Fossil Fuel Dependency

[SPALATIN]

This country is addicted to fossil fuels in the worst way and it is going to be the death of our free-enterprise system because it will soon cost many Americans their homes, jobs, transportation etc. Companies are not giving out the raises they once did and employees are underpaid while the rate of inflation is taking a tremendous effect on expendable income.

What are some ways we can influence our local governments and in effect influencing our federal government to helping us get off this dependency before it is too late? I fear our way of life is already damaged beyond repair especially as the price of Oil gets closer and closer to the $100/per barrel price that experts say is a fore gone conclusion.

In Minneapolis/St. Paul we put in our first Light rail system last year. This system cost us hundreds of millions of dollars, but ridership has proved to be high since the time it has opened. I think cities like this need to put more lines up to affect more people's ability to take public transportation rather than drive. Urban sprawl has to stop.

Are any of you agreeing with this or disagreeing with this? Why?

[ChiRho]

This country is addicted to fossil fuels in the worst way and it is going to be the death of our free-enterprise system because it will soon cost many Americans their homes, jobs, transportation etc. Companies are not giving out the raises they once did and employees are underpaid while the rate of inflation is taking a tremendous effect on expendable income.

What are some ways we can influence our local governments and in effect influencing our federal government to helping us get off this dependency before it is too late? I fear our way of life is already damaged beyond repair especially as the price of Oil gets closer and closer to the $100/per barrel price that experts say is a fore gone conclusion.

In Minneapolis/St. Paul we put in our first Light rail system last year. This system cost us hundreds of millions of dollars, but ridership has proved to be high since the time it has opened. I think cities like this need to put more lines up to affect more people's ability to take public transportation rather than drive. Urban sprawl has to stop.

Are any of you agreeing with this or disagreeing with this? Why?


Lift the taxes. Lift the regulations. Leave Iraq. Allow for drilling, by private companies, in Alaska. Basically less gubmint, more business. That is how all matters like this are solved. How much tax is there on a gallon of gas? It varies in each State, but usually you can subtract 25% (including federal tax).

[knee-v]

I say get more non-fossil fuel energy plants. I am a big proponent of nuclear power plants, being in that field myself. Eventually, the fossil fuels will be depleted. It's just a matter of time. We take it for granted that there is all this oil. Well, nothing lasts forever.

[Tetzel]

Coal

[Protoevangel]

Bottled man-made gas...

Eat more beans!!! :D

[Colabomb]

ethanol

[BigNorsk]

We throw away much of the energy we use, not even doing any work with it.

Mass transit is one of the ways to greatly cut down on energy usage. Think of that as buses and trains. Its really shameful how we have neglected the rail system in this country. We should be transporting a lot more people and a lot more freight by rail than we are.

Hasn't been a lot of call for commuter trains and buses, but move gas up to $3 and people will change their ways, either they are going to give up a lot of other things, or get higher efficiency autos, or accept the ride on a mass transit system. Of course you will probably see at least a short term rise in popularity of car-pooling again. When I was in San Francisco last year, the Metro had just been extended, the value of home in the newly served area jumped several hundred thousands of dollars. I haven't seen that happening in Minneapolis just yet, maybe moving to be close to the light rail would be advantageous of your financial future, especially if energy continues to rise.

One way to save even more fuel is cut out the trip entirely. You are on here enough Scott that I find it hard to believe you couldn't do your job at home, with an occassional trip to "work". A major limiting factor has been that most managers haven't got a clue how to manage people they can't see. As the internet generation grows up, that question will become moot. My daughter thinks it is normal to talk to 20 people or more at the same time. And she can't figure out why you would need to see someone in order to tell if they are working and even if you did need to see them, a little internet camera will accomplish that.

Same with flight, how many people fly from one coast to the other for a business meeting where the only thing being done is for the customer to place the "usual order." Those of us who are older still tend to think in terms of relationships forged in face-to-face meetings. With time, I believe many of those same meetings will be seen as unecessary intrusions into the business of running a business. The best run businesses are going to figure out how to cut down on the constant meetings so many currently require.

