German Election today

[mindlight]

I just voted in the German election 2025. The stakes are quite big right now with concerns about the economy, migration, the Ukraine war, and Donald Trump looming large.

How will this election affect Europe's response to Trump and Putin?
What are its major impacts likely to be?

German election: Merz's CDU wins election, AfD second – DW – 02/24/2025

Germany's electoral authority declared the CDU/CSU conservative bloc as the winner in preliminary results. Conservative leader Friedrich Merz urged Europe to distance itself from the US.

www.dw.com

 

[mindlight]

An immediate implication is that Germany is no longer interested in pandering to America. This is a shame as the Atlantic alliance has been the bedrock of global security for the last 7 decades. It raises immense risks for the future

Germany's Friedrich Merz signals seismic shift in Europe-US relations

Friedrich Merz heralds a new era for Europe without the US as a key partner, writes Europe editor Katya Adler.

www.bbc.com

 

[mindlight]

China is deepening its relationship with the EU and making friendly noises following Trump's visit. They see an opportunity here to forge a new world order in which the centrality of the USA is no longer obvious.

Why China wants EU to be involved in Ukraine peace talks – DW – 02/22/2025

As the US pursues direct talks with Russia on the Ukraine war, China has indicated that it wants the European Union to have a seat at the negotiating table.

www.dw.com

 

[RamiC]

I live in a strongly FPTP democracy. I am not sure what is expected to happen with negotiations for a coalition. Is Friedrich Merz under any obligation or commitment to partner with any particular other party? Is he free to talk to all of them and just pick his favourite? Will the news follow who is saying what in the negotiations for a coalition, or is it all done in private until he has a deal?

German election results live: Friedrich Merz calls for ‘independence’ from US after election win

 

[Gene2memE]

I don't think a China pivot is on the cards - Europe got burned by reliance on one dictatorial power rather recently.

I suspect that the emphasis will initially be on expanding relationships with other, more stable, trading partners. Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, New Zealand (and even the UK).

Secondary moves would be to expand bilateral relations with ASEAN states, and some of the more stable (and less repressive) MENA states.

 

[High Fidelity]

It’s a bold statement to step back from the US, but I think it’s for the best.

The US is supposed to be an ally, and in the first major European conflict since WW2, it’s trying to sell the rug from beneath Ukraine’s feet.

It’s clear that the US doesn’t care about Europe or global stability under the current administration, it’s only interested in what can be done for the US and those in power.

No issue at all with them choosing a more isolationist approach, but that’s not entirely true when their isolationism will likely only extend to helping others, and less so about getting what it wants.

This will be an interesting moment for the UK as it’s the perfect opportunity to get a seat back in the economic partnership of the EU without the freedom of movement and other baggage. Europe needs to make better use of the economies on its doorstep.

 

[RamiC]

This will be an interesting moment for the UK as it’s the perfect opportunity to get a seat back in the economic partnership of the EU without the freedom of movement and other baggage. Europe needs to make better use of the economies on its doorstep.

UK Speaking - I would like this, and all records show the PM would too. Good luck persuading our own far right.

 

[mindlight]

I live in a strongly FPTP democracy. I am not sure what is expected to happen with negotiations for a coalition. Is Friedrich Merz under any obligation or commitment to partner with any particular other party? Is he free to talk to all of them and just pick his favourite? Will the news follow who is saying what in the negotiations for a coalition, or is it all done in private until he has a deal?

German election results live: Friedrich Merz calls for ‘independence’ from US after election win

Officially Scholz is still the Chancellor of Germany so not like the UK where the removal vans turn up at 10 Downing Street the moment the result is declared. It is the Bundestag that must now meet to select a chancellor. This is usually the largest party plus coalition partners. Merz's CDU is the largest party but he must form a coalition before he can move into the German Chancellory. It took months last time. But there is an urgency this time round to get a functioning government in place and to start to deal with the issues that the voters voted on.

 

[mindlight]

I don't think a China pivot is on the cards - Europe got burned by reliance on one dictatorial power rather recently.

