Is the job market and the USA economy good?

mark46 said:

In the end, we will be able to produce more goods and services (GDP) with fewer and fewer workers.

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Yes, I have to wonder who will the consumers be. Further divide between the haves and have nots.

mark46 said:

...the best economy in the world.
...the richest country in the world...

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The USA are the 9th richest country in the world, when measured per capita:



Which would still be great, if the US economy was better designed for more common people to participate in its growth, indeed.

Akita Suggagaki said:

Thanks.
The economic indicator, which Rosenberg calls the "full model," suggests there's an 85% chance of a recession striking within the next 12 months.

The US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the Great Financial Crisis, economist David Rosenberg says

"Our conviction that the recession has been delayed but not derailed is still running at a high level," David Rosenberg said.

finance.yahoo.com

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That's what they said 12 months ago.

trophy33 said:

Its both a leading indicator and causal element of recessions. When investors do not trust the US economy, they prefer the long term bonds, which lowers their yields. And, in the same time, Fed raises the interest rates to fight inflation, which raises the short term bonds yields.

When this happens for a significant amount of time or to a significant depth, it has been always followed by a recession, since 1960.

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A recession is part of the market cycle, so one is ALWAYS coming at some point. Winter is coming, too.

NxNW said:

A recession is part of the market cycle, so one is ALWAYS coming at some point. Winter is coming, too.

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And as the falling leaves in autumn are a leading indicator of winters, so also the yield curve inversion and de-inversion are a leading indicator of recessions.

essentialsaltes said:

How has "hiring slowed", when the February jobs number was bigger than January's?

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How many are part time jobs and people taking a second job to get by?

trophy33 said:

The USA are the 9th richest country in the world, when measured per capita:

Which would still be great, if the US economy was better designed for more common people to participate in its growth, indeed.

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fair enough

I agree

I would think that the common people are much more satisfied with their lots in life in any of the European countries listed, plus SIngapore. I suspect that is also true of Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

trophy33 said:

The USA are the 9th richest country in the world, when measured per capita:

Which would still be great, if the US economy was better designed for more common people to participate in its growth, indeed.

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The common people would be much better off with a better safety net. Our health care and education delivery systems are simply broken.

Let us just say that Singapore and the European countries don't expect their top middle class students in STEM courses to pay $90K to attend a top school.

trophy33 said:

And as the falling leaves in autumn are a leading indicator of winters, so also the yield curve inversion and de-inversion are a leading indicator of recessions.

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Winter is predictable. Recessions are not.

BPPLEE said:

How many are part time jobs and people taking a second job to get by?

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So now jobs are a bad thing. Move the goalposts much?

NxNW said:

So now jobs are a bad thing. Move the goalposts much?

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When we’re losing full time jobs and adding nothing but part time jobs that’s not a good thing. And people coming back to work after the pandemic are not really Created jobs

Ceallaigh said:

Sure only the right cranks out made up nonsense.

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I never said that, because I don't believe that to be the case. But if we were to weigh which side leans more heavily on made up nonsense, it's quite clearly the right.

Ceallaigh said:

Of course those on the left are intellectuals with highly proficient scientific minds vs the troglodytes on the right.

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No, it isn't that extreme. But there's a reason that professionals almost never adopt right-wing dogma about the field in which they have expertise.

trophy33 said:

Its both a leading indicator and causal element of recessions. When investors do not trust the US economy, they prefer the long term bonds, which lowers their yields. And, in the same time, Fed raises the interest rates to fight inflation, which raises the short term bonds yields.

When this happens for a significant amount of time or to a significant depth, it has been always followed by a recession, since 1960.

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While the yield curve has had some correlation with recessions, what (IME) often goes without being pointed out is that it's just built on the opinions of people. Yes, there is a lot of value to be had crowdsourcing certain information, but ultimately it's still flawed because people's understandings of how things work is also flawed.

BPPLEE said:

... people coming back to work after the pandemic are not really Created jobs

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Anything that helps us recover from the Trump Recession is a good thing.

NxNW said:

Anything that helps us recover from the Trump Recession is a good thing.

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I knew you would be back

NxNW said:

Winter is predictable. Recessions are not.

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This indicator predicted every recession since 1960.

BPPLEE said:

I knew you would be back

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"They always come back".

iluvatar5150 said:

it's just built on the opinions of people.

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Yes, but then so much of the economy is that way. The stock market is a joke.

Akita Suggagaki said:

Yes, but then so much of the economy is that way. The stock market is a joke.

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Stock prices follow earnings in the long run, and that's no joke.

BPPLEE said:

I knew you would be back

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Just like the US economy is back!

Ceallaigh said:

Sure only the right cranks out made up nonsense.

Of course those on the left are intellectuals with highly proficient scientific minds vs the troglodytes on the right.

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As I was going around the house today, doing my usual Sunday morning routine of cleaning the house while listening to political-ish podcasts and I was reminded of a thread I started a while ago asking for references for certain perspectives from the Right. It's very common on the Left for folks to look at Trump voters or the Right more broadly and wonder "Why?". Why do people on the Right believe what they believe, why to they vote for the people they vote for, etc. And then these folks write op-eds and blog posts and books about what they've discovered. There's a bunch of skepticism within these questions and, to be fair, more condescension than I'm comfortable with, but there is still a lot of genuine curiosity about something that these folks don't understand.

You may recall the thread since you participated in it, but to recap: I asked in this thread if there were folks on the Right asking similar questions about the Left. I couldn't recall having heard of any, but I assumed that some existed and that the folks here would be able to drop a couple names. It was a sincere question and I was willing to entertain answers. However, not only did nobody have any real suggestions (one person tried, but their suggestion fell well short of the mark), multiple people struggled with the question and a few openly derided the very concept. One (in a since-edited comment) even equated Dems with the devil.

If the Right is as incurious as that thread suggested, then yes, your side will be the one dominated by nonsense. Your side will be the one abandoned by the curious and the knowledgable. If not one person on the Right read that thread and said, "I don't know of any, but would like to find some," then that's a problem. I've been in groups in the past where I was surrounded by people who thought they knew everything and that all of the outsiders were stupid, and I was embarrassed by it. Why aren't you embarrassed by it?