Will Trump's resounding and definitive win cause Democrats to reflect?

[probinson]

So the results are in. Trump not only won the election, but he completely decimated Harris. This is one of the most telling maps that the NYT provides. The red arrows represent shifts in margin from the 2020 vote toward Trump, and the blue arrows represent shift toward Harris. The longer the arrow, the bigger the shift.

John King on CNN and "The Magic Wall" would show where Trump was outperforming his 2020 results by at least 3%. Last I saw, in over 1,000 counties nationwide, Trump did 3% or more better than in 2020. For Harris, the number was just 58 counties.

Then let's consider that Ann Selzer shared poll results for Iowa just 3 days ago that had Trump losing Iowa by 3 points. As of this posting, Trump is up 13 points in Iowa, meaning that the poll was off by 16 points. Just a month ago, Nate Silver said that people were "huffing Twitter vibes" if they thought Trump would win Florida by 8 points or more.

Trump actually won Florida by 13 points.

Trump is likely going to sweep ALL of the battleground states. Trump is likely going to win the popular vote. Trump will likely end up with 312 electoral votes.

Then consider not only did Trump win, but Republicans also took the Senate. As of this posting, they have flipped 3 seats, giving them a majority of 52 seats. It's still too early to know how the House races will play out, but it's quite plausible that Republicans not only maintain control of the house, but could expand their majority further there as well.

There was no "red mirage" or "blue shift". At no point during the counting did it ever look like Harris would win.

Given all of the above, it's hard to interpret these election results as anything less than a complete repudiation of the Democrat party. I have to wonder if this will cause some deep reflection in the Democrat party, or if they'll dig their heels in further.

The thing is, this is not all that shocking to me. I've been saying since Harris was instilled as the Democratic candidate that all of the "momentum" she had was just an illusion. While Harris may have provided die-hard Democrats with a new hope, she failed spectacularly at appealing to moderates and independents who saw through all the fluff the Democrats and the media tried to hype. How in the world Democrats convinced themselves that a candidate that couldn't make it through the first round of primaries in 2019 and was one of the most unpopular VPs of all time could suddenly take the torch and carry it across the finish line is beyond me.

Now, Democrats have to come to terms with the reality that they chose to run such a poor candidate that she resoundingly lost to a convicted felon. Will they really ask themselves hard questions about how they got here, or will they continue to blame the electorate for being too stupid to vote as they should have?

 

[Nithavela]

I think they're too busy celebrating the first trans person in congress to get out of denial. They have a couple years, though.

 

[Fantine]

Of course we will reflect. What I've been hearing is that it was the effect of inflation and working-class people suffering its aftereffects.

Apparently Great Britain switched to the Labour Party for the same reasons, but they were lucky, because it was the conservatives who had been in control and got the boot.

It's easy, I guess, to ignore the glaring, overwhelming, 110% true fact that inflation occurred all over the world, due to the end of the pandemic, supply chain issues, pent up demand, etc., etc. when some megalomanical demagogue says "It's Biden and Harris' fault." It wasn't. Their administration got inflation under control much more quickly---and I don't know how an anti-union, anti-minimum wage, anti-employee party is going to help those working class people.

Only 32% of the people thought the economy was going in the right direction. I'm not among them. Pulling out of an economic crisis that affected 100% of the world is going in the right direction. And I didn't see how throwing my hopes with a crass, vulgar, hate-filled, candidate whose speeches included sexually deviant pantomimes would help.

They will suffer for their foolishness. You will regret your terrible decision. Hopefully, there will be enough of a democracy left--or even enough of a planet left--for us to make a change.

The entire world is terrified. One of my children lives in Asia, and they are terrified that Trump will pull bases out of Japan, S. Korea, etc., allowing China to move on Taiwan, and Russia to continue its imperialistic rampages in Europe.

So will we still have a world in four years, when Netanyahu goes commando on Lebanon and Iran, China moves on Taiwan, Russia heads for Poland and beyond?

I am in my 70's. I have always worked to make our country a better place, and I may not be alive to see the upcoming devastation, especially if Medicare is tanked. I pray for my family and even for those whose shortsightedensss brought this devastation upon us.

Hindsight is 20-20. You will regret your decision 100 times over.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

I certainly hope so.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Of course we will reflect. What I've been hearing is that it was the effect of inflation and working-class people suffering its aftereffects.

Apparently Great Britain switched to the Labour Party for the same reasons, but they were lucky, because it was the conservatives who had been in control and got the boot.

