jehoiarib, which was the 1st course. Now look at that chart on the website you linked, the “Rotation of Priestly and Levitical Courses.” According to that chart, the second week of Av when the Temple was burned, the 17th course of Hezir would have been serving if that chart is correct. But it wasn’t. It was the 1st course of Jehoiarib. So obviously the courses did not serve according to those “calculations.” And the same is true if the cycles started anew on the first of Tishri. Counting forward, the 2nd week of Av is the 43rd week so course 19 would have been on duty, not the 1st. So that chart simply cannot be correct. That's not how the courses historically served.
So to try to conclude this quickly, computer models calculating the courses backwards from 1st course 2nd week Av A.D. 70, back to the year before the birth of Jesus, 6 B.C., the course of Abijah to which Zacharias belonged would have been on duty from October 2 to October 9. If Elizabeth became pregnant shortly after Zacharias’ service was completed, say mid-October, then her 6th month would have fallen mid-March to mid-April. The traditional date for Jesus’ conception is March 25. Then counting forward again, John the Baptist would have been born mid-June to mid-July. The traditional date of his birth is June 24. Then counting forward from Jesus’ conception, Jesus would have been born in December, the traditional date is December 25 of the year 5 B.C. just a few months before the death of Herod in late March/early April of 4 B.C., after the lunar eclipse that occurred on March 12 the night after the golden eagle incident, but before the Passover that began on April 5 that year, when Archelaus stopped a riot in the Temple by slaughtering the rioters and cancelled the rest of Passover and sent everyone home. This was the situation that caused Joseph to choose to bypass Judea when they returned from Egypt and he took Mary and Jesus back to Nazareth.
Of course, there is a lot more history woven into all this, but those are the basic historical events that are briefly outlined in the Gospels, but still firmly anchor these events in their historical context.
In Christ,
Deborah
www.neverthirsty.org
But truly, I would love to see you face to face, to hold your hand and pray with you, that the Spirit of our great God and Savior Jesus would so fill your heart and mind with such peace that every fear and every worry that haunts your heart and mind would melt away like shadows before the noonday sun. And I would pray this with you, and this I pray to God for you even now, in this moment, in the blessed name of Jesus Christ. 
