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How many undocumented immigrants are here in the U.S., actually?

Fantine

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I mean, I know that the numbers that come out of the Republican candidate's mouth are wildly exaggerated, real whoppers, but I wonder exactly how wildly inaccurate they are.

There have been some checks, including from the Dept. of Homeland Security. But I think this one's pretty good:

A November 2023 report by Pew Research Center estimated that "the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States reached 10.5 million in 2021." But that figure includes people who have lived in the U.S. for years, even decades before Biden became president.
The Customs and Border Patrol encounters data shows that from February 2021, Biden’s first full month as president, to January 2024, the month with the latest available data, immigration officials recorded nearly 8.8 million encounters nationwide.
There also have been more than 3.6 million removals, returns and expulsions from February 2021, Biden’s first month in office, to September 2023, based on Department of Homeland Security estimates. So that would be 5.2 million remaining a three year period, a more realistic estimate.
Why do the wild exaggerations seem unrealistic to me? Being a Catholic in the South, if the problem is as huge as is being alleged, my church would be absolutely swamped with immigrants, and the number of Hispanic parishioners seems relatively stable.

We do have panhandlers on street corners, far more than we would expect. Some try humor--one has a sign saying "need rolling papers." And yet, I have never seen a panhandler who appears to be Hispanic or a person of color. (Do you think they're the "enemies" the former president is talking about?)
 
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Josheb

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How many undocumented immigrants are here in the US, actually?
No one knows.

They are..................... "undocumented."

So, let's first take a look at how the politics have already influenced the conversation because the problem is not whether a person immigrating to the US is "documented" or not. The problem is that they have crossed the border and entered the country illegally, or outside of the specified laws of this country that govern how, when, and where a person can do so. We have documentation of one kind or another on most of them.


The first year more than a million people immigrated into America outside the tenets of our laws was..... 1956! This problem has been going on for a long time. In the 1060s immigration laws were overhauled but the changes didn't address all of the problem. By the time Reagan left 3-4 million immigrants known to be illegally residing in the country were granted amnesty. About twice that many were granted amnesty before Clinton left office. Each time modest changes in immigration laws were made but none were significant, or sufficient enough to stop the problem. Obama, not Trump, was the first to build a wall, incarcerate border crossers, and separate families (under the auspices of caring for the children). Amnesty was again granted. Trump cut illegal border crossings about in half; some months illegals crossings were very low, comparatively, but the overall number of crossings during his entire presidency were about half of his predecessor. When Biden took office the numbers nearly tripled! A marked decrease occurred during the early summer due to new executive orders but those decreases never went below pre-Biden numbers. The number of crossings, removals, and cumulative total for 2021 is meaningless because it is what has happened since then that needs to be addressed. It is estimates 8 million people have entered the US with some form of governmental record since Biden took office, and another 2 million for which there is no documentation. Those are the documented undocumented.

No one has a clue how many people have entered the country unnoticed.

That is a very real problem.

Much of this "X number entered this month/year" is propaganda. So too is the fearmongering of criminals, terrorists, and diseased. Those are legitimate concerns, but they constitute a small portion of all immigrants (at least as far as we know) and focusing on that portion serves as a red herring, a distraction from the reality: The cumulative total of people entering the country illegally is in the tens of millions of people. Appeals to humane concerns, hospitality, and asylum are, likewise propaganda. Perhaps there is a legitimate need to leave one's country of origin and yes, we should treat everyone, including criminals, humanely but this too obfuscates the current reality and the problem it presents: As much as 15% of the country's current population could be here illegally, but no one knows the exact number.* The same holds true for appeals to "immigration reform." Immigration reform is not border security. It is not bad immigration policy and law that has prompted as many as 45 million people to come our way and cross our border since the turn of this century. For a law-abiding country the number is immaterial. It is not okay that 1000, 100, or 10 people cross the border illegally. No border can be controlled 100% but that has nothing to do with the fact people become criminals the instant they violate our laws (one of which requires any asylum seeker to apply for asylum in the first country they enter).













* A Google search shows several sources reporting only 3-4% of the population is here illegally, but the current total US population is 345 million, the 2000 population was 280 million, and 45 million are estimated to have entered the country since 2000. That constitutes 13% of the current population, and 16% of the Y2K population. Lest anyone think I've been too legalistic or otherwise rigid... I've sponsored four people to come to this country. Three of the four have become citizens and upstanding members of their community. The other one became an alcoholic (or was so before he arrived) and will not hold a job, support his family, or enter rehab.

.
 
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Laodicean60

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"How many undocumented immigrants are here in the U.S., actually?" I think Josheb answered this question.

The one that worries me is how many terrorists are in the country.
 
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ozso

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I mean, I know that the numbers that come out of the Republican candidate's mouth are wildly exaggerated, real whoppers, but I wonder exactly how wildly inaccurate they are.

There have been some checks, including from the Dept. of Homeland Security. But I think this one's pretty good:


Why do the wild exaggerations seem unrealistic to me? Being a Catholic in the South, if the problem is as huge as is being alleged, my church would be absolutely swamped with immigrants, and the number of Hispanic parishioners seems relatively stable.
I don't know where you live in the south, but take a trip to Southern California and have a look around.
We do have panhandlers on street corners, far more than we would expect. Some try humor--one has a sign saying "need rolling papers." And yet, I have never seen a panhandler who appears to be Hispanic or a person of color. (Do you think they're the "enemies" the former president is talking about?)
They're a product of both Bidenomics and all the cheap illegal drugs being brought in over the border. Where I live, homeless Americans have increased significantly over the last four years.
 
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ozso

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It's funny to me how on one hand it's claimed there haven't been millions of extra illegal aliens coming in over the last four years, and on the other hand they're saying there's no way Trump is going to be able to manage deporting so many millions of illegal aliens.
 
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Diamond72

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Fantine

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Fantine

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"How many undocumented immigrants are here in the U.S., actually?" I think Josheb answered this question.

The one that worries me is how many terrorists are in the country.
There are domestic terrorists as well, homegrown, like the proud boys.
 
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Laodicean60

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There are domestic terrorists as well, homegrown, like the proud boys.
I'm not talking about conservatives and Vets but it's still unknown how many terrorists from overseas might want to cause another 9/11 event.
 
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