I think it's a funny cycle that people leave the rural areas to move to the cities in order to be successful. Once in the city the mark of being successful is to have a place in the country. Last Sunday, as I was driving out of Minneapolis, traffic was backed up just about to St. Cloud, a distance of about 60 miles for those who don't know. Those people probably spent a signicant amount of time on Friday trying to escape their beloved city, and a significant amount of Sunday trying to get back. Seems wasteful to me. It's funny, if you ask people why they live in the cities they will tell you that it's due to all the wonderful things there, but as quickly and as often as they can they flee from all those wonderful things moving the city out to the country.

That's enough society things, on to energy.

One thing is that people are thinking energy, even oil is scarce. It is not. What we are seeing is a rapidly escalating demand in a secture that supply comes from long term projects. It takes years to bring a new plant online. Whether it is a nuclear power plant, an new electric plant or exploring, finding and developing an oil field. Note that prices were significantly lower just a relatively short time ago. Just hasn't been enough time to respond.

For instance, it was just announce that there is a diesel from coal plant going to be built in North Dakota, it would produce the equivalent of 10,000 barrels of oil a day from coal, it could be ramped up to 50,000 barrels if so desired. It is viable as long as oil is over $30 a barrel. Sounds good so far, but it will take 5 to 7 years to come on line. We are also home of the gassification plant which converts coal to natural gas. That plant came within a hair of closing several times. Looks like a great idea right now. At one time, when it was built, there were so many gassification plants on the drawing board that if they had all been built, they would have used more water than was available in the Missouri River. Natural Gas prices changed and they were never built.

Canada has more oil in their tar sand than Saudi Arabia as does the US in it's oil shales. Technology is continually lowering the cost to extract these oils. Current price of extracting oil from tar sands is under $20 a barrel, yet no big rush to mine, why kill the golden goose?

Fuels can be made from biomass. Alcohol through fermentation of starches and cellulose. Oils from extraction or other processes to make oil from almost any biomass. We can make good oil from most anything in your garbage. Natural gas can be made through aneorobic digestion. Many technologies are viable at today's oil prices, all you have to do is convince investors that oil will stay at these prices, which if too many of these project get built too fast, will not happen.

Nuclear can certainly play a role as it does on a world basis. There are reactors that can use the "spent" fuel from current reactors or even to decommission weapons grade material. You may have noticed that the US ships nuclear weapons to France for decommissioning because we haven't built such a reactor here. I don't understand why we aren't using current generator technology to reduce nuclear waste significantly. New designs also are much safer, and several are almost impossible to make them go critical. They are self-regulating, and shut down if inputs quit. There is a pellet based nuclear plant in the just passed energy bill, it's a pretty safe design though not my favorite of the possible designs of a new plant. It will be interesting to see if it actually gets built.

We currently waste heat from many sources, plans are underway to build ethanol plants in association with power plants. The ethanol can basically be distilled with energy that is currently being thrown away.

So a lot of ways that things can be done of which I have only mentioned a very few. For instance it has been estimated that just the wind power available in North Dakota could potentially replace much of the oil power we currently use. Biggest problem is the trasportation system to be able to get the electricity to where it is consumed. Most of the people in Minneapolis and most other cities could have cars which charge up at night for tomorrows commute. They will probably also have engines in case the batteries run low to recharge the batteries. But the majority of the time they won't need to.

Interestingly, Jimmy Carter was the only President to reduce our dependance on foreign oil, and we didn't even reelect him. Something which is really a good indication of how high energy independance has been on the American Political radar screen.

Indeed many politicians have pointed to our wastefullness with pride seeing it as as proof the "the American Way" is working.

What can we do? Well there's all those boring things, insulation. Good building techniques, efficient lighting, even turning an occassional bulb off, front load washing machines. Eliminating or sharing driving, and making fuel efficiency a priority. You can significantly increase you fuel mileage if you and the rest of those commuters slow down 5 or 10 miles per hour. Maybe even drive under the speed limit, a form of behavior that seems quite rare. Turn up the thermostats in the summer and down in winter. Eliminate trips to stores, pick things up on the way home, or try something real high tech like a shopping list. Close and open drapes to conserve energy, have your furnace checked, change the filter so the fan motor doesn't work so hard. Put in a more efficient model. Recycle where it works, like aluminum cans.

It's a whole bunch of little things, that really add up. Many people could, with little expense drop their energy consumption 10 to 25%. If enough people did that, gas would rapidly drop due to decreased demand. It doesn't matter too much which form of energy you save very much. They are all related and tend to substitute for each other and put pressure on each other.

