cavell
11th July 2006, 04:41 PM
Disengagement was "cardinal strategic error"
EX-IDF Chief of Staff spells out why Israel will pay painful price for pullout
By Stan Goodenough
July 09, 2006
Israel has been sucked into a situation in the Gaza Strip the end of which is not in sight nor can even be estimated, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told his cabinet at their weekly meeting Sunday.
Olmert described the IDF anti-terrorism operation in the Strip as "a war for which it is impossible to set a timetable."
He has insisted the IDF will not leave Gaza and agree to a ceasefire with the Arabs until kidnapped IDF corporal Gilad Shalit has been safely returned.
But as the war entered its second week, with around 50 "Palestinians" killed and many more wounded, international pressure is mounting for Jerusalem to pull back its troops.
United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan has urged the Security Council to intervene and demand an Israeli withdrawal.
Mass anti-Israel demonstrations are taking place in Turkey and other Islamic states.
Kassam rockets continue to fall daily on and around Israeli homes.
And the Israeli press is starting to ask whether last year's abandoning of the Gaza Strip was not a rather serious mistake after all.
According to former IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Moseh Ayalon, it was more than a mistake:
"The disengagement was a cardinal strategic error," he told the Israeli leftist daily Ha'aretz at the weekend.
He listed the reasons why.
* It led to the victory of Hamas. * It provided a tailwind for terrorism. * It nourished the Palestinian struggle for years to come. * It gave the Iranians and the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaida the feeling that Israel can be defeated. That Israel really is a spider-web society, as Nasrallah claims, or a rotten tree, as Ahmadinejad claims.
"Thus the disengagement did severe damage not only to Israel, it also damaged the U.S. regional strategy of the war against terrorism. It gave extreme Islam the feeling that just as it defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan, it defeated us in Gaza and will defeat us in the West Bank and will defeat us also in Tel Aviv.
In this way, as it already once undermined a world power, it will now undermine the West by defeating Israel."
Most seriously, he said, the disengagement had created "four dangerous precedents."
The precedent of withdrawal to the Green Line. "This will make things very difficult for us in Judea and Samaria when we come to demand territories that are vital for our security."
The precedent of the evacuation of settlements without receiving anything in return. The result of that was that the evacuation of settlements in Judea and Samaria was now perceived "as being self-evident and not as a painful move in return for which Israel receives what it needs for its existence and security."
The precedent of forgoing "Palestinian" demilitarization and forgoing supervision of the borders between "Palestine" and Israel. "This precedent did away with a vital Israeli demand, which was part of the Oslo Accords and of every peace agreement that was talked about in the past."
The gravest precedent of all: "Israel undertook all the concessions entailed in the disengagement without obtaining international recognition that the occupation of Gaza has ended." Despite all Israel had done, she was still perceived as being responsible for the fate of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Ya'alon believes that "the situation will only get worse with time" and that soon Israel will find itself facing a "kingdom of terror" capable of launching more rockets of greater range and greater effectiveness into Israel.
The former chief of staff, who was removed by the Sharon government precisely because he would not support the disengagement plan, spoke darkly of what awaited Israel if Olmert insisted on going ahead with his "convergence" plan - the abandonment of Samaria and Judea.
" [I]f we now try to continue the failed disengagement with the convergence, the result will be grave. We will give terrorism a terrible tailwind. We will provide a tailwind for radical Islam across the region. We will create a strategic threat to Jerusalem and to Ben-Gurion Airport and to the population centers of the coastal plain.
"The Kassams and the Katyushas will no longer be S'derot's problem. They will reach the front door in Tel Aviv."
EX-IDF Chief of Staff spells out why Israel will pay painful price for pullout
By Stan Goodenough
July 09, 2006
Israel has been sucked into a situation in the Gaza Strip the end of which is not in sight nor can even be estimated, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told his cabinet at their weekly meeting Sunday.
Olmert described the IDF anti-terrorism operation in the Strip as "a war for which it is impossible to set a timetable."
He has insisted the IDF will not leave Gaza and agree to a ceasefire with the Arabs until kidnapped IDF corporal Gilad Shalit has been safely returned.
But as the war entered its second week, with around 50 "Palestinians" killed and many more wounded, international pressure is mounting for Jerusalem to pull back its troops.
United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan has urged the Security Council to intervene and demand an Israeli withdrawal.
Mass anti-Israel demonstrations are taking place in Turkey and other Islamic states.
Kassam rockets continue to fall daily on and around Israeli homes.
And the Israeli press is starting to ask whether last year's abandoning of the Gaza Strip was not a rather serious mistake after all.
According to former IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Moseh Ayalon, it was more than a mistake:
"The disengagement was a cardinal strategic error," he told the Israeli leftist daily Ha'aretz at the weekend.
He listed the reasons why.
* It led to the victory of Hamas. * It provided a tailwind for terrorism. * It nourished the Palestinian struggle for years to come. * It gave the Iranians and the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaida the feeling that Israel can be defeated. That Israel really is a spider-web society, as Nasrallah claims, or a rotten tree, as Ahmadinejad claims.
"Thus the disengagement did severe damage not only to Israel, it also damaged the U.S. regional strategy of the war against terrorism. It gave extreme Islam the feeling that just as it defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan, it defeated us in Gaza and will defeat us in the West Bank and will defeat us also in Tel Aviv.
In this way, as it already once undermined a world power, it will now undermine the West by defeating Israel."
Most seriously, he said, the disengagement had created "four dangerous precedents."
The precedent of withdrawal to the Green Line. "This will make things very difficult for us in Judea and Samaria when we come to demand territories that are vital for our security."
The precedent of the evacuation of settlements without receiving anything in return. The result of that was that the evacuation of settlements in Judea and Samaria was now perceived "as being self-evident and not as a painful move in return for which Israel receives what it needs for its existence and security."
The precedent of forgoing "Palestinian" demilitarization and forgoing supervision of the borders between "Palestine" and Israel. "This precedent did away with a vital Israeli demand, which was part of the Oslo Accords and of every peace agreement that was talked about in the past."
The gravest precedent of all: "Israel undertook all the concessions entailed in the disengagement without obtaining international recognition that the occupation of Gaza has ended." Despite all Israel had done, she was still perceived as being responsible for the fate of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Ya'alon believes that "the situation will only get worse with time" and that soon Israel will find itself facing a "kingdom of terror" capable of launching more rockets of greater range and greater effectiveness into Israel.
The former chief of staff, who was removed by the Sharon government precisely because he would not support the disengagement plan, spoke darkly of what awaited Israel if Olmert insisted on going ahead with his "convergence" plan - the abandonment of Samaria and Judea.
" [I]f we now try to continue the failed disengagement with the convergence, the result will be grave. We will give terrorism a terrible tailwind. We will provide a tailwind for radical Islam across the region. We will create a strategic threat to Jerusalem and to Ben-Gurion Airport and to the population centers of the coastal plain.
"The Kassams and the Katyushas will no longer be S'derot's problem. They will reach the front door in Tel Aviv."