Birthrates in the U.S. hit historic low in 2023, preliminary CDC data show

[ThatRobGuy]

Problem is, that doesn't actually get people to make more babies. As I pointed out, it actually does the opposite.

I think often times the "it's expensive to raise kids, were not financially ready yet" argument is one people who don't actually want kids use to get their parents off their back when they ask "when are you going to settle down and give us some grandbabies???" lol

Birth rates by income level would suggest that there's a weak correlation, and it's actually not in the direction people would expect if cost was a concern.

births per 1,000 women


Me & my GF are in that 150-199k household income bracket at the bottom of the graph, I got snipped back in my early 30's lol. Income was never an issue. For me the "having kids is the thing you're supposed to do" wasn't all that compelling to me. We don't dislike kids, we just don't want any. We both have the luxury of being able to work remotely most of the time, and when we decided to pick up and do the "nomad" life for 6 months and stay in random places, we were able to do so because there's nothing tying us down.

It's only matter of time before one of my idiot brothers has a "whoops" moment and has a kid. I can be the "cool uncle" who gives awesome birthday presents and helps them with their college fund, while having to do none of the puke and poop cleanup tasks.


The reality we don't need more people being made to keep the Social Security program in tact...
2 simple changes could be made. Raise the SS tax cap from $168k to $250k for the yearly income amount, and make it means based where social security benefits are paid out at their current amounts for people with net worths from $0 to $250k, and the amount you collect tapers down to 0 at a $500k net worth.

We need to start taking a pragmatic look at these things. Just because someone is older doesn't mean they should be immune from the same criticisms & evaluations we'd give a younger person who was in their same financial position.

If there was a 27 year old who wasn't working, but owned a home valued at $450k and had $600k in the bank, and said "I'm not working, so I need you to send me some money", our immediate response would be "uhhh what?!?! Dude, sell that house and downsize and cut out all the vacations and bus trips to Atlantic city" before we'd consider giving them a dime. But you replace 27 with 67, and then all of the sudden it becomes completely acceptable.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Is this the reasoning you're referring to?




Just want to check before I start destroying that post.

Yes, that was the reason.

I am amazed (and not in a good way) at how expensive necessities are now.

I live in one of the least expensive areas of the country.

Seen around town: Daycare for one four year old-$250 per week. Private swim lessons at the local fitness center-$35 per half hour. Parochial school tuition-$6600 per year. Babysitter (for a night out) $15 an hour.

Is it any wonder that families are smaller? Most young families require two incomes, but who could afford $500 a week for daycare for two?

I have a 3yo. IME, that's about right for swim lessons and maybe for the babysitter if you're just hiring a friend's teenage kid. But lol buddy you are way way low on daycare and private school. Our daycare is about $360/wk. And you don't pay per week, you sign up for an entire semester, and the wait list is 18+ months long. When we had a nanny, it was over $500/wk. Private schools are $17k for run-of-the-mill catholic schools and $20-30k+ for swankier private schools.

 

[iluvatar5150]

I think often times the "it's expensive to raise kids, were not financially ready yet" argument is one people who don't actually want kids use to get their parents off their back when they ask "when are you going to settle down and give us some grandbabies???" lol

eh... Sure, some people use that as an excuse, but IME, a lot of people use it because they genuinely believe it. And part of the reason they believe it is because they have high expectations for raising a kid and they see their potential earnings being greater in the future.

The logic isn't hard to figure out - if you get out of college and get a job for $60-70k, you're probably saving for a car and a house, paying off some college debt, paying rent, and if you're smart, funding your 401k. That occupies most of your money. But you can look 10 years down the road and see that, by the time you're in your mid 30's, you'll probably be making whatever the inflation-adjusted equivalent of $100-150k is, then why not wait a few years until things are substantially easier?

But if you're making $25/hr now and, in 10 years, you'll only be making $27/hr, then why wait? Things won't be appreciably better then, and you'll just be older and more tired.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Yes, that was the reason.



I have a 3yo. IME, that's about right for swim lessons and maybe for the babysitter if you're just hiring a friend's teenage kid. But lol buddy you are way way low on daycare and private school. Our daycare is about $360/wk. And you don't pay per week, you sign up for an entire semester, and the wait list is 18+ months long. When we had a nanny, it was over $500/wk. Private schools are $17k for run-of-the-mill catholic schools and $20-30k+ for swankier private schools.

And you sort of hit on your own excuse here...

Are the poor poor because they have too many children?

I understand that the US calculates middle class by median incomes....but that's not really what "middle class" means.

Middle class is essentially the economic between "struggling to get by" and "having enough wealth to not worry about money ever again".

A position where I'd say....essentially, with some job security and good decisions, a person need not work their entire lives....but can at least retire comfortably at mid 50s or early 60s.

I'd also say, that depending upon where you live and your lifestyle....the average income for a single person to "get by" as a middle class worker is probably 80k-120k. Add a spouse to raise 2 kids to that income and you're basically back in poverty. That's why we see the dual income no kids where a couple knows that adding a child to the equation puts them in a situation where they cannot afford a house, two cars, insurance, utilities, etc etc etc.