You are correct that energy costs are a major concern, and as by far the largest consumers of energy in the world, it does indeed threaten our very way of life. I don't think that will come to pass though, to many alternatives. But it will certainly squeeze people in the meantime.

There is quite a potential on the retail end that this next Christmas could be the one that wasn't. Have that happen and watch recession rear it's ugly head. I will actually be surprised if we aren't in the middle of a major recession in a couple of years. Things just aren't growing fast enough to absorb the increase in energy costs. Especially with the already huge deficit and the buying of votes that is current practice in government. The deficit takes away our ability to manage our money enough to avoid it this time. Would probably take the banks paying customers to take money. Not going to happen.

Well that certainly sounds cheerfull doesn't it.

In the end, it won't matter much. It will still be heaven for some and hell for many.

Marv

[indra_fanatic]

SLS, very relevant thoughts.

There are several issues at hand:

(1) Rampant OVERPOPULATION. While I am aware that the overwhelming majority of America's recent population growth is due to immigration and that the birth rate of U.S. citizens is only approximately 2.1 children/woman, it strains resources just the same. If even 10% of citizens now entering childbearing age had only one child, or none, or decided to adopt, a huge impact would be made.
(2) Obsession with gas-guzzling vehicles. While the exponential prices of fuel have finally killed this, you've gotta remember that for the past seven years or so everyone and their dog was buying light trucks and SUVs because they were the trendy thing (my own mother and uncle included, lol, but my mom got rid of hers because increasing arthritis in her legs made the step-up too great for her to take). That's a LOT of thirsty vehicles on the road.
(3) Refusals by Congress to tighten mileage standards. The technology has existed for nearly ten years to create passenger cars with the mileage of a Prius, but it just wouldn't be profitable for anyone--any more than employing agricultural robots would be to agriconglomerates that are slavishly addicted to undocumented migrants that are paid dirt wages.
(4) Close relationships between elected officials, including the Oval Office, and petroleum interests and allied Middle Eastern oligarchs (i.e. King Abdullah). Basically, our leaders are going to answer to those who make it possible to run for office and win elections, which sure as heck ain't paupers like us.
(5) Fuel reserves that are being untapped. There is at least enough petroleum proven to be latent in Alaska, and off the California coast, to meet part of our needs for many years while(i.e. remove our dependency from Saudi Arabia, which currently accounts for about 16% of our oil), but it is completely off-limits due to environmental fiats. 16% may not seem like a lot, but every bit helps.
(6) Fuel demands from the rapidly developing nations of Asia's Third World (i.e. China, India, Pakistan). This is probably the single biggest factor behind the astronomical rises in gas prices. What's tragic is that most recent runaway economic growth in these nations is due to the creation there of jobs that once were held by Westerners. While obviously no one deserves to live in poverty, it is shameful that this Eastern prosperity is coming at the contraction of the number of jobs elsewhere in the world and a worldwide depression of wages for those workers lucky enough not to get outsourced.

Yes, it is a depressing subject that will only get worse.

Brian

[SPALATIN]

We throw away much of the energy we use, not even doing any work with it.

Mass transit is one of the ways to greatly cut down on energy usage. Think of that as buses and trains. Its really shameful how we have neglected the rail system in this country. We should be transporting a lot more people and a lot more freight by rail than we are.

Hasn't been a lot of call for commuter trains and buses, but move gas up to $3 and people will change their ways, either they are going to give up a lot of other things, or get higher efficiency autos, or accept the ride on a mass transit system. Of course you will probably see at least a short term rise in popularity of car-pooling again. When I was in San Francisco last year, the Metro had just been extended, the value of home in the newly served area jumped several hundred thousands of dollars. I haven't seen that happening in Minneapolis just yet, maybe moving to be close to the light rail would be advantageous of your financial future, especially if energy continues to rise.

One way to save even more fuel is cut out the trip entirely. You are on here enough Scott that I find it hard to believe you couldn't do your job at home, with an occassional trip to "work". A major limiting factor has been that most managers haven't got a clue how to manage people they can't see. As the internet generation grows up, that question will become moot. My daughter thinks it is normal to talk to 20 people or more at the same time. And she can't figure out why you would need to see someone in order to tell if they are working and even if you did need to see them, a little internet camera will accomplish that.