It's easy, I guess, to ignore the glaring, overwhelming, 110% true fact that inflation occurred all over the world, due to the end of the pandemic, supply chain issues, pent up demand, etc., etc. when some megalomanical demagogue says "It's Biden and Harris' fault." It wasn't. Their administration got inflation under control much more quickly---and I don't know how an anti-union, anti-minimum wage, anti-employee party is going to help those working class people.

Only 32% of the people thought the economy was going in the right direction. I'm not among them. Pulling out of an economic crisis that affected 100% of the world is going in the right direction. And I didn't see how throwing my hopes with a crass, vulgar, hate-filled, candidate whose speeches included sexually deviant pantomimes would help.

They will suffer for their foolishness. You will regret your terrible decision. Hopefully, there will be enough of a democracy left--or even enough of a planet left--for us to make a change.

The entire world is terrified. One of my children lives in Asia, and they are terrified that Trump will pull bases out of Japan, S. Korea, etc., allowing China to move on Taiwan, and Russia to continue its imperialistic rampages in Europe.

So will we still have a world in four years, when Netanyahu goes commando on Lebanon and Iran, China moves on Taiwan, Russia heads for Poland and beyond?

I am in my 70's. I have always worked to make our country a better place, and I may not be alive to see the upcoming devastation, especially if Medicare is tanked. I pray for my family and even for those whose shortsightedensss brought this devastation upon us.

Hindsight is 20-20. You will regret your decision 100 times over.

He is not in office for a second time yet we shell see in about 48 months or so whether it is as bad as you all predict.

 

[chevyontheriver]

I think they're too busy celebrating the first trans person in congress to get out of denial. They have a couple years, though.

To get a few more similar candidates in the remaining blue enclaves to run and win their enclaves? As if to prove the vitality of the Democratic Party?

The Democrats could have picked a moderate and smoked Trump absolutely this year. But their woke insiders went for broke, somehow thinking they couldn't lose with Komrade Kamala. The only reason Trump won in 2016 was that Hillary was just as bad as Kamala. AOC for president in 2028?

The Republicans haven't picked candidates very well either. Just not as stellar bad as the Democrats.

 

[probinson]

Of course we will reflect. What I've been hearing is that it was the effect of inflation and working-class people suffering its aftereffects.

So if this post is a harbinger of what to expect from the Democrats' reflection, it seems likely that Democrats are going to ignore the fact that their instilled candidate never really had a chance, and all of the media assists and horribly wrong polling weren't enough to propel them to victory.

 

[chevyontheriver]

So the results are in. Trump not only won the election, but he completely decimated Harris. This is one of the most telling maps that the NYT provides. The red arrows represent shifts in margin from the 2020 vote toward Trump, and the blue arrows represent shift toward Harris. The longer the arrow, the bigger the shift.

View attachment 356754

John King on CNN and "The Magic Wall" would show where Trump was outperforming his 2020 results by at least 3%. Last I saw, in over 1,000 counties nationwide, Trump did 3% or more better than in 2020. For Harris, the number was just 58 counties.

Then let's consider that Ann Selzer shared poll results for Iowa just 3 days ago that had Trump losing Iowa by 3 points. As of this posting, Trump is up 13 points in Iowa, meaning that the poll was off by 16 points. Just a month ago, Nate Silver said that people were "huffing Twitter vibes" if they thought Trump would win Florida by 8 points or more.

View attachment 356755

Trump actually won Florida by 13 points.

Trump is likely going to sweep ALL of the battleground states. Trump is likely going to win the popular vote. Trump will likely end up with 312 electoral votes.

Then consider not only did Trump win, but Republicans also took the Senate. As of this posting, they have flipped 3 seats, giving them a majority of 52 seats. It's still too early to know how the House races will play out, but it's quite plausible that Republicans not only maintain control of the house, but could expand their majority further there as well.

There was no "red mirage" or "blue shift". At no point during the counting did it ever look like Harris would win.

Given all of the above, it's hard to interpret these election results as anything less than a complete repudiation of the Democrat party. I have to wonder if this will cause some deep reflection in the Democrat party, or if they'll dig their heels in further.

The thing is, this is not all that shocking to me. I've been saying since Harris was instilled as the Democratic candidate that all of the "momentum" she had was just an illusion. While Harris may have provided die-hard Democrats with a new hope, she failed spectacularly at appealing to moderates and independents who saw through all the fluff the Democrats and the media tried to hype. How in the world Democrats convinced themselves that a candidate that couldn't make it through the first round of primaries in 2019 and was one of the most unpopular VPs of all time could suddenly take the torch and carry it across the finish line is beyond me.

Now, Democrats have to come to terms with the reality that they chose to run such a poor candidate that she resoundingly lost to a convicted felon. Will they really ask themselves hard questions about how they got here, or will they continue to blame the electorate for being too stupid to vote as they should have?

