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Discussion and Debate
Discussion and Debate
Physical & Life Sciences
Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts
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<blockquote data-quote="eclipsenow" data-source="post: 77655112" data-attributes="member: 274355"><p>Increased heat in heatwaves will be bad enough, and kill a lot of people and hurt economically.</p><p></p><p>But if just ONE super 'wet-bulb' heatwave lands over a significant US city - it could kill millions or tens of millions of American citizens.</p><p></p><p>In the "Ministry for the future" (first chapter <a href="https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-the-future/" target="_blank">free here</a>), India loses (sorry for the spoilers but it's in the second chapter) about 20 million people in the one heatwave! It spurs them to start their own Solar Radiation Management program immediately.</p><p></p><p>I'm not against a <em>little </em>SRM. Dr David Keith models that Solar Radiation Management could offset about half our warming safely - before the side effects became almost as bad as global warming itself. 8 minutes. [MEDIA=youtube]wdQRPUtVrSc[/MEDIA]</p><p></p><p>Smith et al 2018 showed it would be cheap. Back then it was about $2.25 billion annually to eventually hit 0.3 degrees of cooling after 15 years of building out a fleet of planes (at 6 super-wide wing jets per year = 0.02 degrees cooling per 6 jets.) Today let’s call it $4 billion annual costs. That’s not a lot of money if we need it to stop climate change going over 1.5 degrees. <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d#erlaae98ds4" target="_blank">ShieldSquare Error</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="eclipsenow, post: 77655112, member: 274355"] Increased heat in heatwaves will be bad enough, and kill a lot of people and hurt economically. But if just ONE super 'wet-bulb' heatwave lands over a significant US city - it could kill millions or tens of millions of American citizens. In the "Ministry for the future" (first chapter [URL='https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-the-future/']free here[/URL]), India loses (sorry for the spoilers but it's in the second chapter) about 20 million people in the one heatwave! It spurs them to start their own Solar Radiation Management program immediately. I'm not against a [I]little [/I]SRM. Dr David Keith models that Solar Radiation Management could offset about half our warming safely - before the side effects became almost as bad as global warming itself. 8 minutes. [MEDIA=youtube]wdQRPUtVrSc[/MEDIA] Smith et al 2018 showed it would be cheap. Back then it was about $2.25 billion annually to eventually hit 0.3 degrees of cooling after 15 years of building out a fleet of planes (at 6 super-wide wing jets per year = 0.02 degrees cooling per 6 jets.) Today let’s call it $4 billion annual costs. That’s not a lot of money if we need it to stop climate change going over 1.5 degrees. [URL="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d#erlaae98ds4"]ShieldSquare Error[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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