Marv,

Would that I could stay at home and work, but the type of work that I do will not allow me to and the software we use is priority secure which means that the information can not leave the building. I also have to have access to the files now and again. If I could find a company that would allow me to work from home it wouldn't take much convincing especially if it would pay me a good salary.




Indeed many politicians have pointed to our wastefullness with pride seeing it as as proof the "the American Way" is working.

What can we do? Well there's all those boring things, insulation. Good building techniques, efficient lighting, even turning an occassional bulb off, front load washing machines. Eliminating or sharing driving, and making fuel efficiency a priority. You can significantly increase you fuel mileage if you and the rest of those commuters slow down 5 or 10 miles per hour. Maybe even drive under the speed limit, a form of behavior that seems quite rare. Turn up the thermostats in the summer and down in winter. Eliminate trips to stores, pick things up on the way home, or try something real high tech like a shopping list. Close and open drapes to conserve energy, have your furnace checked, change the filter so the fan motor doesn't work so hard. Put in a more efficient model. Recycle where it works, like aluminum cans.

It's a whole bunch of little things, that really add up. Many people could, with little expense drop their energy consumption 10 to 25%. If enough people did that, gas would rapidly drop due to decreased demand. It doesn't matter too much which form of energy you save very much. They are all related and tend to substitute for each other and put pressure on each other.

You are correct that energy costs are a major concern, and as by far the largest consumers of energy in the world, it does indeed threaten our very way of life. I don't think that will come to pass though, to many alternatives. But it will certainly squeeze people in the meantime.

There is quite a potential on the retail end that this next Christmas could be the one that wasn't. Have that happen and watch recession rear it's ugly head. I will actually be surprised if we aren't in the middle of a major recession in a couple of years. Things just aren't growing fast enough to absorb the increase in energy costs. Especially with the already huge deficit and the buying of votes that is current practice in government. The deficit takes away our ability to manage our money enough to avoid it this time. Would probably take the banks paying customers to take money. Not going to happen.

Well that certainly sounds cheerfull doesn't it.

In the end, it won't matter much. It will still be heaven for some and hell for many.

Marv


Very insightful. Thank you Marv.

[mnphysicist]

Until gasoline reachs $6-$7/barrel, I don't think much will happen. Gas is still cheaper when you account for inflation than when I learned to drive back in 81. People will continue to drive everywhere using inefficient vehicles.

The sad part is going to be this winter, when we have heating costs shoot through the roof. Thats going to be difficult for many, and there are no easy answers in the short term.

It will be an interesting ride for sure... and the traditional let govt handle it doesn't work. There is a long lead time from policy to effect, and we are still living with the consequences of energy policies from 5-10 years ago.

Ron

[C.F.W. Walther]

It seems to me that the approach here is to find an alternate fuel supply ie biomass, spent uranium etc. Twenty some years ago we received tax supplements from the Feds on alternate energy resources. We could get tax breaks for wind, solar and thermal energy alternatives. People were rapidly installing wind generators, solar heating, compost toilets, solar cells, ram pumps, ground source heat pumps; anything that would take us away from finite fossil fuels. Alternate energy fields were exploding. Technology in this field was exponential but then tax credits were stopped and everything came to a screeching halt. I came from the "hippei" era and that was our concern back then. We knew oil and coal reserves would not last another 50 yeras and, low-and-behold, it's comming true. Why do you think Mother Earth, Backwoods Homes and some 100 other periodicals were spawned?

Alternate sources right now are prohibitive in cost so not many people use them. Since the tax breaks have dried up by political action groups set up by big oil concerns, the only thing the Feds will listen to is where the "money talks". Big multi-nationals reign supreme and it's not in their interest to change from oil based products. Talk aout monoplies!

Everything we touch has some oil based product in it. Plastics, polymeers, drugs, paints, varnishes, shellacs, motors, mylars, ----just about everything. Yes drugs----some cheap multi-vitamins, man made drugs and certain food supplements and food products have oil based derivitives!

Since the Feds will not help then we have to take matters into our own hands. Unfortunately it is an expensive proposition and beyond most homeowners wallets. Seeking legislation again for these tax breaks will be a long, hard uphill battle. We either have to budget ourselves for the alternate sources or put the "heat" to our legistrators. No eay decision.









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