Log in
Register
Search
Search titles only
By:
Search titles only
By:
Forums
New posts
Forum list
Search forums
Leaderboards
Games
Our Blog
Blogs
New entries
New comments
Blog list
Search blogs
Credits
Transactions
Shop
Blessings: ✟0.00
Tickets
Open new ticket
Watched
Donate
Log in
Register
Search
Search titles only
By:
Search titles only
By:
More options
Toggle width
Share this page
Share this page
Share
Reddit
Pinterest
Tumblr
WhatsApp
Email
Share
Link
Menu
Install the app
Install
Forums
Discussion and Debate
Discussion and Debate
Physical & Life Sciences
Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Halbhh" data-source="post: 77658448" data-attributes="member: 375234"><p>Well, from reading dozens of articles/reports over decades, we know that climate is very complex, and therefore models cannot be perfect....</p><p></p><p>So, it's not "sloppy" when a model doesn't predict a big change, but instead is the natural limitation on trying to model something so complex -- we can't always get it right perfectly every time (to within a close outcome near what we predict) -- but only <em>often</em>, at best.</p><p></p><p>Myopic though -- what would be the most myopic of all would be ignoring or discounting the powerful effects of man made CO2 emissions -- which are such a large and powerful primary factor.</p><p></p><p> Someone trying to suggest their climate model is better without CO2 as one of the predominate primary factors would be 'myopic'....</p><p></p><p>A good process is to make models with all the most powerful factors -- gradually improving the models over time. It's like designing a car engine -- gradually an engine can be made more and more reliable over decades of design and real life testing. </p><p></p><p>A model is like that: it's imperfect but can be improved over time with refinements.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Halbhh, post: 77658448, member: 375234"] Well, from reading dozens of articles/reports over decades, we know that climate is very complex, and therefore models cannot be perfect.... So, it's not "sloppy" when a model doesn't predict a big change, but instead is the natural limitation on trying to model something so complex -- we can't always get it right perfectly every time (to within a close outcome near what we predict) -- but only [I]often[/I], at best. Myopic though -- what would be the most myopic of all would be ignoring or discounting the powerful effects of man made CO2 emissions -- which are such a large and powerful primary factor. Someone trying to suggest their climate model is better without CO2 as one of the predominate primary factors would be 'myopic'.... A good process is to make models with all the most powerful factors -- gradually improving the models over time. It's like designing a car engine -- gradually an engine can be made more and more reliable over decades of design and real life testing. A model is like that: it's imperfect but can be improved over time with refinements. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Discussion and Debate
Discussion and Debate
Physical & Life Sciences
Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts
Top
Bottom