The Blue State Family Exodus: Families Are Migrating to Red and Purple States

[Michie]

• Parents are not generally moving towards states with the preferred family policies of progressives. They are moving out of these states.
• Today, the family-friendly policies and cultural distinctives that matter most for parents are more likely to be found in red (and purple) states, not in blue states.
• Blue states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020 lost 213,000 families in 2021 and 2022 (a 0.7% net decline), while red states that voted for President Trump in both elections gained 181,000 families (a 0.6% net gain).

You would think that Minnesota is a mecca for families, judging by the adulatory press coverage that Democratic Gov. Tim Walz’s family policy record in the state has received from liberal professors and pundits. Celebrating the vice presidential nominee’s moves to expand the child tax credit for poor families, advance paid family leave, and provide universal school lunch in the state, Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell wrote these family policies provide “further evidence that one major party cares about children and families; and the other does not.” She added: “Democrats should adopt a new agenda: Make America Minnesota Already” (MAMA). And fair’s fair: Gov. Walz did implement some policies that we think helped Minnesota families.

But Rampell might be surprised to learn that Minnesota isn’t a magnet for families with children: quite the opposite, in fact. Although a number of Minnesota’s progressive family policies are popular in polls of parents, when it comes to family policy, broadly understood, the revealed preferences of parents often diverge from their stated preferences for parts of the “MAMA”-state agenda. More families with children moved out of Minnesota in 2021 and 2022 than moved into the state, according to our analysis of the American Community Survey. In fact, Minnesota ranked in the worst third for family migration, as one of 18 states in the nation that saw more families leave than move into the state.

Minnesota is no outlier. Parents are not generally moving towards states with the preferred family policies of progressives. They are moving out of these states, including Democratic states, like New York, California, Massachusetts, and Oregon, all well known for their liberal family policies. Blue states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020 lost 213,000 families with children in 2021 and 2022 (a 0.7% net decline), while red states that voted for President Trump in both elections gained 181,000 families (a 0.6% net gain). Meanwhile, purple states that flipped between the two parties in the last presidential elections gained 38,000 families (a 0.4% gain).1

Top 15 States that Have Lost the Most Families (Net Emigration Rate, 2021-2022)


Continued below.

The Blue State Family Exodus: Families Are Migrating to Red and Purple States

Parents are not generally moving towards states with the preferred family policies of progressives. They are moving out of these states, including Democratic states, like New York, California, Massachusetts, and Oregon, all well known for their liberal family policies. Blue states that voted for...

ifstudies.org

 

[PloverWing]

This is an interesting starting point for discussion, but I want a lot more information before drawing any conclusions.

1. The designation of states as Republican or Democrat in the article is based on the presidential votes in the last two elections, but many of the policies the article talks about are state-level or local-level policies, not federal: universally free school lunches, school choice, and state tax rates, for example. Tell me who the migrating families voted for in the state and local elections -- governor, state legislature, mayor, school board.

2. There are many reasons why a family might move from one area to another. Sure, state laws and tax rates. But also climate, population density, recreational stuff nearby (skiing, beaches), intellectual stuff nearby (universities, art centers), where my extended family lives, or where my company just opened a new branch office. I want to see a survey of these families that asks why they moved, and then I'll have better information.

 

[Cosmic Charlie]

Minnesota is a bad example.

its well known that the climate is a huge factor in keeping people away Above all other factors.

 

[PloverWing]

Oops, I have just realized that this is OBOB-Politics. I apologize for intruding.

 

[Michie]

Oops, I have just realized that this is OBOB-Politics. I apologize for intruding.

You are always welcome in OBOB. It’s just when people come in and try to teach and debate Catholicism that’s the problem.