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Discussion and Debate
Discussion and Debate
Physical & Life Sciences
Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts
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<blockquote data-quote="Halbhh" data-source="post: 77680464" data-attributes="member: 375234"><p>Since warming of the surface of earth (land, air, water), no matter what cause or combinations of causes, will then lead to that <strong>warmer air</strong> above the surface always then <strong>holding more water than cooler air would hold </strong> (and when a given air mass with a lot of water vapor cools, it rains, since the air can no longer hold as much water at a cooler temperature) -- this means any graph that graphs the surface temperature against the amount of water vapor in the air MUST correlate perfectly.</p><p></p><p>No matter what causes warming, the total water in the air must follow the temperature perfectly.</p><p></p><p>Just as your graph shows.</p><p></p><p>Because Earth has open standing -- water, oceans, lakes.</p><p></p><p>But regarding the GWP of water vapor, the wiki reports: "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapour" target="_blank">Water vapour</a> does contribute to anthropogenic global warming, but as the GWP is defined, it is negligible for H2O: an estimate gives a 100-year GWP between -0.001 and 0.0005.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential#cite_note-25" target="_blank">[25]</a>"</p><p></p><p>Water vapor helps retain heat in the atmosphere also, so why is the GWP so low? </p><p></p><p>As I think of it in analogy: it's anagolous to when someone turns the handle on a motorcycle for more gas to the engine -- as you turn the handle, the engine increases its power output. But the cause of the greater engine power in the analogy isn't really the engine or even the gasoline in the tank, but in our analogy, the overall causation here is from the turn on the handle to put more gas into the engine, analogy wise. In parallel, while water vapor is sorta like the gas in the tank -- it flows into the engine more in response.... so, the water vapor is like a <em>response</em>, even though it also <em>participates </em>in retaining heat.</p><p></p><p>But this will be something you'll like: more about what water does, how even though it's not the driver, it's still participating:</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/[/URL]</p><p></p><p><em>Some people mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor doesn’t cause global warming. Instead, it’s a consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases.</em></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Halbhh, post: 77680464, member: 375234"] Since warming of the surface of earth (land, air, water), no matter what cause or combinations of causes, will then lead to that [B]warmer air[/B] above the surface always then [B]holding more water than cooler air would hold [/B] (and when a given air mass with a lot of water vapor cools, it rains, since the air can no longer hold as much water at a cooler temperature) -- this means any graph that graphs the surface temperature against the amount of water vapor in the air MUST correlate perfectly. No matter what causes warming, the total water in the air must follow the temperature perfectly. Just as your graph shows. Because Earth has open standing -- water, oceans, lakes. But regarding the GWP of water vapor, the wiki reports: "[URL='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapour']Water vapour[/URL] does contribute to anthropogenic global warming, but as the GWP is defined, it is negligible for H2O: an estimate gives a 100-year GWP between -0.001 and 0.0005.[URL='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential#cite_note-25'][25][/URL]" Water vapor helps retain heat in the atmosphere also, so why is the GWP so low? As I think of it in analogy: it's anagolous to when someone turns the handle on a motorcycle for more gas to the engine -- as you turn the handle, the engine increases its power output. But the cause of the greater engine power in the analogy isn't really the engine or even the gasoline in the tank, but in our analogy, the overall causation here is from the turn on the handle to put more gas into the engine, analogy wise. In parallel, while water vapor is sorta like the gas in the tank -- it flows into the engine more in response.... so, the water vapor is like a [I]response[/I], even though it also [I]participates [/I]in retaining heat. But this will be something you'll like: more about what water does, how even though it's not the driver, it's still participating: [URL unfurl="true"]https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/[/URL] [I]Some people mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor doesn’t cause global warming. Instead, it’s a consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases.[/I] [/QUOTE]
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