I suspect that the emphasis will initially be on expanding relationships with other, more stable, trading partners. Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, New Zealand (and even the UK).

Secondary moves would be to expand bilateral relations with ASEAN states, and some of the more stable (and less repressive) MENA states.

Real Politik in a new multipolar order cannot avoid trading with autocracies but strategically speaking must avoid overdependencies. There is also scope to extend relations with Commonwealth countries through improved relations with them and the UK. A fuller trade deal with the UK is in the EUs interest as is closer security links. But the security integration was already happening under Scholz and there is cross party support for significant increases in lethality and effectiveness of the German armed forces.

 

[mindlight]

It’s a bold statement to step back from the US, but I think it’s for the best.

The US is supposed to be an ally, and in the first major European conflict since WW2, it’s trying to sell the rug from beneath Ukraine’s feet.

It’s clear that the US doesn’t care about Europe or global stability under the current administration, it’s only interested in what can be done for the US and those in power.

No issue at all with them choosing a more isolationist approach, but that’s not entirely true when their isolationism will likely only extend to helping others, and less so about getting what it wants.

This will be an interesting moment for the UK as it’s the perfect opportunity to get a seat back in the economic partnership of the EU without the freedom of movement and other baggage. Europe needs to make better use of the economies on its doorstep.

I am hopeful that the time is indeed right for restoring links between EU and the UK and I think Merz is very sympathetic to UK concerns about migration so that will be less of an obstacle to a deal - even if freedom of movement remains off the table.

This movement is worrying as basically world democracy is now a divided kingdom and that does not bode well for the freedom agenda. Also, there are major transitional vulnerabilities in redefining the world as multipolar. This could be an intensely unstable time. There is an urgency to establish a coalition as soon as possible in Germany but the differences between the parties are very profound. A worrying aspect of this election is the size of the vote for the anti-immigrant/anti-EU AFD which is wrong on its two main policies and populated by unhinged conspiracy nuts. Also, the rise of Die Linke (The Communists) is deeply disturbing - how could people be so stupid?

The rise of the idiots on both extremes has a lot to do with dissatisfaction with the way the established parties have failed to address the people's concerns and marginalized certain aspects of the debate. The new government needs wisdom to neutralize parties that feed off dissent but offer no viable alternatives.

 

[RamiC]

Officially Scholz is still the Chancellor of Germany so not like the UK where the removal vans turn up at 10 Downing Street the moment the result is declared. It is the Bundestag that must now meet to select a chancellor. This is usually the largest party plus coalition partners. Merz's CDU is the largest party but he must form a coalition before he can move into the German Chancellory. It took months last time. But there is an urgency this time round to get a functioning government in place and to start to deal with the issues that the voters voted on.

Thanks, I just noticed the small print in your sig .

Can anyone else try to form a coalition faster than him, and therefore get power instead?

Can the AdF end up in power by getting to an agreement with someone ahead of the CDU, since there is a time pressure?

 

[mindlight]

Thanks, I just noticed the small print in your sig .

Can anyone else try to form a coalition faster than him, and therefore get power instead?

Can the AdF end up in power by getting to an agreement with someone ahead of the CDU, since there is a time pressure?

The only possible numerical combinations are CDU-SPD or CDU-AFD. The second is politically infeasible. No left-wing combination would have the votes unless they ally with the AFD to exclude the CDU. That is politically impossible. So the only real combo is CDU-SPD. The SPD knows this and may play hard to get but this is not the time for that.

 

[Nithavela]

I live in a strongly FPTP democracy. I am not sure what is expected to happen with negotiations for a coalition. Is Friedrich Merz under any obligation or commitment to partner with any particular other party? Is he free to talk to all of them and just pick his favourite? Will the news follow who is saying what in the negotiations for a coalition, or is it all done in private until he has a deal?

German election results live: Friedrich Merz calls for ‘independence’ from US after election win

Generally the winning party privately talks with any number of parties that are relatively compatible and then deepens negotiations with their preferred option based on those initial talks.