I want to see the followup trends map when all the states have reported. The map is amazing.

 

[chevyontheriver]

So if this post is a harbinger of what to expect from the Democrats' reflection, it seems likely that Democrats are going to ignore the fact that their instilled candidate never really had a chance, and all of the media assists and horribly wrong polling weren't enough to propel them to victory.

I suspect many of them are thinking that Kamala didn't promote her abortion position quite enough. If only she had pushed that a wee bit harder she would have won.

 

[BCP1928]

LGBTs will have to go back in the closet for a while, and the liberal elites who engineered this failure should get in there with them. The only hope for the Democrats is to become the party of a working class undivided by sex and race issues.

 

[Nithavela]

To get a few more similar candidates in the remaining blue enclaves to run and win their enclaves? As if to prove the vitality of the Democratic Party?

The Democrats could have picked a moderate and smoked Trump absolutely this year. But their woke insiders went for broke, somehow thinking they couldn't lose with Komrade Kamala. The only reason Trump won in 2016 was that Hillary was just as bad as Kamala. AOC for president in 2028?

The Republicans haven't picked candidates very well either. Just not as stellar bad as the Democrats.

The republicans didn't really have any choice besides Trump. He's way too popular with their base to have any other candidate.

 

[dogs4thewin]

LGBTs will have to go back in the closet for a while, and the liberal elites who engineered this failure should get in there with them. The only hope for the Democrats is to become the party of a working class undivided by sex and race issues.

Why will they need to go back in the closet? Most republicans have no issue with them as long as they do not push the issue.

 

[dogs4thewin]

The republicans didn't really have any choice besides Trump. He's way too popular with their base to have any other candidate.

Clearly he was more popular than Harris among others as well as even with record turnout he is winning the popular vote and outpreforming in blue areas For example she barely won MN which is where her VP was the governor and he was ahead there at one point.

 

[probinson]

The republicans didn't really have any choice besides Trump. He's way too popular with their base to have any other candidate.

On the plus side (for those of us conservative-leaning moderates that don't care for Trump), Trump can't run again.

 

[chevyontheriver]

The only hope for the Democrats is to become the party of a working class undivided by sex and race issues.

I think that ship has sailed a LONG time ago. Best hope for the working class is a new party.

 

[Nithavela]

On the plus side (for those of us conservative-leaning moderates that don't care for Trump), Trump can't run again.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/18/trump-at-nra-convention-floats-a-three-term-presidency-00158786

Rules lol

 

[Fantine]

So if this post is a harbinger of what to expect from the Democrats' reflection, it seems likely that Democrats are going to ignore the fact that their instilled candidate never really had a chance, and all of the media assists and horribly wrong polling weren't enough to propel them to victory.

It had nothing to do with the candidate. It had to do with a megalomaniac convincing low-information voters that inflation was caused by Biden--not that it was a global event that Biden handled better. I don't blame them for being unhappy with inflation--but I blame them for believing someone whose words are as fake as his tan, his "university," his overpriced digital cards, and most of all, his "Bible."

When I have a problem, I look for a real solution, the best solution. I study. I discuss. I reflect. I use my sound judgment of character, honed through 70 years of living, to scope out charlatans.

 

[probinson]

Clearly he was more popular than Harris among others as well as even with record turnout he is winning the popular vote and outpreforming in blue areas For example she barely won MN which is where her VP was the governor and he was ahead there at one point.

Harris is currently severely underperforming Biden in her home state of California. Biden took California by 29 points in 2020. As of this posting (with roughly 54% of the vote in), Harris is leading California by 17 points, 12 points less than Biden.

California!

 

[dogs4thewin]

It had nothing to do with the candidate. It had to do with a brainwashing megalomaniac convincing low-information voters that inflation was caused by Biden--not that it was a global event that Biden handled better. I don't blame them for being unhappy with inflation--but I blame them for believing someone whose words are as fake as his tan, his "university," his overpriced digital cards, and most of all, his "Bible."

When I have a problem, I look for a real solution, the best solution. I study. I discuss. I reflect. I don't listen to a demagogue whose persona relays neon lights saying "phony."

yet it is looking like Trump will run the table in the swing states and even outpreforms Harris in states she ended up winning ( she did not do as well as thought/dems usually do in those areas which tells me that it had SOMETHING to do with who was running.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Harris is currently severely underperforming Biden in her home state of California. Biden took California by 29 points in 2020. As of this posting (with roughly 54% of the vote in), Harris is leading California by 17 points, 12 points less than Biden.

California!

that says something MN is another example Harris BARELY won and yet her VP was the governor there.