 

[iluvatar5150]

And you sort of hit on your own excuse here...

Are the poor poor because they have too many children?

No, as far as I’m aware, that’s not how the causality works. Rather, as education and job prospects grow, people delay having children and ultimately have fewer of them.

This is not an American phenomenon or even a western phenomenon. It seems to be as close to a universally human phenomenon as just about anything.

 

[Pommer]

Private schools are $17k for run-of-the-mill catholic schools and $20-30k+ for swankier private schools.

Yes, it turns out that people will spend ooodles for schools to teach their children that “ain’t nothing ‘changing’.”

 

[Ignatius the Kiwi]

The West is literally a dying civilisation.

 

[Pommer]

No, as far as I’m aware, that’s not how the causality works. Rather, as education and job prospects grow, people delay having children and ultimately have fewer of them.

This is not an American phenomenon or even a western phenomenon. It seems to be as close to a universally human phenomenon as just about anything.

While it is true that the USA’s birthrate has dropped, when I poked my head out the very first time the world’s population was 5,000,000,000 less than today. Somebody’s having kids.

 

[Pommer]

The West is literally a dying civilisation.

I see it more as the last embers of the enlightenment going out, but I’m a lefty and biased towards seeing it that way.

 

[Ignatius the Kiwi]

I see it more as the last embers of the enlightenment going out, but I’m a lefty and biased towards seeing it that way.

Or rather this is a fulfillment of the enlightenment and the complete detachment from meaning and the consequence of striving towards individualism.

 

[Pommer]

Or rather this is a fulfillment of the enlightenment and the complete detachment from meaning and the consequence of striving towards individualism.

Yes, words only allow us to define them because when it’s tried the other-way-‘round, it tends to get “chaotic”.

 

[iluvatar5150]

While it is true that the USA’s birthrate has dropped, when I poked my head out the very first time the world’s population was 5,000,000,000 less than today. Somebody’s having kids.

Yeah, the poor countries. The rich ones are all below replacement levels.

 

[wing2000]

No, as far as I’m aware, that’s not how the causality works. Rather, as education and job prospects grow, people delay having children and ultimately have fewer of them.

This is not an American phenomenon or even a western phenomenon. It seems to be as close to a universally human phenomenon as just about anything.

Agreed, Asian countries such as China are facing the same challenges.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Yeah, the poor countries. The rich ones are all below replacement levels.

Sorry...I know this will be viewed as "un-PC" by some...but remember the movie Idiocracy? lol

Where that one rich smart couple is trying and trying and can't have a baby, and "Clevon" and his offspring all breed like rabbits and pump out 5 generations in short order?

 

[iluvatar5150]

Sorry...I know this will be viewed as "un-PC" by some...but remember the movie Idiocracy? lol

Where that one rich smart couple is trying and trying and can't have a baby, and "Clevon" and his offspring all breed like rabbits and pump out 5 generations in short order?

I never saw it. I've only seen the memes.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I never saw it. I've only seen the memes.

 

[Ana the Ist]

No, as far as I’m aware, that’s not how the causality works. Rather, as education and job prospects grow

Education and job prospects?

We have people graduating with a masters and learning nobody is interested in hiring them.

This is not an American phenomenon or even a western phenomenon.

I'd like to tell you this single-factor variable works....but it doesn't.

Go check N Korea's per capita income and average birthrate. 80% below poverty. 1.8 children. They are dirt poor and wayyy below average poverty rates worldwide....and under replacement birth rates.

If you want more examples, I'll gladly hand them out.

 

[iluvatar5150]

If you want more examples, I'll gladly hand them out.

Have at it.

 

[wing2000]

Go check N Korea's per capita income and average birthrate. 80% below poverty. 1.8 children. They are dirt poor and wayyy below average poverty rates worldwide....and under replacement birth rates.

Suggest you look at a country with a similar economic and poltical system.

S. Korea has the lowest birthrate of any country in the world.

The average number of expected babies for a South Korean woman during her reproductive life fell to a record low of 0.72 from 0.78 in 2022, data from Statistics Korea showed on Wednesday.

South Korea's demographic crisis has become the top risk to economic growth and the social welfare system, with the country's population of 51 million on track to halve by the end of this century.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-koreas-fertility-rate-dropped-fresh-record-low-2023-2024-02-28/

 

[FireDragon76]

Suggest you look at a country with a similar economic and poltical system.

S. Korea has the lowest birthrate of any country in the world.

The average number of expected babies for a South Korean woman during her reproductive life fell to a record low of 0.72 from 0.78 in 2022, data from Statistics Korea showed on Wednesday.

South Korea's demographic crisis has become the top risk to economic growth and the social welfare system, with the country's population of 51 million on track to halve by the end of this century.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-koreas-fertility-rate-dropped-fresh-record-low-2023-2024-02-28/

South Korea's economy can be brutal. They've had to endure the worst aspects of neoliberalism.