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Discussion and Debate
Discussion and Debate
Physical & Life Sciences
Climate threats = FIRES: Famine, Instability, Refugees, Extinctions, Super-storms
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<blockquote data-quote="eclipsenow" data-source="post: 77666015" data-attributes="member: 274355"><p>I found another report.</p><p>It's not fun.</p><p></p><p>In developed economies we find it hard to imagine relying on something as arbitrary as the weather for your income.</p><p>Only 4% of the workforce is on the land, growing stuff for their income. For their food, and ours.</p><p></p><p>But in developing nations that can be up to 50% of the population. They're in small scale farming, feeding their family and maybe having a little left over for sale. These farms are only possible in certain temperature and weather zones - certain micro-climate bands across the planet. As the global climate heats up and the weather patterns change, those bands are going to shift. Profoundly. More than they have in 10,000 years. </p><p>So based on these climate bands, how many people might be on the move by 2100?</p><p></p><p>Xu et al May 2020 says that under IPPC models (RCP’s - Representative Concentration Pathways) by 2100 we would have the following refugee numbers:</p><p></p><p>RCP2.6 scenario (2 degrees) - around <strong>1.5 billion</strong>. </p><p></p><p>RCP8.5 scenario (or "business as usual" - 4.3 degrees by 2100) - around 3.5 billion people! </p><p><a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910114117" target="_blank">https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910114117</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="eclipsenow, post: 77666015, member: 274355"] I found another report. It's not fun. In developed economies we find it hard to imagine relying on something as arbitrary as the weather for your income. Only 4% of the workforce is on the land, growing stuff for their income. For their food, and ours. But in developing nations that can be up to 50% of the population. They're in small scale farming, feeding their family and maybe having a little left over for sale. These farms are only possible in certain temperature and weather zones - certain micro-climate bands across the planet. As the global climate heats up and the weather patterns change, those bands are going to shift. Profoundly. More than they have in 10,000 years. So based on these climate bands, how many people might be on the move by 2100? Xu et al May 2020 says that under IPPC models (RCP’s - Representative Concentration Pathways) by 2100 we would have the following refugee numbers: RCP2.6 scenario (2 degrees) - around [B]1.5 billion[/B]. RCP8.5 scenario (or "business as usual" - 4.3 degrees by 2100) - around 3.5 billion people! [URL]https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910114117[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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Discussion and Debate
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Climate threats = FIRES: Famine, Instability, Refugees, Extinctions, Super-storms
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