In this case, it will almost certainly be a coalition between Merz's CDU (conservative) and SPD (social democrats). This coalition used to be called the "Große Koalition", or "grand coalition", but that name is from a time when both parties combined represented 80% of seats.

 

[Nithavela]

The only possible numerical combinations are CDU-SPD or CDU-AFD. The second is politically infeasible. No left-wing combination would have the votes unless they ally with the AFD to exclude the CDU. That is politically impossible. So the only real combo is CDU-SPD. The SPD knows this and may play hard to get but this is not the time for that.

If the SPD plays too hard to get, the CDU might try to ally with the AFD instead, like in Austria. I wouldn't call it completely impossible, though Merz likely would prefer becoming chancellor without breaking his word again.

 

[Nithavela]

I am hopeful that the time is indeed right for restoring links between EU and the UK and I think Merz is very sympathetic to UK concerns about migration so that will be less of an obstacle to a deal - even if freedom of movement remains off the table.

This movement is worrying as basically world democracy is now a divided kingdom and that does not bode well for the freedom agenda. Also, there are major transitional vulnerabilities in redefining the world as multipolar. This could be an intensely unstable time. There is an urgency to establish a coalition as soon as possible in Germany but the differences between the parties are very profound. A worrying aspect of this election is the size of the vote for the anti-immigrant/anti-EU AFD which is wrong on its two main policies and populated by unhinged conspiracy nuts. Also, the rise of Die Linke (The Communists) is deeply disturbing - how could people be so stupid?

Die Linke is not communists, but socialists. There is a communist party, which only got a tiny amount of votes.

I rather have them in the Bundestag than Sahra Wagenknecht's lickspittles of the BSW.

 

[Nithavela]

Thanks, I just noticed the small print in your sig .

Can anyone else try to form a coalition faster than him, and therefore get power instead?

Can the AdF end up in power by getting to an agreement with someone ahead of the CDU, since there is a time pressure?

Theoretically yes, but this is not done and also would never happen with the AFD (not adf).

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

I don't think a China pivot is on the cards - Europe got burned by reliance on one dictatorial power rather recently.

I suspect that the emphasis will initially be on expanding relationships with other, more stable, trading partners. Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, New Zealand (and even the UK).

Secondary moves would be to expand bilateral relations with ASEAN states, and some of the more stable (and less repressive) MENA states.

I agree.

Europe should not replace the US with China, but instead stand independently and form alliances with countries that share similar values such as Canada, Australia, and Japan. These countries may also prefer to form alliances with Europe instead of the USA because, if the EU-USA alliance were to break, other countries may hesitate to trust the US for long-term partnerships.

As an American, I am horrified and saddened by the new world order. However, given the prevalent perspectives of my fellow citizens towards Europe, this outcome seems inevitable.

 

[RamiC]

Theoretically yes, but this is not done and also would never happen with the AFD (not adf).

I would edit my post to correct it, but yours would look odd if I did that.

It is a bit of a worry looking at the share of the vote they got.

 

[JSRG]

The only possible numerical combinations are CDU-SPD or CDU-AFD. The second is politically infeasible. No left-wing combination would have the votes unless they ally with the AFD to exclude the CDU. That is politically impossible. So the only real combo is CDU-SPD. The SPD knows this and may play hard to get but this is not the time for that.

Technically speaking, there is one other possible numerical combination to get a majority, which would be CDU-Green-Left. But the CDU (which is to the right of the SPD) choosing to team up with the Greens and Left instead of the SPD would be utterly bizarre given that the Greens and the Left are more left wing than the SPD. But numerically, it gets a majority.

 

[Nithavela]

Technically speaking, there is one other possible numerical combination to get a majority, which would be CDU-Green-Left. But the CDU (which is to the right of the SPD) choosing to team up with the Greens and Left instead of the SPD would be utterly bizarre given that the Greens and the Left are more left wing than the SPD. But numerically, it gets a majority.

I could see the CDU working with the green party. It's been done on the state level already. But the left party? No chance.